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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Artsy Fartsy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Fernandina Beach, Florida
Quick Update from Fernandina [Re: scottsvb]
      #82639 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:34 PM

Conditions are beginning to really deteriorate here in the extreme northeast area of Florida. The winds are really beginning to blow and the rain is getting heavy. It had been mostly quiet all morning long, just a few wind gusts of about 20-25 mph, now the gust are over 30mph.

Basically I am seeing what I was expecting last evening. Looking at the radar it looks as though this will be the tune for the rest of the day here. I'll update if conditions drastically change.

-Artsy Fartsy


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82644 - Thu Aug 21 2008 01:33 PM

We just had a feeeder band go through Delray Beach. It lasted 5 minutes, but heavy rain and 15 mph winds.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #82647 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:18 PM

well it looks like the very center of the circulation just came ashore just north of Daytona..it seems that the center is located there within the large area of non-convection...if the radar image is correct, Fay has begun a trek almost due west...it will be interesting to see if it keeps that heading..which will ceryainly mean heavy rain continuing with the storm towards the panhandle, and unfortunately, the Gulf Coast as most models stall Fay near the AL -MS border Monday...

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82648 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:32 PM

Question: If Fay goes over the Gulf and re-enters Florida is that considred a 4th Florida hit?

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82650 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:36 PM

Compare with her recent history, Fay is moving at almost breakneck speed across FL Seems like the reentry into the Gulf might be sooner than expected, which would lead to less weakening over land.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #82651 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:38 PM

if it has storm status..yes..that would be 4...and amazingly..it could be 5..Fay could reenter the Gulf south of St Marks and hit land at Cape San Blas..then go back to the Gulf before coming ashore in the western panhandle..long shot I know, but would be very interesting...It seems Fay is Taking a vacation in Florida and it going to make sure it visits every county

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Davida G
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Hastings, Florida
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #82652 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:47 PM

It's gone rather quite here in Flaglar Estates just near Hastings FL. We are under the COC and the rain and wind have slacked off. Last night the rain was really steady and the drainage canals and ditches out here are almost full to overflowing so instead of getting stranded at work away from home we elected to hang out here. Flaglar Estates floods for any excuse though I am expecting when the other side of this storm gets here there will be some major flooding in the area. We have a pinetree just off the southern property edge that looks like it is going down soon. It had started to crack about 2 and a half feet up and is listing about 50 to 60 degree angle. But it looks like it will fall in the wooded lot next door. The winds are very erratic here, sometimes from the NE sometimes not. Once the store finally starts moving west and the winds pick up I am expecting it to come down hard.

Edited by Davida G (Thu Aug 21 2008 03:48 PM)


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Davida G]
      #82653 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:07 PM

Right now, Fort Myers is getting nailed with Fay's feeder bands. Radar shows heavy bands of rain and lightning, which is what we are currently experiencing. We have the wind and rain here also. Looks as though Fay just does not want to go away. I know now that I don't like tropical storms, and I can only imagine what a Hurricane would do. Fay, if your listening Go AWAY!

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82654 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:11 PM

Well Fay is definitely on the move. My guess is due west at about 10mph just based on radar comparison over the last 4-5 hours. It is beginning to grab Gulf moisture and develop some feeders: one major feeder is entering over Lee County; a secondary is over Sarasota County and yet another near Tampa. I would not expect loss of storm status due to the transition into the GOM. Unfortunately I can foresee redevelopment of precipitation to the south of the COC and it will drag that large body of rain to its east along with it, so the portions of the peninsula already floating will get more and portions of the state not impacted with too much rain yet may yet some decent rain as Fay moves further to the west. The NHC continues to remind us the environment is favorable for reorganization when it gets into the GOM as long as the land interaction lessens. If the track is more to the due west as I suspect the chances of that increase.

--------------------
doug


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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: doug]
      #82655 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:16 PM

My imagination or does she look like she's sagging a bit southward on the JAX radar?

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: engicedave]
      #82656 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:28 PM

nobody is in the forecast lounge so I will post here...the ECMWF still has Fay going west southwest and stalling south of Pensacola/Mobile, then heading north as a hurricane....it is just one model but it has not changed for the last 5 runs, and the globals have been shifting south...no matter what she will still be able to tap the Gulf moisture and bring heavy rain..very humid here in Pensacola today so the water is there

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
actual heading is more wsw.... [Re: engicedave]
      #82657 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:31 PM

Since they started predicting and plotting the track of the hurricane...has anyone notice they have ALWAYS been right of the forecast track? The hurricane is headed WSW...albeit slowly...and on that track and speed....it will have PLENTY of time to strengthen if it stays in that general direction for a coupla days.

I would NOT be a bit suprised if we have a major event on our hands. by the time FAY reaches the GOM....she will have not weakened much...and will be prime for strengthening.

Not sure what the forecast track long term is...but one thing for sure....we will have a hurricane...in the GOM...in August...weak steering currents.....warm waters...perfect climactic conditions...

not good


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RickR
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Loc: Orlando
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82658 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:32 PM

Does anyone have a good link to accurate rainfall amounts around Central Florida? The mets are obviously talking about the amounts in Brevard but I was wondering what they are elsewhere.

Thanks in advance


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82659 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:34 PM

I'm in Northern Orange County and at around 4:15pm we had the heaviest band of wind and rain to date come through.
Current conditions are heavy rain and gusts to approximately 40mph.
I'm also noting the movement of the Center of Fay almost due North of my location by about 40miles.

I'm going to check the barometer to see what it's doing. I'm sure it's dropping right now.


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Mpabner
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Loc: Florida
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: engicedave]
      #82661 - Thu Aug 21 2008 05:15 PM

I agree. It does appear that the movement is wsw. May be just an elongation of the COC, though.

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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Mpabner]
      #82665 - Thu Aug 21 2008 05:56 PM

It may be a wobble, but it sure does look like wsw to me also.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82666 - Thu Aug 21 2008 06:02 PM

i do not see a wsw movement..just west....the center is moving very slowly....still very near where it came ashore, almost slowing again...the models will be interesting

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82667 - Thu Aug 21 2008 06:03 PM

For anyone who might be interested, I am doing a 30 min weather webcast on WJHG.com on Tropical Storm Fay starting at 7pm central...feel free to join us...look for the streaming video link on the upper left hand side.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: wxman007]
      #82668 - Thu Aug 21 2008 06:07 PM

Thanks Jason!!

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82670 - Thu Aug 21 2008 06:20 PM

We have had a suprising amount of wind and rain here in southwest Seminole county. Schools are closed tomorrow. Does anyone have a feel on just how bad we will be pounded? It looks to me as if she goes more on a westerly course, we will just stay in the main band of wind and rain for quite some time.

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