metwannabe
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Loc: NC
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I agree the center or atleast what appeared to me to be moving east has become very difficult to locate. Could very well have been one of the vorticies rotating around.
Still do not see any movement to the west, IR Sat is only showing convection building west, not actually moving that direction. I too think if anything it has slowed quiet a bit, due to some intensification or possible center reforming? Not sure.
One thing for certain, it will be interesting to see what happens and has to be unnerving for all of you in central/southern Fl.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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cate
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Florida
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Weather Channel said a short time ago that she was "trapped" and would probably hit FL around Everglades City.
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smorse22
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Loc: North Port, Fl
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What does that mean?
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rayboat
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Loc: Jupiter Fl.
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Unnerving would be a catagory 2-5 deadheading your way! But always be aware and stay safe!
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zacker20
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Spoke too soon on the westward movement. Turns out I was completely wrong. The CENTER has tracked more to the northeast and it looks like it will make landfall in a few hours just south of Naples. This is good news for Central Florida - we will barely be feeling any affects from this storm at all if this track verifies. South Florida will bare the brunt of the system.
There will be a dramatic change in the upcoming advisories from the . Stay tuned.
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cate
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Loc: Florida
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Quote:
What does that mean?
I have no idea. Just said it didn't look like it would go westerly enough to go around SoFL north to Naples. I went thru the eyes of , Jeanne, and , and this better not be another !
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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Ed Rappaport has been on Miami TV all evening. Says there are mixed signals. Radar looks like it wrapped a bit and has more on all sides but he also says it looks like it's falling apart. And, there are multiple vortexes (has always had those) not sure what the big difference is now vs the way it has always been.
Also seems several models have confirmed the loop out and in.
Figures that it will continue to be hard to forecast.
Hasn't been much of a wind event except for squalls. Still looks to me like it's barely moving or maybe it will relocate.
Rain is very cold, feels more like a cold front that a tropical storm in ways Does that mean anything? I don't know but surprised me.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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zacker20
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Guys look at the Key West radar. Fay is about to make landfall south of the Everglades!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=byx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well see the 5pm discussion caught was i was thinking/writing early in post #82074  ... i just didn't really go into detail that a mesoscale feature was spinning around toward key west. Plus with the help of two recons at the time and level II super res. data from Key West... i could tell the "coc" was still off shore at 3pm EDT... and the meso was clearly visible in the new super resolution data.
The big thing that caught my eye this afternoon, is the contracting of winds to the center...and the large blow-up of convection to the northwest of the center... what i think was happening... like last night.. a mid level low fired up and got going... this time is appeared it was begining to "pull around" toward the surface center, which i think is the reason we saw Fay kinda slow down... wobble if you will... as the mid level center was trying to catch up with the surface center... with the help of RSO Vis oF Fay... i think it kinda shows what i'm talking about... notice how the storms expand out in all directions... very good outflow aloft... a little bit of shear to the west, but this is going to be a compact storm for right now and as it crosses over Florida. THE BIG QUESTION down the road is what happens after 60hrs... Tonight's 00Z runs will be interesting
Attached is a image from Key West.. To me the surface center is Directly north of the Radar.. about 10-20 miles
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 11:51 PM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Were getting the same here in regards to the rain. It feels very cold, as does the wind and overall temperature.
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 18 2008 11:57 PM)
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West FL Jess
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are there any mets on here that have an opinion or thought on the direction of Fay or landfall location?
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~jess~
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Beach
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
I don't know...
Last few frames looks like a possible eyes feature.
Here is the closest bouy I could fine:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PLSF1&unit=E
29.68 inchs is that low enough pressure?
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cieldumort
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Chances are that the "cold" many may be feeling with Fay is coming from a few causes -
First, there is some significant dry air entrainment in the western and northwestern quadrants of the cyclone. This can result in some evaporational cooling, similar in a way to that which can also be perceived during a typical afternoon summertime thunderstorm.
Wind will always cool the skin.. and rain and wind even moreso.
Overcast skies for extended durations often make for much more of a different climate, even in a tropical cyclone, especially if it has been sunny lately.
The sense that Fay is a "cold" storm for a Tropical Cyclone is probably all related to these three main factors, and besides, in the end, "perception is reality."
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West FL Jess
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it will be at least 6 hours from now....at least according to Lyons on ....
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~jess~
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zacker20
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Six hours till when? Landfall? I am afraid he is mistaken - the storm is definitely trending more toward the northeast.
edit: I doubt Dr Lyons is mistaken. But he is Also using te same data we and are using. Hmmm, that makes us all confused.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 19 2008 12:00 AM)
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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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First, take a look at the 19:50 radar image of the center. It looks like it is really tightening up and I do not see a huge eaterley component. If anything, Fay is fairly stationary and maybe jogging a bit west now.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Second, I have been through a couple of TS's, , , and whatever the two other ones that hit central Florida were called. I made the smae comment about the temperature and rain for those storms. We all hear that they are fueld by heat and I think we all think they are warm storms. That's not the case. It's a lot cooler in a TS or Hurricane than the usual hotter than heck Florida usual day.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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West FL Jess
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Loc: Tampa Bay
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yes I'm sorry landfall`
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~jess~
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zacker20
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8 PM advisory is out from the ... The movement is now north. Should move northeast once it makes landfall. Tampa area looks to be out of the woods, most intense activity will be on the eastern side - there is barely anything on the western side.
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JMII
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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They were multiple centers, it could be clearly seen on radar about an hour ago: one center moved over Key West then flew off rather quickly to the ENE, while a second center currently appears to be forming to the NW. The previous center has created the famous comma shape that now runs thru Marathon in the middle Keys.
The "trap" they are talking about is visible on the water vapor loop, you can see the outflow is being blocked to the NW, as there is a strong line of dry air pushing against the system. This should limit Fay's western motion and keep her going north, so landfall around Naples sounds about right . I also think some of this dry air got sucked in as the huge blowup to west is not holding together or getting full wrapped up just yet... but its sure trying. Just starting to lose the eastern edge on the visible as the sun sets.
The wind in Cudjoe has switched to SSW and pressure is slowly being to inch up so Fay is moving away from the lower Keys and into Florida Bay. Its going to be a real close call regarding strength, a central core seems to be forming near the center of rotation so Cat 1 is looks more likely with every passing minute. Winds speeds at the surface are not very impressive and there are no weather stations till she reaches the SW coast so its a tough call.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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29.68 no Thats not really low enough that is only 1005 millibars. Usually ill start looking for eye feature aroound 990 (29.23 inches) millibars or below. Pressure of the storm right now is 998 irene a strom i liken too for similarity right now in affects was 986 during crossing of southern penisula. Funny i read up on irene best track and it was a weak cat 1 with 80 mph winds at landfall with 986 pressure. the storm instead of weakening over florida actully came out stronger at 985 leaving jupiter to continue its intensification to 958 and 95knt winds as it bruhed the outerbanks.
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