weathernet
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IF that is the center.. moved or relocated or new or we couldn't get a good grasp on it what would it do to the next run of models??
What would happen to the new models?? Well, if you and others are right about a poleward motion commencing at this time, than it looks like we have a NEW GAME! Follow the bouncing short wave.....
I am reluctant to be out-guessed ( again ) by this quirky storm that some others on another Forum site refer to as " The Joker". Have to admit, but thought it funny. Latest satellite and Cuban radar suggest to me too, that a northward turn may have started. Whether we are really dealing with a significantly decoupled system, only visible satellite will confirm. The fact that earlier this evening suggested that little or no motion occurred for part of this evening, suggests to me that Fay may be deepening and getting more organized. Intensity and organization aside, even if we have witnessed a northward motion, it remains uncertain that this may only be some jog, and that a more N.W. motion could again ensue. For the time being however, and until Fidel and his "off limits" air space prove otherwise, I must concur that Fay indeed "appears" to be moving somewhere between 340/350 degrees. As a side note, it has been the "trusty" European model, which has most consistantly indicated a motion eventually taking Fay off Florida's E. coast. Curiously, the European model has been an Eastward "outlyer" of models with regards to Fay's motion.
Latest 0Z data indicates that while the short wave presently in the Eastern U.S, that after 42 hours, most of the troughs energy will be pulling up and away. At this time, the indicates that the 500mb W. Atlantic ridge will be building in from the east. Appears to want to temporarily trap Fay off of the N. Florida coastline. Am curiously waiting for the 2:00a.m. intermediate advisory to see if any wording or coordinates seem indicative of the more northward percieved motion. "If" such motion is confirmed, than we have all new initialized positions ( along with a different forward motion ) for the various models to ingest. I would be personally surprised however if we were to see a significant shift for the 5:00am discussion and position. Knowing the staff at N.H.C., I would imagine them far more comfortable to see visable satellite, prior to commiting to a course change based on IR, little surface data, and a storm perhaps less than well defined. Then, and only then might we see significant model ( and official ) course changes, perhaps for the 11:00a.m package tomm. 
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danielw
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RECON is enroute and apparently has been gathering a good bit of data to the west of Fay. They added quite a few extra miles to their trip and a few extra bucks worth of fuel.
Center fix is tasked for the next hour or so. The 2 AM update should have some more information. (to add to the rest of the confusion of Tropical Storm Fay !! )
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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I hope recon will be at the perceived LLC within the hour to help clear up this mishmosh of organized disorganization that Fay is.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 18 2008 05:37 AM)
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danielw
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Recon has transmitted a 995mb pressure at flight level.
I'm not sure if that will be a good reading once they get closer. Seems a bit low for Fay at this point in the development.
Lower pressure now being transmitted...0526Z
980.2 mb(~ 28.95 inHg
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 18 2008 05:40 AM)
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weathernet
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Will be happy to have some real data for the upcoming fix. However, will we have a true fix? Meaning if the center is elongated, than a center fix which recon may access ( given air space issues ), could help, but perhaps only partially define what we are all looking at on IR this evening. If unable to fly over Cuban coastline, than how to truly determine what might be occuring in that sector? :?:
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Storm Hunter
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see attached flight image
I looking at the super res. level II data from Key West... its shooting at about 25-33kft where that spin/mid level center is at... 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 18 2008 05:42 AM)
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WeatherNut
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That pressure seems kinda suspect as they were over the western part of Cuba (how/why they are there I dont know...thought it wasn't allowed). I will be glad to know where this thing is...and I hope that it is severely decoupled
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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weathernet
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995mb!!! Well, keep us abreast if this verifies, and of course the fix position of that pressure. Perhaps not really a 6mb drop since earlier this evening, as has had no choice but to "extrapolate" surface pressure and wind speed.
If this proves out, than my earlier ascertion that visable satellite would likely be needed prior to suggesting any possible course change, would be out the window. Like you said, MAY have a lot of surprised S. Florida faces in the a.m. ( and potentially a whole new slate of watches/warnings ).
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danielw
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Although I feel sure that Cuba knows where RECON is and they have limited internet access.
Please do not post RECON locations near CUBA. Flight Safety Precautions are in effect~danielw
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Storm Hunter
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I think your getting the data from when they flew over the mountains... i looking at it now... the pressure readings were taken as they crossed that part of the landmass... since its high up.. pressure is lower on the mountain side... they are back over water now... descending in alt... they crossed from 11kft on one side to 5,100ft on the other side... I read somewhere we were given permission by the gov't to fly only over the area they are flying... and can fly to a certain distance to the shoreline.
Recon is less than 100miles at 1am CDT.. at 5kft above water.. Inbound
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 05:58 AM)
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Robert
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huh? Its proally in operational standings. Dont qouat me on it but when they are in operations and transmiting data and surface observations i dont think they are allowed but they are probally alowed to fly over when crusising i have flown over cuba several times in comercial jets from miami never ad a problem.
well storm hunter cleared that up
Edited by Robert (Mon Aug 18 2008 05:54 AM)
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charlottefl
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I believe this storm is healthy, well stacked vertically and modestly strengthening. The center appears to be, based on Cuban radar, just south of the island at the moment. It's hard to give a motion estimate because radar frames only run for a short period of time, so short term wobbles may appear to be taking the storm due N, but I believe the motion is more NWerly. As of right now the storm longitude wise is almost 40 miles west of Ft. Lauderdale, just something to keep in mind. Should be more clear where she's going after she gets across Cuba.
Hurricane 2004 (Port Charlotte- NE Eye wall)
I correct myself the COC is now over land and has picked up speed to the NW at least temporarily..
Edited by charlottefl (Mon Aug 18 2008 06:01 AM)
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Brad in Miami
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This particular radar site seems to gve a better view of the MLC cluster rotating around the broad LLC.
http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/02I.Juventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif
At least that what appears to be happening. IF... Fay crosses Cuba at her present location... and that's a huge IF.
There will be a large number of surprised faces on the Florida East Coast and in the Bahamas
CORRECTION TO PARAGRAPHS BELOW: link now (203 am) shows continual images, which make it easier to see, and still suggests, in my opinion, all the convection could just be above an MLC rotating around a broad LLC to the west/southwest - as Daniel suggested. So yeah, there may have been a more northward component or re-formation, but this radar still makes it appear that all that convection is not above the LLC.
HERE'S WHAT I WROTE BEFORE CORRECTING, IF IT'S HELPFUL AT ALL:
Take a look at the Cuban radar site Daniel posted above. Unfortunately, there's about an hour and fifteen minute to 1:30 gap between radar images which makes it even more difficult to guess what's going on, but the latest images do show a bit more support for the idea/educated guess that some are throwing around that there could be - nothing certain, not from this radar image - either a more northward motion or center re-formation. Whereas the earlier images suggested - as Daniel stated - the broad LLC decoupled from the MLC (with the bulk of convection) others focused on, the later images are more inconclusive.
This is, however, a VERY limited tool, and I do NOT think it definitively shows a re-formation or more northward motion; it merely supports the idea that I don't think we can discount that theory.
As others have written, recon may give a better picture, but we may even have to wait till the sees some visible satellite images to get a definitive answer.
Edited by Brad in Miami (Mon Aug 18 2008 06:07 AM)
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Robert
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wow the is late they must be thinking about this as i type.
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vmzamorano
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180526
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
The recon plane is not too far from the storm, and probably waiting for more information
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Storm Hunter
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just read this off of the Cuba weather site... its translated to english through google
Read it in English
Click more under tropical cyclone warning.. its in blue in first box
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
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I believe there are many people reading this site and a few people may be asking questions that others know the answers to. Or feel they know the answers.
Somewhere in ' Your Settings" I believe there is an "ignore user" setting. If you are annoyed by a certain user then by all means please ignore their posts one way or the other. Scroll over it or use the Ignore button.
Questions asked here have a wide range. From Weather to Life Safety. If you have a question please ask. You may get 5 different answers or PM's but someone will answer your question.
Do Not PM someone that is asking questions and tell them off or worse. It can and probably will result in a probation of a minimum of 12 hours.
Just remember. If you choose to use the ignore function. Should that person post emergent information that you might need. You won't be able to see it. Thanks
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vineyardsaker
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look at the radar from cienfuegos:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif
Seems that Fay has made a turn for north
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Storm Hunter
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looks like recon is going through a area of intrest as we write.. although the winds are from the SW at flight level... there about 20-30 miles off shore, and pressure is about 1003mb (dropping).. 21.50N 80.60W.. last point i have.. there heading Direction of Travel: SE (137°)
Location: 46 miles (74 km) to the SSW (193°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 06:24 AM)
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dolfinatic
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2am is out. still moving due northwest at 13. Think we all have been misled by those radars, still have to wait until it emerges on the other side of cuba to see where she is going. has done a great job even with such restrictions to recon this storm
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