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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Fay's Florida Impact Potential
      #81552 - Sat Aug 16 2008 05:51 AM

In what is continuing to appear as a likely Florida impact by Fay, very much is up in the air as too the scope of potential impact. A potential exists for either a tropical storm or a hurricane to impact practically the entire state. Of course, a sooner northward turn could spare most or even all of Florida if such a turn occured taking Fay east of the state. For the time being though, this seems less likely. If the track remains up through the central or western most Florida Keys, than a tragectory parallelling the state would have compelling impacts.

Aside from the fact that current land interaction will impact course direction, future intensity is even more a mystery. For the immediate, and until a clearly defined center has emerged or reformed away from Hispanola, than am wary of speculating "worse case scenario". Just for the moment though, it is interesting to take note of how a tropical cyclone was able to maintain its overall integrety while over the island of Hispanola. In all my years of Hurricane Chasing, I cannot recall a track, where any weak or strong tropical cyclone had remained so intact!

While waiting for first daylight visible satellite, and for the center to emerge over water later today, I believe the truest test of what may lie ahead will be to see how fast Fay begins to organize and deepen. One thing for sure, Florida's recent drought conditions may soon be remedied. Lake Okachobee ( no way I spelled that right ), remains way below normal and significant rains ( minus the wind ) would be welcomed. Interestingly, for much of the state, Monday marks the first day of school for the new calander year. Might be a "snow day" (or days) for an awful lot of children. Fay might prove to be the "first test" for residents and tourists of the Florida Keys. New bridge modifications in Key Largo are now operational, thus allowing a northward flow of traffic to evacuate ( IF necessary ) out of the Keys, without the delays caused by boaters needing the bridge to open for their own safe departure. Then there is the economic boon. Recession? Slow retail sales? Not any longer - as soon as the first Watches or Warnings are hoisted for parts of Florida, bottled water, candles, propane, canned goods, batteries, bottles of liquor, and a hole host of commodities will start flying off the shelves.. Hmmm, lets see if gas prices coincedentally spike back over the $4.00 gallon price too.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: weathernet]
      #81557 - Sat Aug 16 2008 08:01 AM

Quote:

Interestingly, for much of the state, Monday marks the first day of school for the new calander year. Might be a "snow day" (or days) for an awful lot of children.




Monday, August 18th, is the first day of school here in Saint Lucie County.
I'm leaning towards the School Board postponing our opening day due to the uncertainty of TS Fay.
And.......we have "hurricane" days here in Florida when school is cancelled due to a hurricane.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 377
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: ltpat228]
      #81573 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:43 AM

I teach Middle School Science here in eastern Hillsborough county and am beginning to worry what will happen to our first 3 days. Our county officials have a notoriously hard time making up their minds what to do about tropical weather and it has actually been 3 years now since we have had problems. Complicating matters is that my school is a shelter which means if there are significant coastal evacuations, we will close to house those in need of shelter. At this point in the year, they will be caught in two frames of mind 1) We have a couple days built in, so go ahead and err on the side of caution and close for a day or so: 2) If we close now and it doesn't end up that we needed to, we have blown a day or two in what is beginning to look like an active year, days we may find we need later. Such is the reasoning around here. Keep us posted in News and Forcast!! It could be a VERY wild school opening!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Askeerdid
Unregistered




Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #81639 - Sat Aug 16 2008 04:45 PM

Ok I ran/left for the 04 hurricanes tho I live in far east Hillsborough/PC area. I am afraid of them. I live in a old house with LOTS AND LOTS of trees but none over the house, but plenty over the power lines and driveway. My house seems sturdier than I am at this point! The local weather already seems to be hyping this with the gloom n doom, and the track keeps changing-seemingly more to the right-and Im thinking the right side is always the worst-so hoping it would come in over the glades it would be nothing but a wet n windy nuisence by the time it reached Tmpa Bay area. I think Im even more afraid of the power being out for an extended time than the storm itself. So what does one believe?? How can one look at these ever changing charts where now they have it below tmpa bay as a H and then above Tmpa Bay as a TS. WHAT can be expected in this area??? And WHEN do they get it together on the track instead of promoting it for the sake of WATCH OUR NEWS STATION. I need a voice of calm n logical reason PLEASE?? anyone???

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 377
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: Askeerdid]
      #81646 - Sat Aug 16 2008 04:55 PM

Quote:

Ok I ran/left for the 04 hurricanes tho I live in far east Hillsborough/PC area. I am afraid of them. I live in a old house with LOTS AND LOTS of trees but none over the house, but plenty over the power lines and driveway. My house seems sturdier than I am at this point! The local weather already seems to be hyping this with the gloom n doom, and the track keeps changing-seemingly more to the right-and Im thinking the right side is always the worst-so hoping it would come in over the glades it would be nothing but a wet n windy nuisence by the time it reached Tmpa Bay area. I think Im even more afraid of the power being out for an extended time than the storm itself. So what does one believe?? How can one look at these ever changing charts where now they have it below tmpa bay as a H and then above Tmpa Bay as a TS. WHAT can be expected in this area??? And WHEN do they get it together on the track instead of promoting it for the sake of WATCH OUR NEWS STATION. I need a voice of calm n logical reason PLEASE?? anyone???



Please, PLEASE do not enter panic mode at this point. Even if it heads directly towards us (which is still a pretty slim chance considering all of the alternatives), it is likely to be no more than a Category 1 storm. This should pose NO danger to you inside your house with no trees overhanging or likely to land on the house. You would be likely to lose power (only you know how likely...in my neighborhood we almost NEVER lose power for long...are you prone to losing power there?) At my house, losing power is an adventure, like camping, and we can do just fine for a couple of days without it using our propane grill and an emergency generator. Running from hurricanes can be OK, unless you get caught in a big evacuation, or inadvertantly run INTO the path of the storm. I would rather be in my own house without power than far away in a motel and not knowing. Please don't let the news get you overanxious. You are wise to realize that at this point, they are trying to attract viewers and are ramping up the worst-case scenerios. Hang around this site as well as the locals and it will help you keep perspective. I have never known anyone who was killed in a hurricane yet (lived in FL 44 years and have relatives and friends all over the state). Keep your head and follow good advice and you will be just fine. You may be uncomfortable if the power goes out, but nothing more than can be handled. Hope this helps!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: Askeerdid]
      #81649 - Sat Aug 16 2008 05:12 PM

There are no short answers to your questions. Think about how often your local met has predicted a clear forecast and you ended up in a torrential downpour without your raincoat. Hurricane track and intensity prediction, while discussed and studied by the best mets in the business, is not going to provide you with the certainly that you are seeking.

Each day the forecast will get more and more reliable. What you CAN do now it start planning if you have not done so already. Folks in the keys could be affected as early as Monday afternoon, but the rest of us in Florida have a little more time to "hunker down" or hit the road. Make some plans for BOTH scenarios. If you were to stay, what supplies would you need? Start visiting some of the emergency sites for suggestions. If you were to evacuate, where would you go? Who would you stay with? What would you need to take with you?

We are in the "watch, learn, and prepare" phase, not really yet in the "freak out" phase.

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #81661 - Sat Aug 16 2008 06:05 PM

Quote:

I teach Middle School Science here in eastern Hillsborough county and am beginning to worry what will happen to our first 3 days. Our county officials have a notoriously hard time making up their minds what to do about tropical weather and it has actually been 3 years now since we have had problems. Complicating matters is that my school is a shelter which means if there are significant coastal evacuations, we will close to house those in need of shelter. At this point in the year, they will be caught in two frames of mind 1) We have a couple days built in, so go ahead and err on the side of caution and close for a day or so: 2) If we close now and it doesn't end up that we needed to, we have blown a day or two in what is beginning to look like an active year, days we may find we need later. Such is the reasoning around here. Keep us posted in News and Forcast!! It could be a VERY wild school opening!




I'm with you on that one! I work in Hillsborough County too - except on the WESTERN side. Right near the bay. Really wondering what they will do. But you know the saying - we work for Hillsborough County. LOL


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ASkeeerdid
Unregistered




Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: cjzydeco]
      #81680 - Sat Aug 16 2008 07:58 PM

Thank yall for answering me, Im middle aged, live alone, no friends or family, and do not tolerate heat or travel well, so its twice as scary, just bought this house less than a year ago (80 year old cracker house, like I said its sturdier than me!), I do know that I seem to be a lightening magnet (today the phone lines and satillite got toasted so I cant even see the weather channel) and the weather blinks and dims EVERY STORM but its never lost. Former owners said that they had lost power for 2 weeks during the o4 canes. My former house in the same area only lost power during jean and that was only for about 10 hours and at night. But then I was on the same line as the hospital, now Im on the same line as the cows! (W side PC no of i-4) LOL I do have a gen. and a window unit but Im afraid of the heat/power outages-or how long power would be out....a tree fell on lines early in the summer and I was without power over 12 hours-good thing it was at night and cooler out. Ive watched all the eve news and they just seem to relish in placing that hurricane logo over the Tampa Bay area. I rememeber leaving for Charley and I ended up in the other side of orlando area...then they say it was coming THERE and I travelled all the way to WPB in fear. But that to me was the biggest example of a BIG WHOOPS on the part of the meterologists, and now my trust in them is toasty-but I also look at the NHC website and they are obviously saying the same thing, just without as much color. I keep trying to tell myself the track is not set in stone but I havent seen it move too far from the TMP BAY area yet track wise and thats scaring me. What can one expect during a cat one storm inland (Like I said I left in 04) but here I have so many dogs and livestock leaving isnt really an option. And maybe one of you more exp weather folks can tell me about the spagetti models...they even said Miami as a possibility, the GFDL model which they like, but then each tv station seem to like their own radar models????. Also how far out do the winds go from the center...will we be in a stiff breeze or a hurricane??? And are their storms in that whole big white fan looking mess or just near the center. And are they like our evening storms or is it more of a rain event w/o the lightening?? I really appreciate yall taking thte time to post to answer my questions as Im not a newbie to FL I am a newbie to the idea of riding out a storm, I never have and Im TRYING not to panic....knowledge is power for me. Thanks yall again!

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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: ASkeeerdid]
      #81698 - Sat Aug 16 2008 09:48 PM

A category 1 storm is nothing to be overly concerned about. Most people stay in their homes just like you would during a bad thunderstorm. Personally, I head across the street and take photos of the bay. But don't follow my example.

My point is, there is no reason to panic whatsoever about a cat 1. Chances are you've endured winds that strong already in various thunderstorms over the years.

If you are afraid of losing power and enduring high temperatures, an easy way to cope is to take frequent cold showers, keep a wet towel over your head. A fan is also very helpful if you have a generator. Remember keep the generator OUTSIDE, not inside.

A cat 1 storm likely would not cause enough damage that FPL would be unable to get you back online in a reasonably short time. Also, the old cracker houses tended to be built much stronger than much of the construction from the 50's-90. Even in Cat 4 Charley, most of the old cracker houses withstood it with little damage while some of the newer structures didn't fare as well.

However, if you are ordered to evacuate, you should do so immediately. Even the old houses are no match for storm surge.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: Bev]
      #81700 - Sat Aug 16 2008 09:57 PM

Just a note, to say a Cat 1 is nothing to be concerned about is not a very smart thing. Go outside and try standing in a fifty mile an hour sustained wind, then throw in rain, it is not a very comfortable thing to do. A Cat 1 has winds up into the eighties and nineties, and to tell someone that this is something that they experience in a thunderstorm does not make sense to me. A high end tropical storm or a low end hurricane is something to be respected. Just my opinion from a lot of experience.

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Askeerdid
Unregistered




Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: Bev]
      #81703 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:23 PM

Some of u are making me feel a little better TY! I just looked up Jeanne...boy was that track waaay off from what the NHC had predicted. Does anybody rememeber what the winds from that one were in Hills/Pinellas at its worth...I know it was a 3 when in it hit the other side of the state but what was it when it got to this side, I believe it was still a hurricane, but I remember driving back home at the end of that day (still gloomy and gusty) and short of a few limbs down didnt see all that much damage???? Was it like a cat 1 when it was on this side of the state???

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: weathernet]
      #81705 - Sat Aug 16 2008 10:35 PM

This thread needs to get back on track. Its purpose was to discuss Fay's Florida Impact potential - but it has been drifting far afield.
Thanks,
ED


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 377
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Admin Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81718 - Sun Aug 17 2008 12:01 AM

Quote:

This thread needs to get back on track. Its purpose was to discuss Fay's Florida Impact potential - but it has been drifting far afield.
Thanks,
ED



OK Ed we have been duly reprimanded. We heard a need and tried to meet it. Back on task...
Right now the impact potential is VERY hard to quantify. IF this thing goes up the FL west coast as a cat 1, I think the impact will be pretty minimal, at least in the areas hit by Charley. They have rebuilt/repaired their infrastructure since Charley and should be able to brush off a cat 1 pretty easily except for those still living in Mobile homes (when will they EVER learn?). I don't much care for the idea of even a Cat 1 over Pinellas county or Tampa Bay as then you would shift to flooding concerns when something like 80% of Pinellas county is less than 25 feet above mean sea level. That said, those folks have dealt with this often enough in the past for it not to be HUGE (see Elena, and every strong winter Low that spins up out of the GOM). IF this goes to Cat 2, all bets are off as it makes a large difference in the coastal waters. I wouldn't fear a Cat 1 in my neighborhood either as we are not in an evac zone, have all power lines under ground, have a new roof on a CBS house, have excellent drainage, and lost our most threatening tree in Jeanne. I may put up my boards on the two south facing (kids) rooms just for security, but nothing else. If it makes Cat 2, I would go into full Hurricane defense mode....we shall see.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Bookworm
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 7
Loc: New Port Richey, FL
Re: Admin Note [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #81744 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:00 AM

Driving around Pasco County yesterday afternoon (New Port Richey, etc.) where I live, I was struck by how full many of the retention ponds and drainage ditches already are from the very wet weather we have had lately. Also, both the Cotee and the Pithlachascotee River both appear (to the naked eye) to be sitting higher on their banks than I have seen in the past few years. I am not too concerned with wind, given the current intensity forecast (although, of course, it is still early), but I am wondering if timing might potentially be an issue, with tides, in terms of any flooding possibility, at least in this area.

--------------------
Just another nervous Mommy...


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Cindi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Panama City, FL
Possible Impact [Re: Bookworm]
      #81749 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:35 AM

Just a quick question...how confident is the NHC with their current track? I live in Panama City, FL and am wondering if this storm could shift more towards our area of the state? Living in this area for 20 years, I understand that no storm track is a sure thing until the storm makes landfall...but I just found out about the storm this morning (I have had a busy weekend).

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conschscooter
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: Florida Keys
Re: Possible Impact [Re: Cindi]
      #81750 - Sun Aug 17 2008 09:52 AM

I noticed an extra high, high tide this morning which isn't too surprising as the full moon was just a couple of days ago. And in 24 hours Fay is supposed to hit the Keys. Oh well.
conchscooter.blogspot.com


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parser
Unregistered




Re: Possible Impact [Re: conschscooter]
      #81862 - Sun Aug 17 2008 05:06 PM

Possible arrival time of 8PM Sarasota almost coincides with low tide of -.6 feet.

I live on Whitaker Bayou near the mouth; our greatest problem is getting the water out fast enough. The bayou drains an 8 square mile area. During the near miss of Donna in 1960 the bayou got to within maybe 6" vertically of the first floor doors. IIRC, Sarasota had winds of what we would now call Cat 1, up to about 100 mph.

A bit of history. In 1848 (??) one Michael Whitaker homesteaded near here and farmed. The hurricane of that year cut across the barrier island and cleared out a deep channel, know to this day as New Pass. (Even more history of the bayou, in June 1865 Judah P. Benjamin, the Sec of State of the Confederate States of America escaped to the Bahamas from Whitaker Bayou, probably on the other side.)


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tjs
Unregistered




Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: weathernet]
      #81957 - Mon Aug 18 2008 12:26 AM

CAT 1 storms can be just as deadly as the more intense compact 3-5. The current projected storm track of Fay will put is a little east of another CAT 1 storm that hit florida in 1972. Agnes was a minimal CAT 1 that spawned many tornados in florida and caused lots of coastline flooding and it just skirted the west coast of florida. We did not have the advanced forecasting technology and were trapped on a barrier island off the West Coast of Florida when Agnes went by. It was a very exciting night as the storm passed us to the west.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: tjs]
      #81958 - Mon Aug 18 2008 12:35 AM

As Fay comes off of Cuba she could come off further to the east than thought. Sometimes they bobble or we find the center a bit off from where we think as we don't have the best access to Cuba. And, with all the convection exploding currently to the right of the center it would be prudent not to let your guard down in the Miami Dade, North Monroe County area..

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

She's intensifying now and looks better than she has all day and her dirty side on the east is very healthy.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Conditions in your area [Re: LoisCane]
      #82039 - Mon Aug 18 2008 08:36 AM

Getting darker clouds from the south,lighting getting intense.Winds have also picked up in the last 20mins.Looks pretty scary outside.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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