Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: JMII]
      #82278 - Tue Aug 19 2008 01:04 PM

This storm has to be confounding the experts. the fact that Florida is flat, the hurricane is pulling from the everglades and the large lake, and from both the Atlantic warm SST's, and the GOM warm SST's...is why it is so strong. Granted, a storm will not be sustainable at cat 5 like Andrew...but certainly there is enough energy to probably sustain and "develop" to some sort of potential, given the feedstock of water and topography she is under....

I remember hurricane Danny...which stayed in the middle of Mobile day for 2 days...sat there.....never got bigger...but never smaller either...

the big question is IF the hurricane gets back over the open Atlantic...or cuts back west into the GOM

in the meantime.....Florida will not have to make any more OJ....it's being made as we speak...lol


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #82279 - Tue Aug 19 2008 01:06 PM

This storm is at 986mb and dropping, and went up 5 mph winds wise. How is that possible that "Joker" is strengthening over land? Will this be a hurricane soon if it continues to strengthen? How is it possible that she is strengthening over land?

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #82284 - Tue Aug 19 2008 01:39 PM Attachment (577 downloads)

Do you know which storm this reminds me of?

1994 tropical storm Gordon.

Tremendous rainmaker. I remember it made life miserable and soggy for many days. Went out to sea and came back in.

Attached a picture of the track.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: mikethewreck]
      #82289 - Tue Aug 19 2008 01:55 PM

Dr. Steve Lyons made an interesting statement last night on a hurricane special on TWC. He stated (not exact quote) that although warm SST temps are necessary for TC development atmospheric conditions are more vital. Noting there had been instances where storms had been over very warm waters but torn apart by shear, dry air, etc... or the flip side, storms that intensified over colder waters because the atmosphere was ripe for strenthening.

I mention this because I think Fay proves that point. Many have mentioned that the terrain of S. Fl will not disrupt a TC as most land masses will but the atmospheric enviroment that Fay finds itself in now is ripe for strengthening. Put that with minimum land friction, close proximity to two large bodie of water (GOM/Atlantic) and Fay finds herself in a rare situation.

She continues of this path for what, about 8 more hours and it could get real interesting.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: metwannabe]
      #82291 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:02 PM

Thought i share this Rapid Scan Vis of Fay. At the current path, i think she'll pass close to KMLB and or the Cape to exit Florida. Really not susprised that she tightened up her core and has an eye now. Friction and atmosphere conditions were almost perfect, PLUS slow movement. The everglades were very warm and now that she's gotten rid of the dry air, she has a good CDO going. Will be interesting to see how the Gulf Stream is holding up on the east coast of Florida.

Wow, check out FAY

Some interesting Data From the Wx Stations - You can move the map around and click on Stations

Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 19 2008 02:22 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Fay stronger at landfall then thought. [Re: metwannabe]
      #82292 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:14 PM

From southern DeSoto County... We were thinking the worst had passed, but it is really kicking up again. I'm guessing the gusts are around 45 - 50 mph. About 4" of rain so far. I'm enthralled watching this thing eat from Lake O. The eye just keeping tigher and tighter! Who knew?

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: SeaMule]
      #82295 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:27 PM

So what are the chances of this slow moving storm making a track more to north? With more strength and the low movement, is that possible?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: NC
Re: Fay Over Lake Okeechobee [Re: MikeC]
      #82297 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:33 PM

Is it my imagination, or is dry air being pulled in to the top left side of Fay? Both the water vapor loop and the radar seem to show this (the radar image is getting kind of flattened).

--------------------
--
Chris Bryant
Arden, North Carolina


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82298 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:35 PM

The NHC hasn't changed the NNE movement, although at times looking at radar it appears to go due North for a little while...but it has generally been a true NNE moving storm. Anything is possible, I suppose, especially with this storm.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #82299 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:51 PM

Watching it on GRLevelX which allows you to add the smaller towns for better reference points, and to archive as long as you want. I just watched it slowly and carefully.
For the past hour, it has been headed due north from Moore Haven, and the eye is now about to pass dead center over the Brighton Indian Reservation which is due north of Moore Haven. So there's been little if any eastern trend for the past 1.5 hours and none for the past hour. Of course this doesn't mean there won't be an Eastern wobble in the next 10 minutes. :?:

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: Bev]
      #82300 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:01 PM

Notice the left semi-circle of the storm as it expands in the last few frames of satellite imagery. Is this a sign of a more northern component of movement?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82301 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:06 PM

Fay is a determined storm isn't she? Her entire history has been one of defying the odds. It looks like the axis of the trough over the Eastern US has passed Fay's longitude, so does that mean she'll slow her forward progress even more? Let's see what the models will do at the 5PM major update.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #82302 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:09 PM

Over the last 6 hours the trend has been NNE and should remain that way. When we have all the tools that the mets have its easy to look and say its moving north for a bit then east, one direction or another. All storms have that classic zig-zag motion, this one is no exception.. But you have to look at the overall picture and the visible image over the last 6 hours clearly shows the NNE trend. The real issue here now is going to be how far south the high punches Fay back to where she will begin to somewhat stall. If this happens before she reaches the coastline then the storm will fizzle out much faster and the folks on the NE Florida Coast will be breathing a sigh of relief. If she gets out over the Atlantic again for any period longer than 12 hours she may have some more life left. Radar and visible sat are now showing some relatively dry air developing along the I-4 corridor... so its gonna be a close one!!!

--------------------
Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: MichaelA]
      #82303 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:12 PM

might be my eyes, but the radar is showing that the rain shield is not making it pass I-4 and there appears to be some mid level drier air working in from the north? From just south of Daytona to Tamp... there appears to be some drier upper air working under the cirrus clouds moving south... there was a line of clouds on Vis earlier that were over the Daytona Beach area, going from west to east and were moving south under the CDO... looks like the eye is begining to fill in too some.

this wx station is about in the center of the storm right now

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MS75WX

UPDATE: station is on the west side of the Eye right now.. and station is reporting 29.22in / 989.4hPa. at 3:13pm EDT

UPDATE 2: sensor seems to be having data trouble... but did send at 3:34pm EDT 29.16in / 987.4hPa. with a 14 mph wind.. dwn from 30 plus.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 19 2008 03:55 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: Bev]
      #82304 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:14 PM

It is pretty remarkable to see a tropical system actually develop an eye over land. As was mentioned above, whether or not a tropical cyclone is over water is not the sole determinant of whether it will weaken or not. In this case, the wind shear that had been impinging on the system from the west has relaxed, allowing the outflow to dramatically improve. As we've seen with a few other systems, the warm, humid, swampy conditions that prevail over south Florida can sustain (at least for awhile) a system in the strong tropical storm/low-end hurricane range if the other environmental factors are very favorable.

That said, Fay is running on fumes at this point and is starting to show a little strain. Cloud tops have warmed and the maximum winds on radar have come down slightly from earlier in the day. It is doing remarkably well for a tropical cyclone over land, but gradual weakening is still the most likely scenario until it emerges back over water. Model guidance is still not very clear on what happens with Fay after about 24 hours. NHC still has a very difficult forecast on their hands.

Radar has also been indicating some pretty intense small supercells in the outer bands of Fay over the Atlantic. These have tended to weaken as they move onshore, but areas near the coast will continue to see an enhanced tornado risk for the next several hours, along with a risk of damaging wind gusts.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Aug 19 2008 03:15 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #82305 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:21 PM

Not sure if this belongs here, or in the lounge, so mods go ahead and move it if need be. I took a few videos of Fay coming over Fort Myers, and here are the links.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=786036587459254830&hl=en

The above is from today. Notice the height of the river below us compared to the bridge. It is fairly high for what it should typically be.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7180175177789446794&hl=en

The Second one is as the feeder bands hit us the evening of August 17th.

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #82306 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:41 PM

Does anyone remember another storm like this? A tropical system that actually GAINED strength (higher winds/lower pressures) and an eye wall feature AFTER being onshore for this many hours? Landfall was at 5AM, so this seems rather remarkable to me. Now we've seen storms that lost very little punch over land (Wilma comes to mind) but Fay is clearly stronger at today then she was at landfall yesterday in Key West despite being many miles inland and up against a strong(ish) ridge. Regardless of the other "favorable" conditions (low shear/high moisture) this still does not compute to me.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: JMII]
      #82307 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:44 PM

Could Fay gain hurricane status before coming out at sea? How about right after?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: why is Fay Strengthening? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82308 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:54 PM

Storm damage in Brevard/Barefoot bay:
possible tornado from Fay injured 2 and damaged 51 homes.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
NHC projects at least 24 hours over the Atlantic... [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82309 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:54 PM

If this is what we are to expect...it will be interesting to see how much the storm intensifies. I expect it would not weaken below TS strength...and with over a day out there....hmmm....

On another note....the High Pressure is building quickly north and east of Fay...and the ridge to her west has broken down....with the water vapor loop showing increased moist air to her west...

perhaps at the 5:00 more info on the building high pressure systems that hurricanes avoid...will give us even more of an idea of what she might do...if she does indeed head due west.

If past tracks are indicative of the future ones...we can all bet it will change on the 5:00 update.

Since when does a tropical storm strengthen on land???? wow


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 7 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 38920

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center