Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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Recon is approaching the eye from the SE with the eye obviously already inland over Hispaniola. Should be very interesting to see the data!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Gustav has continued to make its move more westward over the past few hours. I feel a west path will continue for at least the next 2 days with a slight jog to the WNW in 24hrs. Land interaction is happening with the high mountains probably is going to cause him to weaken somewhat over the next 12hrs.
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SeaMule
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Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Hispaniola_lrg.jpg
topography of Haiti....looks like it running west of the mountains....on a wnw track...
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DonaldT
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Hello everyone...I'm new to this forum, just joined today.
I've always enjoyed studying the weather, including tropical systems, since I was a teenager and am glad to have the opportunity to discuss that here.
These are my general thoughts on Hurricane Gustav:
I'm sure everyone else feels the same way, but it is quite alarming how quickly Gustav has developed (even for being a small storm). I guess big things do come in small packages after all....
I really hope this thing doesn't get into the Gulf...that would mean serious trouble.
I guess we'll see what happens....you just never know with these storms.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Following the center on the vis sat loop it looks like the center went in and is now headed more WSW almost off the southern coast. It is definitely not moving northwest anymore
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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How did you come to this conclusion? Till the Hispaniola coast it had been clearly on a NW-track, bending a bit more to the west. The eye had been slightly visible in visible sat. But that isn´t the case anymore and you can´t judge it from sat only now. I hope recon is long enough in the area to catch the center on the other side of small land tongue of Hispaniola!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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eye visible on Cuba radar
still looks to be moving at least WNW if not still NW, but eyewall seems to clearly be weakening quite rapidly
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NC
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Will be interesting to see what effects the mountains of Haiti will have on Gustav. Recall Fay also transversed this terrain but with no LLC only mid and upper level development, therefore it really did not have much effect on her. Mountainous terrain could effect an organized and stacked system with a LLC, such as Gustav much differently. Have to keep in mind, however, crossing at the narrowest point
unfortunately will most likely only postpone the inevitable intensification.
(the last frames of vis sat almost seems center moving right along spine of sw pen of Haiti, if this is case could disrupt circulation even more)
Edited by metwannabe (Tue Aug 26 2008 10:17 PM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Current surface analysis: You can see the periphery of the ridge over Florida and into the gulf. This image is includes the entire northern hemisphere so it skews the 90 deg from what we are used to looking at but, I liked the high resolution, it will also refresh so save this link.
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/nws1.gif
Edited by craigm (Tue Aug 26 2008 10:30 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
eye visible on Cuba radar
still looks to be moving at least WNW if not still NW, but eyewall seems to clearly be weakening quite rapidly
You can't tell ANYTHING from Cuba's radar. The resolution is not what we're used to in the U.S., so while it appears that the eyewall is weak, it might not be weak at all.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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DonaldT
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Quote:
Following the center on the vis sat loop it looks like the center went in and is now headed more WSW almost off the southern coast. It is definitely not moving northwest anymore
How is that possible...I thought Gustav was supposed to be making a more Westward turn eventually....
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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Radar and satellite looked at over a short period of time is interesting but not very useful in determining the track of any storm. You have to look at it over time. There are plenty of other ways to look at it, but I've found that the BoatUS graphic gives a clear picture of what is going on as far as how a storm is tracking, including the current wind field.
Bill
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Chasingthespin
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Thanks for that weather site. I can always use a new one. I hope when we
wake up tomorrow that Gustav hasn't form a solid eye. I don't like the looks
of this storm already....
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MikeC
Admin
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Just a note, as a rule in systems like this to try to keep the hype down, we're moving discussions of models past 3 days or so (ie, after it clears Cuba) to the forecast Lounge, right now I wouldn't bet on any of them, and mentioning particular locations along the US Gulf coast is definite lounge territory.
The system is still over Hati, and affected it, downgraded to a Tropical storm, and has Cuba to get past first, and I'm not sold on the models, I think the 's cone is something to watch, but I do not believe the track will pan out exactly as the line goes. Look in the lounge for other guesses.
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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have to say i can tell stewart appears to be on top of things again at the ... he sure was missed when he was called to duty over seas. have to say the 11pm discussion is nicely written, and i agree and am thinking the samething on Gustav down the road... needless to say its going to be a busy labor day weekend in the office! Everyone living on the Central Gulf Coast needs to watch this system, just to hard to say where its going at this point, thats just to far down the road... and a lot will happen between now and then... i saw that the price of barrel is starting to go back up... i can only imagin what will happen after this weekend... 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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based on the two recon passes i have seen.. Gustav is starting to exit the coast... interesting note... eyewall was open on the NE side... but another pass shows there is an circular eyewall now... about 14miles wide... still open on NE side... but sounds like its exiting the coast... i expect it will take about 12 hrs before Gustav starts going back down in pressure... and up in winds...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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I agree with this. The westward turn and slow down came in the wrong moment for Gustav, so that Hispaniola has taken a stronger toll on Gustav then expected.
And I hope for the longer term, that the worst doesn´t become true! 
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hurricf
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Gustav Strengthening
http://www.worldwidemeteo.com/
Please post your reasoning when making one liner posts. Which are Not permitted~danielw
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 27 2008 10:58 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT.
89.5W thats looks familiar.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Morning AFD Excerpts from around the Gulf Coast Region.
NWS Jackson, MS
...BY SUNDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
SAG INTO SRN MS WHERE THEY STALL OUT FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A 590DM 500MB ANTICYCLONE BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE
AL/TN BORDER. BY THIS TIME...HURC GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE CRANKING
THROUGH THE SRN/ERN/CENTRAL GULF REGION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. THE 00Z HWRF NOW ADVERTISING SUB 900MB PRESSURES FOR THIS
STORM SO ALL INTERESTS AROUND THE GULF SHOULD KEEP TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.
Bold Emphasis added~danielw
OBVIOUSLY OUR FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF
HURC GUSTAV WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING EVEN WEAKER
STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE GULF. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE SHOWS
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE NERN GULF MOVING ESE. THIS
2-300MB TROUGH COULD VERY WELL SERVE TO SLOW/TURN OR EVEN LOOP GUSTAV
BEFORE IT CAN PROGRESS TOO FAR WEST...WE`LL BE IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
ON THIS ONE.
NWS Slidell, La
...LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV PLACES THE STORM IN THE MIDDLE
GULF PRECARIOUSLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST OFFICE WITH THE IMPLICATION OF LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...70-80 PERCENT POPS AND RA+ WEATHER ELEMENT BASED ON
TRACK EXTRAPOLATION...THOUGH THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE REQUIREMENT OF A
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH A PROBABLISTIC UNCERTAINTY
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING. OF COURSE...CHANGES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING AS FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN IN TIME.
NWS Tallahassee,Fl
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FROM THE FL STRAITS INTO THE SERN , AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NWRN GOMEX. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD STEER
HURRICANE GUSTAV ON A NWLY COURSE INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND PER THE LATEST FCST TRACK. OUTLIERS ARE THE
AND WHICH ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NWWD TOWARD THE TX
COAST. THE 00Z TAKES GUSTAV FURTHER N ACROSS THE FL STRAITS LATE
SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY MEANDERS THE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GOMEX. DUE
TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF GUSTAV, LOW CONFIDENCE
DICTATES NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS. BASED ON
THE PROJECTED POSITION OF GUSTAV BY 120 HRS, WILL CONSIDER RAISING
WINDS AND SEAS (MAINLY SWELL) FOR OUR OFFSHORE LEGS BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
NWS Tampa,Fl
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL TRACK
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
THIS MORNING ARE OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGES
TO INHERITED GRIDS AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL (POPS ~40% TEMPS ~90) THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
NOTE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON GUSTAV...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING
ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center.
NWS Key West,Fl
....LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS MAY GRADUALLY ERODE ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TIP OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY EXTENT OF WEAKENING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH THAT THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT OUR SERVICE AREA. IN FACT...PENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WITH DEEPENING AND INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATES FOR THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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