Clarification on Use of Model Outputs

Look at the byline at the top of the Main Page and you'll note that it says "Hurricanes Without the Hype". Well what does 'Hype' mean? Here are a few definitions:

greatly exaggerated publicity intended to excite public interest in something such as a movie or theatrical production
somebody or something overpublicized: a widely publicized person or thing
deception: a deception or dishonest scheme
hyperbole (hÄ«pÃ»r`bÉ™lÄ“), a figure of speech in which exceptional exaggeration is deliberately used for emphasis rather than deception
promotional publicity of an extravagant or contrived kind

For our purposes 'Hype' means to exaggerate something to excite the interest of other site visitors - unnecessarily or incorrectly. Discussions on the output of various tropical cyclone forecast models and the counter-arguments that often follow generates the greatest amount of 'hype' on this site - and defeats the purpose of our intent, i.e., Hurricanes Without the Hype. This is why the Forecast Lounge was created - to keep all of the 'model hype' off of the Main Page and the Storm Forum. Of course you can discuss a storm or a feature on the Main Page, but if you are going to drag the model outputs into it, put it in the Forecast Lounge. Remember that model outputs are not a forecast - they are guidance that can be used (or ignored) to make a forecast.

Regarding forecast models, here is the position:

"The National Hurricane Center does not generate a graphic of the models it uses to produce its forecasts. We do this because our past experience indicates such plots have confused users and detracted from our final message, which is producing official tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories. Some users have also become too reliant in the individual forecast scenarios presented by the many model forecast lines, some of which have little or no chance of being correct. This is not the message the wants to send."

This is not the message that wants to send either. Various model outputs are available on the site, but use them cautiously - and sometimes with a grain of salt.
ED

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

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