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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: MikeC]
      #82251 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:03 AM Attachment (440 downloads)

What are the chances of Fay forming an eye over land? The reason I ask is because I was always told tropical storms and hurricanes can not strengthen or form over land. I'll attach an image of the latest radar with what I think to be looking like an eye forming. Is this at all possible to be forming into a hurricane while over land? If this is not an eye forming, then what is it?

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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: kromdog]
      #82252 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:05 AM

Well, as of the 11am forecast, they still have it moving NNE, so it may just be a temporary move to the north. Although any jog to the north for any amount of time could mean a chance of more weather for the more northern counties...like mine..Polk.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: NC
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #82253 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:09 AM

Quote:

Okay another question then,

If she goes to the Atlantic, then can she have a chance at regaining strength?




From the 11AM NHC discussion:
Quote:

IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.





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--
Chris Bryant
Arden, North Carolina


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Troy C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 15
Loc: Satellite beach, FL
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #82254 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:10 AM

In regards to Strmtrckrmiami's question regarding and Eye over land, the latest discussion mentions an eye like ring of convection visible on radar.

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Brett Addison
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: Colleen A.]
      #82256 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:13 AM

Well folks, an eye is now forming over the storm even though the storm is over Florida. See visible picture below:



Fay


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: Colleen A.]
      #82257 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:13 AM

5-6 inches so far in Stuart this morning. In and out of Tornado warnings too. My cheap wind gauge broke around 30mph gust. Am wondering if Fay can gain strenghth drawing heat from NE and SE quadrants as she approaches the coast. Wilma did this but I realize this storm is no Wilma. Weather channel just said she has dropped 2 mb since land fall - explains the good organization seen on radar. How often does a tropical storm have an eye or should we just call it a well defined COC.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: Brett Addison]
      #82258 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:14 AM



So this is an eye? How is this possible? I thought storms couldn't form over land?

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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England

Edited by StrmTrckrMiami (Tue Aug 19 2008 11:16 AM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #82262 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:18 AM

Quote:

What are the chances of Fay forming an eye over land? The reason I ask is because I was always told tropical storms and hurricanes can not strengthen or form over land. I'll attach an image of the latest radar with what I think to be looking like an eye forming. Is this at all possible to be forming into a hurricane while over land? If this is not an eye forming, then what is it?




Storms just don't collapse when they hit land. Fay was in a strengthening phase when it made landfall...if it had had about 4 more hours it likely would have become a hurricane. Because Fay got her act together and developed a good inner core, you are seeing the results of that now...Fay is holding her own quite well over land. What you are seeing is, indeed, an eye...it doesn't mean the storm is strengthening, however, it just mean the processes that began offshore are continuing.

A couple of other points...South Florida is very flat and very wet...the landmass doesn't make that big of a difference there, so storms are slow to weaken over S Fl. I have seen storms which didn't weaken at all over that area, and a couple which looked better after crossing S FL, although that is Very, Very rare.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: WeatherNut]
      #82263 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:23 AM

Fay has slowed down to a slow Jog over the past 1-2hrs. I do feel a NE movement will begin again. The Pressure still fell due to it tighting up its center overland, but along with that it had water inflow from the GOM and Atlantic and the glades aren't exactly land. Katrina did the same thing over the glades.
So it made the center tighten up, but as FAY moves NE the actual landmass will catch up and weaken her some. Matters where and how fast she gets off the east coast (if at all) to know how much weakening will take place.

* I really need to reread what I type before I post I know.. too many misplaced wordings *

Edited by scottsvb (Tue Aug 19 2008 11:27 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: scottsvb]
      #82265 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:29 AM

The 11 discussion mentioned 24-48 hrs over the Atlantic. Could be an eternity in terms of strengthening. Key will be how long over land before it gets there.

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: WeatherNut]
      #82266 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:31 AM

Is there anything to be made of the next NHC advisories at 1:00 PM and 3:00 PM instead of the typical 2:00 PM advisory?

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: kromdog]
      #82268 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:41 AM

Quote:

Is there anything to be made of the next NHC advisories at 1:00 PM and 3:00 PM instead of the typical 2:00 PM advisory?




That is standard when there is a Storm near or on shore in the US.

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Jason Kelley


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #82270 - Tue Aug 19 2008 11:50 AM

Quote:

Fay will stall around Orlando.

Then turn to the West.

alot of water will be dropped East and north as it does this.

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6latest.png




Do you have any more data other than 1 model to back up that statement? Or could you explain your statement with a little more detail? That would be a rather drastic turn for this girl to make given the overall scenario.

--------------------
Matt


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Typhoon Dave
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Loc: Md
Re: Fay Makes Landfall at Cape Romano as a Tropical Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #82271 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:14 PM

One of the reasons Fay is maintaining or even gaining strength is the topography of south Florida. This region is dominated by the Everglades and Lake Okechobee which provides adequate fuel to sustain a troipical system. A good example was Andrew (1992) which entered southeast Florida as a Cat 4/5 and exited southwest Florida as a Cat 2.

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: chase 22]
      #82272 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:17 PM

Hello.

I came here from the Oil Drum. This site seemed to have the best/latest info.



always looking at how storms will affect the LA/GOM.

Look over to the left at THC's latest track.

Then here:

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6/

The history of the clark forecast models for Fay.

Start here:

17-Aug-2008 22:29

and move up to today.

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6/plot19082008-1029.png

Fay turns at Orlando.

Good to be here. Look forward to staying.

James


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Fay Makes Landfall at Cape Romano as a Tropical Storm [Re: Typhoon Dave]
      #82273 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:17 PM

I don't think either the everglades or Lake O help a system; neither are very deep so there is not much moisture to pull from. A storm like Andrew going from a 4/5 to a 2 which went over part of the evergalades, but nowhere near Lake O. The weakening would prove the opposite of your point.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: chase 22]
      #82274 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:21 PM

Fay is certainly being persistent and seems to prefer land. When have we ever seen a T. Cyclone form over land and have pressure fall while doing so? Should we be surprised by the trend today?
The motion remains sloooow (60 miles since land fall or 8-9 mph) and generally east of north. I watched a good long radar loop and convinced myself that yes it is still drifitng slightly NNE. In fact the eastern portion of the center may actually spend over an hour over the lake, now that should be interesting and won't diminish intensity.
I am curious though with just how far this system will go before it get blocked. I sense the eastern portion of the forecast track is more in order here, and as long as Fay can draw on both atlantic and gulf inflow, why should it completely wind down?
When Fay made land fall 150 miles to my south my baramoter was 1007 (29.74). Now it is 1008 (29.77).
We have frisky 20+ NE breezes and higher gusts..No Rain.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: doug]
      #82275 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:55 PM

Moore Haven, a town on the western edge of Lake O, just reported a windgust of 78MPH.
From Special Weather statements:

AT 1230 PM EDT, A SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A WIND GUST TO 67
MPH WAS REPORTED AT AIRGLADES AIRPORT WEST OF CLEWISTON. AN
UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF AN 84 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECEIVED AT 1220 PM AT
MOORE HAVEN.


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: doug]
      #82276 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:57 PM

Weather station in Moore Heaven, directly under the "eye" of Fay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLMOORE5

Current conditions:
Wind 56 mph out of the SSE, gusting to 76 (is that accurate?!?)
Pressure: 998 and falling.

That's pretty ugly weather for being so far from the coast.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: JMII]
      #82277 - Tue Aug 19 2008 01:02 PM

Well this storm is truly deserving of its nickname, the Joker. This is a storm that will be studied for years in my opinion just on the basis of its land interactions.


The new advisory has the pressure at 986 and the winds up to 65.


Very, very impressive storm.

-If you're going to quote Jeff Masters verbatim, might want to include a citation. -HF

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 19 2008 07:12 PM)


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