Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I thought she had stalled a couple of hours ago, but from 5pm to 8pm (or maybe it was 7pm) she did move slightly NNE. On radar,. it definately looks like she's sitting still!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Duane
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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Me and a couple friends from Sarasota are approaching Okechobee, FL after leaving the eye. At 8PM the eye was approximately 8 miles in diameter east to west with cloudy skies and calm temperature was 75 degrees, didn't have a barometer. Eastern eyewall had high/gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the 50 to 60 mph range.
We are still driving through heavy rain and gusty winds however not as strong
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ricky
Registered User
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Loc: Palm City, FL
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Looking at channel 12's radar out of WBP it does look like it is sitting still or even moved a little due east.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Here is the radar out of Melbourne Florida. Last half hour loop, she's just sitting there.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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It's too early to tell...it is certainly possible, and I am not convinced Fay ever sees GA.
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Yes, she does look like she's stalled...I don't know if that's temporary or what. Maybe since the ULL has moved out of the Gulf...I think that's what was causing her to go NNW last night...has pretty much died out, maybe she's trying to figure out where she's going. Hopefully she'll move because if she doesn't, the east coast of Florida is in for a long night.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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9pm advisory
REPEATING THE 900 PM EDT POSITION...27.5 N...80.9 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Based on this Floater.. anyone have an idea how many miles the center (so called) is from water?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Dr. Lyons indicated just a bit ago Fay may have bobbled South? Didn't / Don't see it
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Wed Aug 20 2008 01:10 AM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Fay is trying to find some energy as she is on the fence right now as where to head. She has really been dried out on the NW side tonight as many have pointed out but take note she is beginning to compact more now...
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 20 2008 01:08 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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There certainly isn't any north component of motion right now...it's trudging slowly due east. Very interesting, and problematic for the model solutions that bring it to near JAX for the 3rd landfall.
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Jason Kelley
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Jason (Clark, or Hank or whoever),
If (hypothetically) the storm did emerge further south than progged by earlier model runs, what would be the implications as far as second landfall point? Further South than Jax? Jax/North? As well as intensity. Particularly at the slow speed it is currently progressing at.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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It looks due east me which isn't so good because thats the shortest route to the water. Also when the 'North Turn' does occur, the further east it gets, the longer over water (note how the coastline tilts toward the NW)
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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It actually looks like its movement is even a little south of east. Sure is going to put a wrinkle in the next model runs. The joker continues to defy.
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Looks like due east on radar on the last few loops but we will have ot see what happens longer term. If she does continue this way though, may scenarios are likely to unfold...
1. How far east does she get before coming back to the west?
2. How strong will she be if she takes first an east path over the gulf stream, then due west path back over central Florida, only to head right back into the mid gulf?
This storm is causing lots of headaches for the masses... 
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Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NC
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Several years ago I heard a local met say that rapid pressure falls are good indicator of where a storm may go (short term).
currently
Vero Beach 998 mb
Fort Pierce 997 mb
Melbourne 1001mb
Orlando/Kissimee 1005 mb
Maybe I am stating the obvious with regards to pressures but Vero Beach and Fort Pierce are almost due east of Fay, there pressures have dropped...farther north have not. It does now appear to have an eastward motion.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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It's difficult to tell at this point. Looking at the floaters with Lat / Lon and forecast points on, still looks to be moving ENE. Just my eyes though.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
It's difficult to tell at this point. Looking at the floaters with Lat / Lon and forecast points on, still looks to be moving ENE. Just my eyes though.
Sats update every 30 mins....radar updates every 6 mins...you get much more quality data from the radar right now than you do the sat data.
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Jason Kelley
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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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I agree, I am seeing a wobble to the east also (yet I don't see the south movement yet).
I know the answer to this question might be to wait and see what the latest model runs show, but I live just south of due east in northern Port Saint Lucie.
Fay should not strengthen much (if it does end up moving straight east) until it reaches the ocean, correct?
Just trying to figure out if shutters should be put up in the morning if this passes over here tonight.
Or it might be too late since it is squally outside.
Thx
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Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne
etc...etc....etc....
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rayboat
Registered User
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Loc: Jupiter Fl.
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According to the latest GDFL model Fay Hangs around Florida for the next 72 hours! WOW
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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The Joker?? Last I rememberd.. It was called Fay  I know Dr Masters gave Fay that name but I think we should just call her Fay. Soo many Tropical Systems do crazy things. She is really no different (other than getting stronger over the glades). With all kidding aside, it will be interesting what the (especially) does with Fay on the 0z runs.. Oh btw even if she continues her east or ENE movement into the Atlantic, I dont think the models will pick up on that movement on this up coming 0z runs. 6z will be a different story.
Anyways with Fay, I dont see her geting further north than 28.6N making landfall. The ridge building in should halt her N movement tomorrow morning and have her meander.. If its already stoped its north movement, then Melbourne and the Cape might have problems Thursday-Friday.
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