LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Agree, she looks to be really trying to pull it together.
It's really important people not confuse Fay with a fully formed Hurricane. Until she wraps her convection will be messy, lopsided and affect a larger area than normally a hurricane might. She is harder to predict because of this and the has been very on the money so far which is good.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html
An amazing tool.
Is it possible the frontal boundary in the Gulf will absorb the ULL?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Is that possible I wonder.
Far away bands are moving into the area. Ironically if this was a very organized storm there would be less of Florida impacted.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I noticed the 5PM from the moves the storm substantially west. No discussion yet. Anybody know why?
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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa Bay
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Quote:
I noticed the 5PM from the moves the storm substantially west. No discussion yet. Anybody know why?
It is usually up right at 5PM...
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~jess~
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I think I have to disagree. The center is still exposed on the edge of the convection all of which is on the east side. I dont see a whole lot thats better right now
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Please try to refrain from using the " QUOTE " button. At present there are over 600 users on the site and it clutters up the posts.
Use the PM function for one sentence replies to another user.
The board is locked down and you must be a registered user to post.
Thanks
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redhot47fl
Registered User
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Lee-Delray:
Nothing in particular should be read into the tardy arrival of a forecast discussion, though it sometimes follows a significant change in the accompanying forecast.
The forecast discussion often is the most intricate, difficult and sensitive part of the package to assemble -- with other forecasters and members of the public combing it for insights or clues -- and it can be delayed by late-arriving data.
NHC forecasters aspire to release the entire package at once, but it is not unusual for the discussion to follow behind the rest of the package.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Apprently Fay is overcoming the obstacles that were in her path.
The Funk Top enhancement below shows a tiny green dot of a Hot Tower near the Center.
Latest Discussion holds Fay at 45 kts. But RECON has not sampled the NE Quadrant... due to overflight restrictions in Cuban airspace.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008230_2015ft_s.jpg
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 17 2008 06:01 PM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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What does the Green mean Daniel?
edit: the Green is a very high cloud top on a thunderstorm. Nicknamed " Hot Tower" as they help add energy to a tropical cyclone. Similar to a fuel pump on an engine.~danielw
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 17 2008 05:34 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Where as the convection has cold cloud tops the center is on the western edge. It is also having to deal with a punch of dry air that is getting incorporated...I have attached a graphic pointing to both of these issues to make it easier to see
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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What do you think the chances Orlando will get a lot of rain out of this thing?
Please..this is something that needs to be posted in another forum...there is no good answer to your question right now because it depends on where landfall actually is..thx! Colleen
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
Edited by Colleen A. (Sun Aug 17 2008 05:47 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Looking at recent recon data... looks to me that the center went west in the last 2 hrs... the vortex data should be in the next 10mins. based on my calculations from the last fix... it went about 15 miles to the west.. around 20.88N 80.13W... will see in a little bit.
**note since recon is at 5kft.. it may not be the surface center.. but they did circle around the above area i mentioned**
Vortext Data shows 82 F at the Surface and 1003mb
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 17 2008 05:51 PM)
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Raleigh, NC
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This time of day, with the sun casting its shadow, gives us a great look at the center using the Visible and RGB loops.
Fay is indeed slowing down as the mentioned, and with that occurring the mid/upper convection will be on top of her shortly.
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Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Am I losing my mind (probably), or has Fay stopped dead in its tracks over the last couple of hours? Looking at the AVN loop, it appears that Fay increased in size, but did not move much in any direction.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Now it looks like the LLC is either not moving at all, or it has reformed back under the heavier convection. This is a weak TS and reformations can happen with this type of storm as it tries to organize
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Raleigh, NC
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You are not losing your mind... the only way for her to turn north is to seemingly "stop" for a bit. Convection is now beginning to fire almost on top of the center as the rest of the storm which has been behind her has caught up too. Link
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Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Am I losing my mind (probably), or has Fay stopped dead in its tracks over the last couple of hours? Looking at the AVN loop, it appears that Fay increased in size, but did not move much in any direction.
You aren't the only one, the Hurricane Center has done a good job so far with this maddening system, Masters over at underground nicknamed it the Joker, and it is pretty fitting. I think the Hurricane Center has a good grip on it, but as mentioned by the official discussion, that angle of approach is similar to , and it just leaves a wide open area where the storm could impact.
Here's a plot with both and Fay on it (click)
Fay is a lot weaker than was at this point, though, so I don't think a repeat is in the cards.
** NOTE this has to do with difficulty forecasting an exact landfall point, other than that it has no similarity to . **
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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The COC is becoming much better organized as shown on Cuban radar, but it is fighting SW vertical shear, as the outflow in the SW quadrant is going between good and ragged looking. Shouldn't be too much longer we should be able to pick the COC up on Key West long range radar.
Hurricane 2004 (NE eyewall)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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According to you guys here that know what weather and hurricanes are, is Florida getting Feeder bands from Fay?
I am getting thunderstorms here, and think they are feeder bands of Fay is this correct?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
You aren't the only one, the Hurricane Center has done a good job so far with this maddening system, Masters over at underground nicknamed it the Joker, and it is pretty fitting. I think the Hurricane Center has a good grip on it, but that angle of approach is similar to , and it just leaves a wide open area where the storm could impact.
The concern I have, Mike, is that with a stalled storm, traditionally, ALL bets were off. If I remember correctly, stalled for a time off the coast, ramped up, and then shifted to a completely new and unexpected track, taking out Punta Gorda. Years ago, Hurricane Elana stalled and did an about face, then did a loop-de-loop. A tropical system that isn't moving is about the most unpredictable thing in the world, I've found from experience.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
Admin
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Yes, I see what you mean with the stall, that just makes it all the more maddening right now, as far as trying to figure out where it will go and how strong, when it starts to move I'll keep track.
I have to sign off probably until 11AM tomorrow so this is the last detailed look i'll get at the storm until then.
The rest of the mets and other people here should be able to pick up the slack, and with watches up, the local media and officials are a better source of info than what you hear on the Internet anyway.
The clouds over southern Florida were part of the usual synaptic flow, but they are getting influenced and enhanced by fay it seems, I'd let a real Met describe that a bit better.
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