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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: pcola]
      #82736 - Fri Aug 22 2008 03:31 PM

At 3p ET, Fay is located along the Lafayette/Suwanee Co. border between the small towns of Mayo and Branford, moving WNW at about 5 mph. Fay has a bit of an inner core right now, but the primary significant weather is found in a circular ring about 20-30 miles in width extending about 60-75 miles from its center. On the northeast side, on the right side of the storm, a number of tornado warnings have been issued for rotating cells within this band and another to its north.

On its current trajectory, Fay may not make it back to Apalachee Bay, perhaps just skirting its northern shore near St. Marks later tonight. Enough of the circulation envelope will end up over water to perhaps allow the storm to maintain minimal tropical storm intensity through the nighttime hours. The point here, though, is that it does not matter if the storm makes it back over water or not: this is still a significant rainfall event for the southeast/northeastern Gulf coast over the next few days.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82737 - Fri Aug 22 2008 03:48 PM

I'm wondering about the potential rain impact on N.O. A number of the models have the rain going there. I tried to find the Katrina rainfall there, but it's showing as missing. There is a listing for "Abeliene NO", which shows about 12". I realize there were other factors beyond the rain that caused the K. problems, but what would be the impact of a very slow moving, heavy rain producing storm like F?

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #82739 - Fri Aug 22 2008 04:06 PM

the coc of Fay is near Keaton Beach, south of Perry, and looks to have a short 60 mile trip across Appalachee Bay, before hitting land again near Carrabelle...if Fay stays on a westward track, she may go back over the water briefly near Panama City, setting up the possibility of a 5th landfall in Florida later in the weekend..the odds of that ever happening again are long.....however, Fay seems to again have slowed her forward motion..the last time she did this she jogged north...if that happens again it could keep Fay over land or at least the immediate coast for the rest of her ride across florida..even though a small storm, I can not remember one that has been this interesting

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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Fri Aug 22 2008 07:18 PM)


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Trekman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Crusadier95]
      #82746 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:47 PM

Well, I left work early at Tyndall to a light, slightly wind driven drizzle. Five hours later sitting here in Fort Walton Beach, the rain has yet to get here. The rain is certainly taking its time getting here.

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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College


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gatorman
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Trekman]
      #82747 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:55 PM

Finally started to rain here in Panama City, almost 7pm,, wish this would have started earlier, some people are doubting this storm, because its taking so long to get here. winds picked up around 5pm.. hold on lets see what she has got!! ps**** 94L dont forget with all the coverage of FAY, fingers are crossed

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Trekman]
      #82748 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:57 PM

radar imagery shows Fay is not moving much...had Fay entered the Gulf 50 miles south of her present position, she may have had time to strengthen....especially at this pace....

(Post edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 10:58 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82753 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:04 PM

Recon has been consistently finding 50 kt winds south of the center over the Gulf around 29-29.25N, suggesting that Fay held together over land better than anticipated. I expect to see Fay upgraded to a 45-50 kt tropical storm at 11p or, at the very least, to see an explanation for the SFMR and recon winds in the 11p discussion. Note, however, that over land -- and even on the coast -- the strongest winds are closer to the 30-35 mph range with gusts to tropical storm force at times. That is the more important consideration to human interests, not what the storm may be doing over the open waters of Apalachee Bay.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82755 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:18 PM

Per Clarks comment:

A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 23:40:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°41'N 83°51'W (29.6833N 83.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 59 miles (95 km) to the SSE (155°) from Tallahassee, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,384m (4,541ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated


Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the southwest quadrant at 23:27:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb

I am coming more alarmed for tomorrows tornado setup that we might have here as Fay passes... there's a lot of breaks in the southern part of Fay right now. and tomorrow with the... sun, shear, flow from GOM...etc.... alot of factors are adding up.. should be a interesting afternoon in my neck of the woods

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 22 2008 09:23 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82756 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:29 PM Attachment (440 downloads)

Fay appears to be on track for her 4th and 5th landfall... now appears that she may pass just south of me, here in PCB.... but not by much!

(Post edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 11:00 PM)


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ricky
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Palm City, FL
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #82757 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:36 PM

Quote:

I'm wondering about the potential rain impact on N.O. A number of the models have the rain going there. I tried to find the Katrina rainfall there, but it's showing as missing. There is a listing for "Abeliene NO", which shows about 12". I realize there were other factors beyond the rain that caused the K. problems, but what would be the impact of a very slow moving, heavy rain producing storm like F?




I don't think it would be very good there and I am sure would cause local flooding, but hope not to find out as I am heading there next week and just got done dealing with her here in Florida.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: ricky]
      #82758 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:44 PM

Second Pass:

A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 1:02:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°41'N 83°54'W (29.6833N 83.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 58 miles (93 km) to the SSE (157°) from Tallahassee, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,395m (4,577ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (131°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 57 KT SW QUAD 01:22:00 Z
MAX OUTBOUND AND SFC WIND 53 KT SW QUAD 01:22:30 Z

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 22 2008 09:49 PM)


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82760 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:33 PM

Everything that I'm seeing has Fay stalling somewhere just North of New Orleans.

If anything I can't imagine Fay going thru/past the NOGC w/o veering to the North.

The greatest heat engine ever devised. Awesome.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: MikeC]
      #82761 - Sat Aug 23 2008 12:40 AM

A reminder that CFHC is not a chat room. There have been a considerable number of one-line posts that contain no useful content in this thread (and others). One-line posts are generally not permitted on the site in any Forum. Please review the site Rules for guidance before you post.
Thanks
ED


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #82762 - Sat Aug 23 2008 12:41 AM

right before the "4th" landfall... there was a blow-up of convection on the NE side... very close to the center... storms fired up to 25k-35k ft... and they are still showing some storng returns on radar as they are wrapping around to the west and southwest... they are really close to the center...... i have a slight feeling if Fay can hold with her setup... things could get interesting tomorrow as the center re-enters the GOM off Bay/Gulf County... south of Panama City.. Hopefully she will pass close enough to Tyndally AFB... they have wx sticks there that might gives us some good data before she enters the GOM.

**side note.. i think as she hit the coast.. she got bumped around a little... maybe a slight south of west movement? ***

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 23 2008 12:44 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82766 - Sat Aug 23 2008 02:29 AM

well i think i was right... heard she may have came ashore near sopchoppy? but the 2am says "AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA. "

so i think with that blow-up of storms near the center earlier, and coming ashore had her wobble/move to the south some... i really think she went down hwy 98 there... which means she should enter the GOM sooner than forecasted?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82767 - Sat Aug 23 2008 02:37 AM

Fay seems to be wobbling a bit here very near Dog Island, FL, just southwest of Carrabelle along the Franklin County coastline. This is likely temporary and the storm should resume a westward movement at 4-7 kt in the next few hours. Peak surface winds are still about in the 20-25 mph range inland with some higher gusts; winds just off the surface about 2000-2500 ft aloft to the east of Tallahassee have consistently been to 60-65 kt on radar this evening. Some of this is making it down to the surface but only in isolated gusts to 35-40 mph. The strongest surface winds remain over water south of the storm in Apalachee Bay.

Fortunately, there is not a lot of dry air intrusion into Fay right now. While it would likely help take care of some of the rainfall, it would also enhance the potential for damaging wind gusts to make it to the surface akin to the severe thunderstorms we see over land. As it maintains a healthy tropical structure, the primary threat remains rain rather than straight-line winds. Isolated tornadoes, particularly well east and northeast of the storm, also remain a concern with the threat region shifting toward I-75 in Georgia and North Florida tomorrow. Any breaks in the clouds well east of the center will help provide the instability needed for storms to rotate in those outer feeder bands. The SPC has this well-highlighted for the next 24-30 hours.

Ultimately, with Fay moving into the panhandle and skirting the northern Gulf, the precipitation shield on its east side is filling in significantly due to a large influx of moist, unstable maritime air. For the past 24-48 hours this inflow has been restricted by the Florida peninsula but now that is no longer the case. The numerical models picked up on this and seem to have been correct in advertising the rainfall threat to ramp up once the storm made it to Apalachee Bay. Torrential rains with avg. rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr in many areas are likely across southern Georgia and the Florida panhandle over the course of the day Saturday. Storm total rainfall figures are already in excess of 4" in many spots across the region and these will likely double tomorrow. Travel on the roads is not recommended due to the potential for flooding, downed trees, and downed power lines in this relatively heavily forested area of the southeast.

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Jumaduke
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Loc: North Florida
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82768 - Sat Aug 23 2008 07:26 AM

Fay is just an amazing storm. We dealt with her most of yesterday near Gainesville, with some blustery winds and lots of drizzly rain all day with a few heavier downpours. Now this morning, as she's skirting along the Southern edge of the Panhandle, my weather radio goes off for the first time alerting of a tornado watch until 3 p.m. Radar shows that most of her bands are West of us. Will she really not leave Florida alone?

And, is it official? Has she rained in every Florida county now?

I'm interested to see what she does once she hits Louisiana/Alabama and makes that sharp NE turn towards Birmingham. Could she get absorbed into a front system, come back East, and hit Florida again?

She's the Energizer storm.

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Go Gators!


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gatorman
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: pcola]
      #82770 - Sat Aug 23 2008 08:56 AM

seems like the eye is over panama city right now,,,unless this thing is REALLY impressive on the back end,, Fay has really been a over hyped small (to this point) rain storm, not much wind, and id guess maybe 2-3 inches of rain

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: gatorman]
      #82771 - Sat Aug 23 2008 09:09 AM

the coc of Fay is still due north of Port St Joe and has moved very little for the last hour..it did this last night as well...slowing and then scooting off west again..most of the rain from Fay will be on the back side, with the flow coming out of the Gulf....the flow in front of the coc is from the north and does not have as much moisture....Fay coc will reenter the Gulf at panama City..Fay does not have an eye as a large storm would, and has become a lopsided storm..the heaviest rains from Fay are now over areas the coc went over yesterday afternoon in the Big Bend area....if she stays gets back water the rain maker will be enhanced

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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Sat Aug 23 2008 09:20 AM)


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82773 - Sat Aug 23 2008 09:36 AM



Every hour is critical now for Fay.

Fay needs to stay at 30 degrees passing South of Pensacola in order to
get into Lake Pontchartrain.


And if FAY stalls and drops 25 inches on Lake P, levees will give way.

And of course New Orleans is not ready.

(Post edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 10:48 PM)


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