Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #82966 - Tue Aug 26 2008 09:58 AM

what models and post links please. For this to affect Florida it has to get north of Haiti-Cuba over the next 24hrs or so.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: scottsvb]
      #82967 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:10 AM

Have seen no models shifting right of Cuba...some of the BAMS have come east from a central america landfall to be in line with the GFDL and NHC track....this is a gulf storm, and very possibly a western gulf storm.

(Off-topic comment removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 11:08 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: pcola]
      #82968 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:17 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #82969 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:20 AM

agh, i think it will shift east. keep in mind how rash and quickly these tracks change. this isnt 1990 anymore where they were more dead on with the spaghetti models. the atmosphere is highly unstable so its making things more hard of a read. and plus we have like 3 other disturbances out there and it looks like gustav is playing bumper cars with 95l. :X

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 541
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: scottsvb]
      #82970 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:21 AM

The models all show a general NW motion till Weds, then a run of nearly 24 hours DUE west, moving Gus thru the gap between Cuba and Jamacia. The models (and NHC) are very good within a 3 day window especially when all of them agree. Once again the water vapor loop shows a good push coming from the north of Gus's current position, so that will limits its northern movement. Basically it will hit a wall at about 20 N, then have no choice but to go more west. There is a weakness to the east of FL (in the Bahamas) that provides a window for northern motion but that window does not open till Gus gets to atleast 80 W which will take till Thursday at his current speed.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: JMII]
      #82971 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:28 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #82973 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:34 AM

BOB you said the models shifted east, you have to support it with links. There are no models that shift it east at this time. Just cause its moving NW and might say it @11am doesnt mean it will stay that way. Models have been showing it moving NW until later tonight. Again the only chance this has to make it to south florida is for this to make it far enough NW to be north of Cuba by tomorrow morning. I highly doubt that, but a very strong system might make that happen (30%)

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
lsutigerfan
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 4
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: MikeC]
      #82974 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:35 AM

Mike,
I live in Baton Rouge, La. and have become very nervous by the looks of the track this morning. I know it is a long way off, but I was wondering if you see anything that could happen to make this storm move away from Louisiana?

We are still recovering from Katrina and the thought of another major hurricane is quite frightning.

(For all new users to the site - use the Private Message capability whenever you wish to correspond with another site user.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 11:17 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: lsutigerfan]
      #82975 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:40 AM

Models will shift back and forth a bit even though they seem consistent now.

It's better to watch the movement of the storm and compare it to the short term part of the models
to see how they are playing out.

One always breaks from the pact.

Some of these models refuse to develop it just 24 hours ago when it was not yet classified. To me that's a red light I worry on.

Watch 3 day, keep your eye on 5 day range and keep watching the storm itself!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: craigm]
      #82977 - Tue Aug 26 2008 10:55 AM

Looks like the latest GFDL is forecasting Katrina Part II. It has Gustav with 145 mph winds, 150 miles southeast of New Orleans, LA at 12Z Sunday...ironically, the day after the three-year anniversary of Katrina. I would say the entire Gulf Coast is under the gun at this time and we could be looking at a major U.S. landfall next week.

(Post moved from the Main Page - model discussions belong in the Forecast Lounge. See the 'Clarification' post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum for guidance.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 01:47 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: LoisCane]
      #82982 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:19 AM

If this thing,and it is a big IF,makes it into the GOM than it could become a monster cane.But if it stays on it's current track than South Florida could see a cat 2 or cat 3 cane.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CanWatcher
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #82986 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:25 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: CanWatcher]
      #82988 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:26 AM

CanWatcher, the 11am advisory and forecast path has the easternmost part of the 5 day cone touching florida. while it isnt a direct hit it still has it in the cone.

Edited by Evan McCone (Tue Aug 26 2008 11:29 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Hurricane Gustav, Strengthening, Approaches Hati [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #82992 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:38 AM

Yup,still heading NW,we may see a shift to the east on some of the next model runs. If it does not turn more west very shortly than they will have to shift the track a little further east.Remember models change a lot with these stormsIt is important to note that conditions are always changing,what we have now is just a snap shot.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Aug 26 2008 11:43 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: CanWatcher]
      #82993 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:42 AM

While this Forum is not as strictly moderated as the Main Page thread and the Storm Forum, some of the basic posting rules still apply. If you wish to thank someone or respond to a specific individual, use the Private Message capability - CFHC is not a Chat Room.

The one line post rule still applies, i.e., don't make them - there are very few exceptions to this. Don't simply state the obvious. One-line posts consume bandwidth and that can become a problem when the site gets busy - and the site is starting to get busy.

Don't get into an argumentative discussion with someone - take it off thread via the PM capability.

Your help on these items will allow the site to manage the processing burden and prevent it from crashing.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Admin Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82995 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:51 AM

Need a little clarification on the possible interaction betwee G and other systems. From the 11 NHC, there are actually two other potential systems...95L and the one east of it. Actually, the NHC gives the east one a higher chance of development.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rob In Miss
Unregistered




Re: [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82997 - Tue Aug 26 2008 12:06 PM

Looks like this could be "Katrina Two" in the making. I'm a structural engineer that moved to Biloxi from Tampa after Katrina and have been to all of the areas hit by hurricanes since Charlie except for those in Texas. While the speeds posted by the NHC is one thing, another possibly more important consideration, is the "size" of the storm. I observed far more "wind" damage from Charlie than Katrina even though Katrina had ten to a hundred times the devastation and size. While watching where this storm goes and the intensity of the wind, I wish there were a way to more accurately predict the size and swath of the storm's surge. Cat 3's are not supposed to have 30 foot surges but it happened. With the potential path of Gustav having plenty of time and distance to push the water towards the coast, my bet is that the storm surge from this hurricane may unfortunately be the story again.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: [Re: Rob In Miss]
      #83001 - Tue Aug 26 2008 01:46 PM

Quote:

Looks like this could be "Katrina Two" in the making.



Please be very careful about making these kind of alarmimg posts. To this point there are very few similarities to Katrina and it is VERY far away from Louisiana. I usually wait until the moderators here (who are mostly what I would call experts) make that kind of comparison before 'going there'. Otherwise, it just freaks some people out and people get freaky enough about these storms. Gustav is a nicely formed little storm that will shake up Haiti and the south coast of Cuba the next couple days. Beyond that there nothing that is for sure. Anything is possible, from a cat 5 to it blowing itself out and disappearing.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rob In Miss
Unregistered




Re: [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #83003 - Tue Aug 26 2008 01:51 PM

I apologize if the post seemed alarmist. The point of the post was to pay attention to the storm surge and not focus on the wind speed only.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
Cat3 30' storm surge [Re: Rob In Miss]
      #83005 - Tue Aug 26 2008 01:56 PM

(Off topic 'Katrina' post was deleted.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 02:29 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 88 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 110540

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center