StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quick Question,
In the Water Vapor Loop, whats with all the purples and oranges? Is that where the storm is most active? If so, it looks like Fay is pulling herself together and we may have a Cat 1 soon. Not too sure, but it looks active in that center, and looks as though there is 2 ULL forming in her? I think that's what those two circular things are in the center. Not sure, because I'm not a met.
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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TeamJP2002
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Loc: Daytona Beach, Fla.
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Very, very, very different storms, but to answer your question about the ability to intensify between Cuba and SW Florida -- exited Cuba at 110 and hit Punta Gorda at 150.
Yes, storms can intensify very rapidly in a short amount of time, especially in the warm, shallow waters of the GOM.
Not saying that can or will happen with Fay.
All hurricanes are unpredictable, this one seems above average due to it's current inability to get organized.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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That all depends on where Fay crosses Cuba..the further east, the better chance of her interacting with more land,therefore disrupting her; the further west..the narrower part of Cuba..the better chance that she will not take as much of a beating. As of right now, the track takes it over the narrower part of Cuba. ..but just as we think we've got it nailed, she starts a turn towards the NW.
Eyes Wide Open is my best advice!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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I think the crossing of Cuba has begun. There has been no confirmation of this and I suppose it could be the area to the east of the center but either way the weather connected with the storm is moving on land.
And, she could pick up speed, even at 10mph forward speed she is crossing a narrow area of Cuba.
The Frontal boundary across North Florida and South GA is moving West to East or WSW to ENE.
Where does this leave our not so terribly organized storm that is currently showing a better presentation on sat imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Hi all. Sorry for being a stranger. I have been in the Midwest for the floods for quite some time...and I am still here. Fortunately, I got the house mostly hurricane ready prior to leaving and my firends helped me do the rest this weekend just in case Fay is making a direct impact in Port Charlotte.
I've been looking at the satellite and Cuban Radar out of Pico San Juan tonight. On satellite, it looks like some re-formation may be occuring. However, I am going with what I see on radar. I agree with the that the circulation is elongated. Also, based on the radar, it does not look like there is a center reformation. By all appearances, the center is still to the SW of the main convection and thunderstorms. As for the rotation of the tunderstorms, it is at the mid levels. This system appears to be somewhat de-coupled (i.e. the surface and the mid levels are definately not stacked). This should limit intensification somewhat tonight. I believe Fay will remain a tropical storm until landfall in Cuba. If the shear is less in the eastern Gulf the opportunity will be there for a Cat 1 hurricane.
I hope all in the Penninsula are p[reparing for the possibility of a hurricane. Take care! :-)
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danielw
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I have been watching what appeared to be a northward move also.
I'm perplexed ar best to say that Fay has 'some' northward movement underway. But the outer fringes over the Yucatan Channel are still creeping westward.
So I shall call it a WNW or NW movement. Something between 270 and 300 degees on a compass.
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Key West long range radar is showing that Fay is now indeed making it across cuba headed almost due north. This may end up as an EAST coast storm not the west. The center (via Key West radar) is becoming clearly visible crossing Cuba. It looks like the center reformed in the middle of that ball of convection
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Mon Aug 18 2008 04:38 AM)
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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Yeah she just sort of lifts more than moves.
Perhaps the "center" is still over water but the weather is coming our way..
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
looks to be spinning on a few sats
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
IF that is the center.. moved or relocated or new or we couldn't get a good grasp on it what would it do to the next run of models??
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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WeatherNut
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KW radar is definitely showing a 'center' of rotation. It is the rain bands going west to east at the bottom of the image and you can see the rotation of the radar images. They might wake up in the morning in MIA and see they have Fay at their doorstep...literally
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Loc: Israel
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Cuban radar does not show that. I think it's a real reach to be using Key West radar to determine whether or not it has made landfall in Cuba. In fact, it indicates that the center is moving northwestish.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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WeatherNut
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Cuban radar is showing it making landfall as well...
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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I posted my offical forecast in the forecast lounge if anyone wants to see. Fay looks to be going about 330dg or NW-NNW. I'm not thinking this will get west of 82.5W but its too early to tell when the actually turn NNE or NE happens. Monday afternoon or Monday night.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Loc: Israel
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I don't think thats the COC you are looking at. I believe the COC is near 21 N 81 W on that radar. I wish the radar had better resolution but thats where, at least to me, it appears to be right now. I believe what is going on shore now is the bulk of the MLC further showing the effects the shear is having on Fay as the MLC is fairly detached from the LLC.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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FSU NUT
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Loc: Tampa, Florida
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...hello and greetings from Tampa!
Just found the board tonight and wanted to mention how much i've enjoyed the various insights/predictions found here.
Folks here in Tampa are watching every move this chica makes...especially since the 11pm forecast sends her right up U.S. 19.
Though everything is an educated guess at this point, I can't help but notice the size of this storm. Not very organized, not very strong (yet), but big. I gotta think no matter what, Tampa gets at minimum Tropical Storm force winds on Tuesday.
I have to work tomorrow, yet i'm staying up for the official 2 am update...I should seek help. :-)
Again, thanks for the insight...
-Bill
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'Tough Times don't last, but Tough People do.'
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dolfinatic
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Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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Canetracker you are absolutly correct. The actual center is to the southwest of the big ball of convection. I agree that ball has got to be the mid level center. It still seems to be on track or very close to the track. Radars that far out can be deceiving. Have to wait until it gets closer to the key west radar to definitivly find the coc.
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WeatherNut
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I see almost no support (visually) of a center at that location in the last frames of the Cuban radar. It was somewhat evident in the first couple of frames. I think the center has reformed where the rotation is. Would a MLC give that kind of radar presentation? I just dont see anything at 21N 81W coordinates other than rainbands going SE
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Mon Aug 18 2008 05:05 AM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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It is possible that the MLC would give that radar presentation since that is where the bulk of the convection is. There is still rotation in the atmosphere and at the distance that Key West is at to southern Cuba, the dopplar picks up the upper level of the atmosphere which is why it is extremely suspect to use radar from large distances as a determination of actual movement. All it's telling you is that there are a lot of huge thunder clouds moving on shore in Cuba.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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dem05
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I agree with your synopsis. The link provided a few posts above of the Cuban Radar is the same one I was watching. The Surface Circulation of Fay remains to the SW of the primary convection and over the Carribean. Interaction with the Upper Level Low has led to a decouple at the mid levels for the time being. The Key West radar images will pick up the mid level circulation through line of site (thanks to the curvature of the earth). What the key west radar is missing is the surface feature that is Fay herself. With the mid level ciculation moving over Cuba and the surface looking relatively stationary, I would not expect a reformation under that area...especially considering that the mid level center seems to be decoupling more and more and heading toward some pretty tall mountains. The thunderstorms approaching the radar, and affiliated with the mid level circulation are faily strong. Once they pass the radar site, the resolution of the surface circulation over the Caribbean will improve somewhat. Rain fade is impeding that view slightly right now. It will be interesting to see what happens during this decouple. Sometimes, the surface organization of a system is "re-accomplished" and the system gets it's act back together. Other times, it's a death sentance and a system never recovers. Time will tell, but a decouple plus land interaction may mean a 50-50 shot that Fay will reorganize or remain very weak. Fay may have gotten too close to the upper level low to become a significant feature in the Carribean, but will likely remain a storm to watch in the Florida Straits and SE GOMex.
Edited by dem05 (Mon Aug 18 2008 05:13 AM)
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danielw
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This particular radar site seems to gve a better view of the MLC cluster rotating around the broad LLC.
http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/02I.Juventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif
At least that what appears to be happening. IF... Fay crosses Cuba at her present location... and that's a huge IF.
There will be a large number of surprised faces on the Florida East Coast and in the Bahamas
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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It will be very interesting what the says. If Fay was stacked and went into Cuba over the past hour then it was probably a 60-70mph storm with a pressure of 992-998mb cause recon cant get that close to Cuba. If the center is slightly west or Sw then the weakening ( or holding its own around 40-50mph ) will hold till morning when it exits. The Next update is critical on knowing where the center is. If it is the 1st one mentioned..then its moving more NNW and was a stronger system making the Keys a direct Impact my mid day monday.
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