OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
She sure appears as though she took a very slight NNW jog in between 18:45 and 19:15 UTC.
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
Current radar shows dry air very near the center on it's west side. We'll begin to see some weakening now.
--------------------
Michael
PWS
|
mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
|
|
Hello, VYS!
Before starting on Fay, you have the best take on- Russia finally returning fire
on the US -that I've seen so far.
And the only thing that could take me away from that is a Tropical Storm.
Fay's one of the most fascinating I've ever seen.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/...st-ever-on-fay/
veritas5 has some interesting ideas. Like Okeefenokee getting 20 inches.
It could use it.
Keep up the good work,
James
|
ricky
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
Loc: Palm City, FL
|
|
In Palm City FL winds have picked up more in the last hour or so to some of the strongest feeling we have had all day. I guess we are on the east edge of some of the deeper storms left around the eye.
|
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
|
|
Current Conditions just wont lighten up here in Fort Myers. Still extremely windy and rain. lots of it. I'm suddenly getting worried that the river below will flood..
--------------------
Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
|
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
|
|
Looking at the water vapor loops...and the latest water vapor loop from the ....Fay is not wobbling. She is being affected by the building ridge. The trough weakened and lift out totally...and she is now gonna be kicked back west.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif
Does anybody else see this...
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
The most recent Floater vis sequence looks like Fay has made a jog to the NNW, but I don't see that on radar loops. Wobble?
--------------------
Michael
PWS
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
At 5:00, Hurricane Watch Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound, Ga.
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
Check out this GOM Water Vapor loop. Why is there such an elongation in the wind field pattern to the west?
|
JMII
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
Guess this answers my earlier question:
Via his blog Dr. Jeff Master has referred to Fay as "unprecedented" and then added "I can't ever recall seeing such a large pressure fall while a storm was over land." Even he seems stumped by this turn of events, commenting "To have a storm intensify over land and maintain that increased intensity while over land for 12 hours is hard to explain".
And yet the crazyness continues as the models seem to be coming together, thus the is now showing Fay has a good chance of making a THIRD landfall in northern Florida.
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
This seems to back my comments of a more northerly component as of late:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 192043
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
|
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 68
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
|
|
QUOTE: Dr. Jeff Master has referred to Fay as "unprecedented"
The strengthening of tropical systems as they traverse South Florida does have recent precedence. TS Irene strengthed to Hurricane status while crossing from Naples/ Ft Meyers to Jupiter in 1998. Hurricane strengthed from a Cat 2 Hurricane to a Cat 3 Hurricane while crossing from Naples/ Ft Meyers to Jupiter in 2006. South Florida is very flat, with generally low growing trees and very swampy conditions. The water in the swamps is very warm in summer- can be 95 degrees or more due to the shallow dark bottom conditions. It is very easy to see why a tropical system would maintain or increase with the warm and moist environment!
--------------------
2022 forecast 21/11/4; 0/0/0 as of 6/1
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
|
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
|
|
Am I getting this right? The says that Fay will become a hurricane somewhere right about where I live (in New Smyrna) after *strengthening* overland?!
It looks like the (now well formed) eye is going to pass right over our area and so we should brace for real hurricane force winds?
--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
|
watchinout
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 17
|
|
I'm just wondering what everyone else thinks. I was looking at the graphs and maps and tracks and it looks like theres a storm system over Texas and another near the Rockies dropping southward. What do yall think is the possibillity of Fay getting in the Gulf reintinsifying and coming toward Florida again. After going into the Atlantic and hitting us. Kind of concern, Also seen the short track of 94L does anyone think this is a concern for Florida.
|
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
|
|
So far a 3ft storm surge is predicted for the Florida Atlantic coast here:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_surge.html#a_topad
Does anybody know what the expected rainfall from Fay will be in the Daytona Beach area?
thanks
--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
|
Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
Well, I enjoyed a brief lull in the weather here in Palm Bay. It's been constantly windy and heavy rain for about 5 hours. The bad weather has restarted and it seems to be raining ever harder than before.
--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
|
Soapyho
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 3
|
|
Has anyone heard anything about Ormond Beach?
|
JMII
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
Quote:
The strengthening of tropical systems as they traverse South Florida does have recent precedence. TS Irene strengthed to Hurricane status while crossing from Naples/ Ft Meyers to Jupiter in 1998. Hurricane strengthed from a Cat 2 Hurricane to a Cat 3 Hurricane while crossing from Naples/ Ft Meyers to Jupiter in 2006
Sorry that is incorrect:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/events/?id=wilma
Wilma went from Cat 3 to Cat 2 as she crossed the state. I'm very familiar with this storm as it went right thru my backyard (literally!)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999irene.html
Irene simply maintained her Cat 1 status as she crossed, the pressured dropped, but only 1mb. Oddly I barely remember Irene at all.
Clearly a storm can strengthen over the Everglades & Lake O but I don't see any cases were it happened before on the scale we saw today. A 10mb pressure drop while over land for almost 12 hours is an extremely rare event (once in a hundred years maybe?)
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
Bev
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
|
|
Hurricane Isbell in 1964 is the closest comparison I've found. She maintained strength while crossing the Florida Peninsula, entering with winds of 125 and exiting with winds of 125.
She entered at 4pm at Everglades City and exited north of West Palm Beach at 9pm, so her time over land was very short.
--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
|
mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
|
|
"Does anybody know what the expected rainfall from Fay will be in the Daytona Beach area?"
It will spin on your latitude.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2008/FAY/images/Storm-06-Spaghetti.gif
15 inches.
good luck.
James
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
