gatorman
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ok kinda new to this forum, but enjoyed it alot,, anyways does anyone find it funny that the track of gustav is so straight? its being pushed to the NW by a high over florida, that is supposed to be weaker than earlier thought, wouldnt the steering currents have a northerly jog toward the north of the GOM? is the just throwing that out till it gets past cuba?? land interaction almost always throws a little curve one way or another?,, if in doubt look at the past track of gustav, he looks like a pin ball machine, ive been watching hurricanes for as long time and this year is odd to say the least?? anyways i'd enjoy anyones input, thanks
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hogrunr
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I think there are two things the are looking at with their NW track as opposed to a N track. There is another high pressure center coming down through the US towards the gulf coast. Since high pressure centers have a clockwise motion...this could catch Gus in it's steering current just like the one is right now that is positioned over Florida. Also, there is a trough area over TX that is also attractive to tropical cyclones, the question is, will the HPC move south fast enough to catch Gus in it's current before Gus makes landfall?
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xxflcyclonexx
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Loc: Charlotte County
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Was Googling and found a live video stream from Grand Cayman.
"A live view from the offices of Cayman Net News in Grand Cayman. If the image stalls or freezes and fails to restart automatically, please refresh the page by clicking the appropriate toolbar icon"
http://www.caymannetnews.com/flash/
Winds are whipping things pretty good in Grand Cayman but the Sister Islands are getting the worst of Gustav so far and have lost power the last I heard. Just the beginning of what will more than likely be a much more serious situation down the road  .
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Terra
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I do find the direct northwestern forecast to be pretty strange. I'm not used to storms who travel a straight line path, especially when there are so many steering currents at work. My gut is that it will go west of the forecast, because of the ridge, since says they are going more with the eastern outliers of the model guidance. For that reason, I had planned to stay home and ride this one out. However, it kind of stung when my friends reminded me that three years ago, I was also resistant to evacuate, but decided at the last minute to make the drive (thank God). Couple that with the start of manditory evacuations in St. Bernard, Terrebonne, and LaForche parishes this evening, and a pretty reliable rumor that my area will also be asked to leave. Anyway, barring any great change at 4am, I will be headed to Shreveport with the cat and kid. It's better to be safe than sorry, and it's definitely worth a tank of gas to protect your family.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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adriane
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I have been watching Gustav from the beginning. And living 24 miles North of Cocodrie, LA as of right now I'm not super stressing about this storm yet. I see in my opinion the track being too straight still. With as said before here, Gustav still has to pass Cuba and I would really think that this will cause the storm to "wobble" or possibly even have a break down to the right side of the storm from the land interaction. The GOM waters are super warm right now, but the shear in the Northern GOM is expected to be there as Gus approaches our coast. I'm still leaning more to a Morgan City/Lake Charles hit from everything that the models are implying right now. But still Big things can happen quick, so Good Luck to ALL. 
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omg
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Loc: Bradenton,FL
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I have enjoyed this web site for many years. This is my go to for the facts. I have lived in Florida since 1959. Retired from FPL. Went through many storms. Thank you for this great site to give the lay person an insite to the amazing natural force of hurricanes. My question is. Is Herburts Box a player in this case or is that a myth.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I looks as if Gustav may pass throught the NE Corner of Hebert's Box # 2.
This box is normally used with Fall Hurricanes, October and November. So I personally don't think the rule will be applicable to Gustav. It is something to keep an eye on.
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mcgowanmc
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Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Shreveport will get alot of rain.
I still think it stalls North of Houma.
Someone here can enlighten me, but I've never seen a CAT 4 stalled 50 miles inland,
the pushed SW to the Coast.
Note with Model Track 06Z, Gustav hits the coast faster.
A faster, stronger storm tends to curl to the NE.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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The model data for Gus shows a tight cluster that is right on the forecast track (straight as an arrow!), there is almost no variation in the models until right before landfall. Then all the models show a turn to the west at the end of their runs, so the real question involves Gus's speed and timing, it very well could make that turn BEFORE landfall and wind up in the middle of TX! I'm just worried with the focus on LA that people elsewhere are not preparing for this storm. Keep in mind the front moving thru the central US could out run Gus and draw him north putting those on the east side of the cone more at risk. However I'm sticking with more the west solution for now.
Currently Gus is NE of his forecast position, is this a wobble or a trend? Judging the overall picture I'd say its a wobble, the storm is not symmetrical right now - most of weather is to the SW, so once that wraps around we should find Gus's eye back on track by the time it crosses Cuba.
The low in the front of Hanna is all but gone now, her outflow is looking better, but her center is displaced so she's got some work to do... but that's a topic for another thread.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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hogrunr
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I am in Houston, and although the track is still to my East, I am definitely preparing the worst. I know that Gus is supposed to weaken some before landfall, but at the rate he is strengthening now, he could be cat 5 after he leaves Cuba and enters the Gulf. This would still put him at a strong cat 3 or cat 4 at landfall after some slight weakening.
Even though I am inland a little in Houston, if it really is a strong cat 3 or cat 4 I will be boarding up, and I plan on working on getting the wood and stuff together today. I hope others in Houston haven't been deceived by the track if it does turn this way. The mainstream media has done a good job though of expressing the uncertainty of the situation as Gus approaches shore, but they are also playing into the whole anniversary and focusing on NOLA instead of the locations that it is currently forecast to hit ie...Lake Charles and Lafayette and even Beaumont. It seems they have forgotten how much havoc and even weaker and smaller played on Beamont in 2005 as well.
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hogrunr
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The 11am EDT is out...a little stronger, and the track moved just slightly East. The forecast calls for a cat 4 by tomorrow morning after it crosses Cuba tonight. Monday morning at 7 am the forecast max wind speed is 120 KT, or 138 mph. This is supposed to be it's strongest point, so we'll see if Gus meets or exceeds that. All the forecasts are still calling for the left turn just after landfall, so we'll see if Gus holds up the 14mph speed he's got after he crosses Cuba. If he slows down earlier than thought, say within the next 12-18 hours instead of the forecast slow down in 24-36 hours, this could be trouble for Texas.
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EBinTX
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Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
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I'm new as a poster here, but have been following the comments on this site for a few years. It's simply great.
hogrunr, I'm south of you about 50 miles in Lake Jackson. We are watching VERY closely and may be leaving as early as tomorrow. I've had my eyes glued on Cuban radar (Punta del Estes) most of the morning. The northward movement that happened over the past six hours helps our case in TX. I believe the key will be the exact path over Cuba and how it emerges in to the GOM. If the current forecast track holds, my best estimate right now is that the 72 hour "cone" will be on the eastern edge of Galveston Bay at 08:00 EDT tomorrow. If it remains that way we will likely stay put.
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hogrunr
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good call by JMII earlier, the latest sat picture, besides looking extremely impressive in the eye wall building, shows that the convection on the SW side is starting shift around to the S, then SE and back around to the E side of the storm and with this, the eye is taking a shift W even though the overall trend is still NW. So by the 2pm EDT update, Gus should be close to being back on the previously projected path and not slightly East as it was...now to wait and see what happens as he comes off of Cuba.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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New notice
Quote:
Statement as of 1:20 PM EDT on August 30, 2008
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Gustav has continued to strengthen and now has maximum winds
near 145 mph...230 km/hr with higher gusts. This makes Gustav an
extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. A special advisory will be issued at about 200 PM
EDT to modify the initial and forecast intensities. The special
public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public
advisory previously scheduled for that time.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
I thought Gustav wouldn't be a 4 till *after* Cuba
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Chasingthespin
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This is just a simple lesson on how we can still only make an educated guess at the massive power of the Hurricane phenomenon. These storms are unique forces of nature and are as unpredictable as they come.
In almost 30 years of watching and tracking I am still amazed at the awsome power of these heat engines.
All I can say is ...... WOW !!
I sure hope this thing loses some steam after it wrecks Cuba.... Or the U.S. will be in a very serious delimma !
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hogrunr
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As far as Gus was from Cuba this morning when it's pressure dropped 32mb over night and went from barely cat 1 to almost cat 3, I thought the cat 4 after Cuba forecast was a little on the conservative side. Cuba is in for something horrible with this storm, especially the Isle of Youth that Gus is raking over right now. They have a confirmed wind speed reading from the Isle of 140mph.
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jf
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With GUS within a hundred miles of the coast of Cuba the forces of wind (140MPH) against land will turn the storm more toward the north as it passes over Cuba. As previously noted GUS has a mind of its own. If after passing over Cuba we don't get a fast move back toward the NW I would expect the to give great thought to shifting the track to the east and settting out warnings for the possible areas of their concern. The Fl Keys are already preparing from reports broadcast from local media.
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hogrunr
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As much as Gus may have a mind of his own now, he still can't just plow into the High pressure center that is centered over Florida, as much as the models are in consensus right now, I would say that the path would still be west-central LA or East TX. HWRF, one of the more accurate models this season still shows Gus to stall as it reaches the coast and drift west into TX.
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jf
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I suppose we'll find out in the upcoming hours as to how strong the High is. It appears as though it is retreating a little from its previous forecasted location and shifting East.
I wonder what the looks for when they decide to alter forecasts. Is it a concensus of Models or due they rely only upon their own data and skilled opinions.
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hogrunr
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They have the Forecast Discussions that they publish along with each public advisory and they detail what their reasonings were for whatever changes they did or didn't make. For a while with Gus they were going with the middle of the road out of the models since they were going both east and west, then they went with their own data some and stayed a little east of the consensus and now the only question out of the models that isn't in consensus is when the turn west will happen...I think the High pressure center that is moving south from the mid-US is forecast to sink faster on the Eastern Gulf side and thus kind of trapping Gus into the central to West gulf. Again, the only question with this is if the High will sink fast enough to turn Gus before he hits land. I think that's the only thing that could keep him from hitting central LA at this point.
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