doug
Weather Analyst
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Remembering what Clark posted much earlier today as to what to watch in the synoptic pattern north and west of Fay I note a couple of things. First, in actual experience I was quite surprised to receive the rain we experienced in W.Central Florida today which was generally moving down the state and west to east. Yesterday,the whole scenario of the weakening frontal trough across N. Florida was pushed to the north, and that was expected to continue. To note the change so quickly today was really quite surprising.
The WV loop suggests that the high which is moving along over Fay may have spent its westward energy and the weakness is indeed over S. Florida. This morning I thought it was pushing up the peninsula just north of the lake but this evening it is again south of the lake. The line of difluence between the troughiness to the north and the high to the SE seems to be central Florida.
My point is that Fay will not cross that line and will turn about 100 miles or so east of that line IF I am correct, then that would mean a South Florida solution and not a west coast solution. This scenario seems to be fuled by a vigouous trough over the Great Lakes that pushed south and pushed the frontal trough further south too. This scenario will have to play out tomorrow as well, else a more westward solution would be in play.
I don't see any progress eastward in the ULL over Colorado and don't see that as a player.
We will know more on this in the morning. Fay continues to reorganize and will be stronger tomorrow.
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doug
Edited by doug (Sat Aug 16 2008 09:02 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Just a couple of quick notes to keep in mind...
1) Let's be careful with some of the comparisons. Fay is not as small of a storm as was , nor is it or will it be nearly as strong of a storm as was when it hit Cuba. was a major hurricane when it hit Cuba and spent a relatively short time over land; Fay will not be a major hurricane when it hits Cuba and will likely spend longer over or near land.
Is a strong storm still in the realm of possibility for Fay? Yes. But, the only true comparison to right now is the potential angle of approach to the western Florida coastline. Be prepared for something one category higher than anticipated, but the comparisons to a fast-moving, deepening category 4 hurricane are a bit overdone right now.
2) Bev makes some good comments about focusing on the cone rather than the line down the middle of the cone. This rings especially true for any storm that approaches the coastline close to parallel to the coast. If you are ordered to evacuate and cannot or do not want to go to a shelter near your home, you are best going somewhere to the north and west that is outside of the cone entirely. Two days out, if you live in south Florida, this could be the Big Bend; if you live in Tampa, it could be toward Tallahassee or slightly further west. Better safe than sorry, as small track changes can lead to significant impacts in areas off of that solid line.
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Mike N
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Clark,
So it's almost been 24 hrs since your post earlier today. What observations have taken place since...what are the upper air readings so far. You alluded that these observations every 12 hrs would been key in determining where Fay would go. What have they been and which way are they leaning? I realize this may take into tonight and early tomorrow to become clearer. I just thought I would ask if we were still on track for a west FL solution or if we have deviated from that significantly one way or the other(east or west)? Thanks for your input and dedication as I have followed this site for years but rarely post.
Mike
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I'm not happy with the models. I can see the moisture along the Gulf but I can also see the dry air to the north of the storm slowly evaporating on the WV loop.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
The door way north is very open yet the models have pulled left. They again how can you trust a model that is as fickle as the is (to name one) that switches back and forth like windshield wipers? And, I believe the models are reading Fay as a weak storm which she is but will she stay weak? For some reason I think the more interaction she has with land the more she tends to flare up and tonight there is strong convection forming near her center.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
The ULL to her west is hard to read and looks like it is filling in. And, the moisture in the Gulf is strong but pushing east as it is streaming from Ms to Alabama to northern Florida fast.
I keep feeling something is off here and we are overestimating something or overestimating something.
And... as said she is not nor is she Cleo. Both were stronger storms with more centers that were easier to follow.
Storms do quirky things when they come off of Cuba. That FACT cannot be emphasized enough.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Quote:
Clark,
So it's almost been 24 hrs since your post earlier today. What observations have taken place since...what are the upper air readings so far. You alluded that these observations every 12 hrs would been key in determining where Fay would go. What have they been and which way are they leaning? I realize this may take into tonight and early tomorrow to become clearer. I just thought I would ask if we were still on track for a west FL solution or if we have deviated from that significantly one way or the other(east or west)? Thanks for your input and dedication as I have followed this site for years but rarely post.
Mike
Mike,
The big thing is that the 00Z models have a lot of dropsonde observations from a high-altitude NOAA flight ahead of the storm. While it's still early in the current model cycle with just the and in, we didn't seen any change in the and now the is in the same area as the (whereas before it had been further east). These observations give us a better idea for the current strength of the subtropical ridge, therefore giving the models a better idea of its current strength.
As many studies have shown, small changes in model initial conditions can lead to large changes in short- and medium-term forecasts. Yet, despite having new data, we've not seen those changes. What does that suggest? It suggests that the models had a decent idea on the initial setup of the ridge all along. Comparing the 18 hour forecast from yesterday's 06Z to the current 500 mb pattern, the model had a very good forecast with the cutoff upper low, ridge extent and strength, and east coast trough extent and strength.
Simply put, everything is on track thus far for a landfall somewhere in the midst of the track guidance. Barring any drastic shifts with the rest of the 00Z model guidance, we're starting to narrow down to a FL southwest coast to FL central panhandle landfall. The further ahead we move in time, the more likely internal core processes (mostly intensity) and angle of approach to the coastline will be the main factors that determine where Fay will be heading. Hope this helps.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Nice blow up of convection over the center of Fay in the last 2 hrs... Just in time for AF Recon which is descending down through 10kt heading in to the center. They came from St. Croix. and i would think they'll do like the last plane from St. Croix... do there mission in between the islands then head onto Biloxi, MS. They were at : 18.78N 75.77W Time: 05:07:30Z. So far only mid 40's mph Flight level winds at 5kft.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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That was a very good post Clark. I couldn't of said it better. I notice the 0z is left again..showing this staying west alittle further (but its speed is also slightly faster than the ) in movement. shows more of a turn NNE. I haven't seen the yet. Should be in soon!
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vmzamorano
Registered User
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http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
This is a beta site, but quite interesting, specially for those who know what they are reading ( i can only figure out some of the information)...but that can take you to also a beta site in Google earth, where you can see the recon plane and info as it sends it back...it's amazing... 
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weathernet
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Just read Clark's post as I write this myself. With exception to minor ( or faster ) internal core fluctuations, it would certainly appear that Fay will pass over or near Key West, and then northward from there. Granted, 30-50 miles in the grand scheme of things means little with regards to overall accuracy of forecast. Yet, such a deviation would mean lessor or greater impacts for those on Florida's East coast. Here again, what remains quite uncertain is whether Fay is a tropical storm, a minimal hurricane , or stronger at the point of closest pass to the Keys and S. Florida. Interesting, though Clark made reference to the , the one subtle difference I took from the 0Z data, is that Fay is practically stalled out for approx. 36 hrs. when just over or north of Key West. Could this be indicative of the Central Plains ridge finally building in, yet now temporarily halting the northward motion. If such a COL occured, might we have a strengthening hurricane on our hands? Will be interesting to see if the other models trend towards such a "near stall" of foward motion. Given the rich heat content of the S.W. Gulf waters, this would further add to the impact on much of the southern half of Florida, but most notibly wherever the eventual landfall might occur.
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scottsvb
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I didnt see any model that showed Fay stalled out up to 36hrs near Key West...infact it will probably speed up some once it gets north of Key west...but then again we dont know forsure about where it will be until it turns NNW.
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weathernet
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I stand corrected, however at 42hr. from 0Z run, Fay appears to be basically over Key West ( or close ), and at 66 hr ( which in fact is 24 hr, not 36hr. ), would have only moved to a point off of what appears to be approx. west of Ft. Meyers. In fact not stalled, but moving quite slowly. This slower forward motion appears to me to occur at approx. 36hrs. while Fay, already emerged into the Florida Straights, and just south of Key West.
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chase 22
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Quote:
I didnt see any model that showed Fay stalled out up to 36hrs near Key West...infact it will probably speed up some once it gets north of Key west...but then again we dont know forsure about where it will be until it turns NNW.
Yeah, I don't see the 36 hr stall either, and according to the 2am advisory, she has started her turn...
One thing that I have noticed is the weather we are having in Tampa. It is incredibly calm and very, very humid. The winds have been out of the South for most of the day, and then at around 6pm, they shifted to the North. On another note, the schools here in Tampa are scheduled to open on Monday. The school board will be meeting early this morning to decide whether or not to push the date back, and will make their decision by 11am.
Tampa International Airport and the airline that I work for have also gone into alert mode and will more than likely be going into a full storm activation mode by tonight which means that, if the current forecast is still the same by tonight at 11pm, the airlines will more than likely start canceling flights. So if you have any travel plans into or out of Florida in the next few days, I would definitely be watching this. This is meant to be informative and not meant to make anybody nervous. Just pretty please don't be one of those people (and we all know them) that just say "ahhh it's not gonna hit us. We've NEVER been hit by one. I'm not worried."
Like I said before, it's better to be safe than sorry.
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Matt
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danielw
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These are excerpts from the various NWS Offices in FL. Not all of the Offices have updated their Forecasts.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY EFFECTING SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY) A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING WITH TS FAY IN PLACE SSE OF CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY AS FAY MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS FAY LIFTING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT SW FL MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH AND INCREASING TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IMPACTING WEST CENTRAL FL TUESDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THIS STORM.
LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT) OFFICIAL TRACK OF TS FAY CONTINUES TO IMPACT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL. BY TUE NIGHT TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE CONDITION POSSIBLE AREAWIDE AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE N THRU THE BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST TUE NT INTO WED AND RESIDENTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR THIS SIGNIFICANT WX EVENT. NUMEROUS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS FROM FAY ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL NWS TBW PRODUCTS WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED...AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONCE FAY FINALLY MOVES N OF THE AREA LATER WED WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND HOLDS IN THE REGION FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
BEYOND TODAY... FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 4 TO 6 INCHES RAINFALL AS THE STORM MOVES BY / ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH S FL FORECAST TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD IS AN INCREASE IN THE HELICITIES. GUIDANCE RANGES HELICITY FROM AROUND 150 TO 500 WHICH WILL MOST DEFIANTLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES / MINI SUPER CELLS UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO MID DAY. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO N FL WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WITH HIGH PWATS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA AND A BIT OF CONVERGENCE LEFT OVER THE AREA NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. THURSDAY ON... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FAY...OR WILL IT BE HURRICANE FAY...TO BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE 34-KNOT WIND CONE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK FORECAST NOW JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL CWA...BUT WILL KEEP THE POPS ABOVE CLIMO AND TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS FAY PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY... TROUGH/SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL BE LOCATED IN THE OK/TX REGION ACCORDING TO . THIS SYSTEM IS A MAJOR PLAYER ON WHAT FAY WILL GO. ACCORDING TO THE ...THIS TROUGH GETS CAUGHT UP WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY FILLS AND PUSHES NORTHEAST. THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMNANT DOES MUCH THE SAME. THE 00Z EURO HAS ANOTHER SOLUTION. FAY TURNS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND GETS STUCK FOR A FEW DAYS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH BLOCKS ITS PATH. IN OUR AREA...THE SOLUTION HAS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND FAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHICH MAKES ANOTHER HEAVY WORK SCHEDULE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE AND EURO ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE SHOWS MORE A VIGOUROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS MID LATITUDE SYSTEM.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 428 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
MON-WED...LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK OF FAY IS OVER CUBA MON MORNING THEN APPROACHING DRY TORTUGAS MON EVENING AND NEARING THE FL WEST COAST BY TUE PM. WHILE TOO MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD NOT BE GIVEN TO THE EXACT FORECAST PATH THIS FAR OUT...APPEARS THAT RAIN BAND EFFECTS FROM FAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF EC FL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME TS FORCE WINDS REACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY. BASED ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF FAY...EC FL EXPECTED TO FEEL THE WORST EFFECTS TUE/TUE NIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY WED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE NMRS/LKLY POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF FAY. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR FAY WILL PUT EC FL IN A VULNERABLE LOCATION FOR TC TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINS FROM PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS. AT A MINIMUM...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FROM FAY AND TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES AROUND THE HOME ACCORDINGLY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ALSO URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST TRACK AND EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM FAY SINCE FORECAST REVISIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAY EVOLVES AND APPROACHES FL.
http://weather.noaa.gov
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
I'll get this on the MainPage ASAP...
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Here is Orlando, there does not seem to be much concern with no big runs on water, food, gasoline, or plywood. We are all expecting a big rain maker but not much wind. We shall see. I think I will buy 1 gallon of water per person just to be on the safe side.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I live in Indialantic Beach.
I was curious as to what I should expect?
I know Melbourne is about 170 miles from Sarsota.
Currently the TSFW extend out about a 105 miles, I expect that to grow as Fay grows into a Hurricane.
So what do you think? Rain and 40 MPH winds?
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Things are very calm in Delray Beach, no gas lines, nothing. If the storm stays on track (ha), it won't be bad here.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Model consensus seems to be wavering last couple runs. Tropical suite is now breaking hard left at the end of their run has been further west for last three runs. waiting on UKMET. Slower movement from Fay is starting to ingest stronger ridge data, into the models, from recon NE of the bahamas. This is really going to be a wait and see now -- nothing is certain.
Edited by craigm (Sun Aug 17 2008 09:22 AM)
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