MikeC
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TD#7 has formed, so this topic has been renamed to reflect that.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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well im not sure. with the blue track on the spaghetti models, looks like fay #2. too early to tell though, i guess we will have to keep an eye on it, florida. :/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Most the tracks have him moving slow which would say to me he is going to be very strong by the time he gets wherever he is going. And, climo would favor an Allen sort of track though not saying he will be like Allen but more like Allen then Fay unless he suddenly climbs poleward.
Really could use some model's to pull together.
Rare to see a storm down there so well put together.. nothing like Fay in that. At this rate it could.. I said COULD have an eye in 12 to 18 hours tops.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/allen1980.html
What bothers me with the tracks is the forecasted slow movement, he has been going at a pretty good clip.
A lot to think on this storm.. like some feedback.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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ftlaudbob
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Another thing to remember is,if it does get to be a powerful storm we could get the polar affect.This looks like a busy week.The conditions out in front of it look ideal for intensification.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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mikethewreck
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Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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The forcecast track has TD 7 going NW while the storm seems pretty doggedly heading more due west.
It looks to me like the last 2 model runs may not have initialized TD7. The 082418Z model run (the major hurricane in the Yucatan Channel run) seems to be the only recent run that depicted what seems to be working out in reality.
This could be a scary storm. Another example of a 2008 system challenging the experts?
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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JAH
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Quote:
This could be a scary storm. Another example of a 2008 system challenging the experts?
At least the noted that the day 4 and 5 forcast is not held in high confidence.
Edited by JAH (Mon Aug 25 2008 11:34 AM)
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sososleepy
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To my untrained eye, that last sattelite image sure looks like it has an eye....
The weather folks on TV used to talk a lot more about surrounding weather features and how they move the storm, but all the speculation quieted down in the last couple of years. Where do you folks think this thing will go over the next week and some, and why? Thanks.
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ftlaudbob
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Looks like we have Gustuv,recon should confirm this.I for one am hoping the forecast track changes,but that High should keep it on a general track towards S. Florida.I am not liking this storm,for many reasons,mainly for what appears to be rapid intensification and the potential track also the low wind shear around the system.I am in full storm mode now.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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RevUp
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The only thing we know for sure is this is going to bring a lot of rain to Haiti and D.R. in the short term. I believe track is too far north. After looking at satellite trends and model data - long term - I think it's more likely for Gustav to take a more westerly track south of Cuba toward Yucatan channel and then into the Gulf. Short term, I think the to the NW will be a big player, limiting further development and organization in the upper levels. Gustav won't strengthen much for a few days yet, and may weaken some, especially as it interacts with and land to the north. This is going to be another one of those storms to keep our attention through Labor Day.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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JMII
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Quote:
I believe track is too far north. After looking at satellite trends and model data - long term - I think it's more likely for Gustav to take a more westerly track south of Cuba toward Yucatan channel and then into the Gulf.
I agree. The has shifted its track west twice already, currently Gus looks to follow in Fay's footsteps.
The Water Vapor loop shows how its being compressed by the High to the north so until that moves out of the way its going to limit development and cause the storm to slide west. Early on Gus looked to blow up with great circulation and an "eye like feature" but now it looks more like a typical tropical storm (bit ragged, not symmetrical)
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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pcola
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wow..the latest and hwrf models are consensous, with a cat 3-4 hurricane just northwest of the western tip of Cuba next sunday...both looking at under 935mb....the is still not getting a grip in the system...it also looks like a weakness in the ridge on the steers the storm towards the central gulf coast....no more little tropical storms..for the first time this year we may be looking at a big storm
(Post moved from the Main Page - model discussion belongs in the Forecast Lounge. See the 'Clarification' post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 25 2008 09:25 PM)
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Old Sailor
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It seems to me that over the years( 80) or so with me, That Labor day weekend can bring trouble at someone's Door step. Looking at the Models my gut feel is that Gustav will end up in middle of the gulf ..
Tx,La, MS AL and Florida panhandle. lets not forget west costal FL..
(Post moved from the Main Page - model discussions belong in the Forecast Lounge. See the 'Clarification' post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum for guidance.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 25 2008 10:21 PM)
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Robert
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its possible its heading is a bit to the left. not due west wnw but i have to see a bit more if she is getting strong jogs could happen. Espessially when down around hati those mountains are so high sometime systems will go right around them. Fay for example seemed to just pin wheel all around them and cuba till she found a flatt spot. Plus We cant rule out the fact some models are forcasting a west turn soon so that the first thing to look for if no west turn start looking at models that didnt forcast it. I like the track right now so im not going to budge unles some real consolidation of the models happen, or its just obvious one has a better handle then the rest. It is interesting how 95L and the remenents of Fay are going to play into this. Im Waiting for fay to move i belive that fay and gustave should create a weakness in the ridge over florida and gustav should head are way short term. After that there are 2 scenarios that a anticlyclone over florida pushes gustav west as fay gets pulled out of the picture, and 95L follows. or the anticyclone is not as strong as thought evrything gets pulled out, Fay,gustav, 95l goes northwest and then out. then maby breather for a few days till something else pops.
Edited by Robert (Mon Aug 25 2008 10:44 PM)
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scottsvb
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I'm going to make a very early and quick forecast for Gustav. I dont see any reason why this wont head to the western gulf of mexico. The trough coming thru later this week into the weekend is just going to be too weak as most of its energy will be going thru the great lakes and new england.
With that said, This system is a threat from Lake Charles, LA - northern Mexico. A strong ridge is forecasted to remain over the eastern U.S. thru early next week and this pattern has been consistant.
The only slim chance this will affect S Florida is for this to move far enough north in the next 24-36hrs to be at least 100 miles north of Cuba, This is highly unlikely due to the ridging over the central bahamas.
scottsvb
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JMII
Weather Master
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Another big shift to the west in the models/track (as predicted), looks like a GOM storm is more likely. Alot of dry air to the north, Gus will avoid that by continuing to slide to the west. I know nobody wants this, but things are pointing to a major storm in the Gulf by the weekend.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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ftlaudbob
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Still heading NW not WNW,it needs to start moving more westward if it is to take the forecast track.If it does not start a more westward shift soon,than the forecast track will shift back to the right.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Aug 26 2008 09:07 AM)
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pcola
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the latest and hwrf models have Gustave as a major hurricane by Sunday...with the on Monday having it south of Mississippi/LA.......both models seem to be fixed on the central Gulf Coast , with NO right in the middle...looks like a long weekend of college football and Gustav watching
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Rob Moser
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Fox News has it going to a cat 5 in days.....
Just what we need.... early panic.
Rob
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MikeC
Admin
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Quote:
Fox News has it going to a cat 5 in days.....
Just what we need.... early panic.
Rob
It's possible given the setup, some of the models indeed do show a stronger hurricane than is forecast by the (see here).
To hype it up is a different thing altogether (and we aren't going to here), but the potential is there to be something very nasty when it gets into the Gulf. However, I have no clue where it will eventually end up or what shape it will be. But has a good shot at it around 84 hours out if the track verifies, Probably around a 40% chance.
Once it clears Cuba, it should be watched extremely closely and it has the potential to be a dangerous storm. Check model trends, and pay attention to the forecast closely through the week.
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ftlaudbob
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A couple of the models have shifted to the right,the longer it moves NW and not WNW,the better chance we will see a shift back to the east and north in future forecast tracks.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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