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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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scottsvb
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #83257 - Thu Aug 28 2008 10:56 PM

Gustav is a pretty easy forecast in the long range- Lake Charles LA- Galveston Tx but Hanna is a different story....too many varibles go into effect here with her. We wont have a good idea on Hanna until the trough passes her by... probably by Sundays 12Z runs we can start locating a impact area or none at all for next week.

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metwannabe
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #83259 - Thu Aug 28 2008 11:18 PM

Obviously anything pass 3-5 days is nothing short of guess work but it would seem that the high that might force Hanna to the sw late in the track were to continue to migrate eastward than H would eventually turn back w or wnw or nw around the back side of that high. Assuming the high maitained its strength.

Does the GFS hint at this?

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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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saluki
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #83265 - Fri Aug 29 2008 01:10 AM

The Hanna scenario is looking a little too much like 2004's Hurricane Jeanne for my liking. I suspect this one will keep the entire Florida east coast on edge next week, but it's early in the game and much can (and probably will) change. Best thing about the NHC's track (which certainly will shift over the next few days) is that it really slows Hanna down in five days, still keeping it 500 or so miles due east of my location. Perhaps the slow motion, if it plays out, would provide enough time for something to come in and sweep Hanna out to sea (although this far out, it isn't apparent to my untrained eye if there's anything coming along in the middle or latter part of next week that would accomplish that).

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Evan Johnson
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: saluki]
      #83291 - Fri Aug 29 2008 10:35 AM

i see the current models point to the extended SW movement of hanna. but what about the system moving gustav to the NW does the "what goes down, must come up" rule apply to this? this is extremely confusing to me.

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hogrunr
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83345 - Fri Aug 29 2008 09:21 PM

Anyone see the similarities with Katrina with this hurricane? A little further east to start, but the same predicted motion...

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/2005/katrina.html?from=hp_news


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JMII
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: hogrunr]
      #83414 - Sat Aug 30 2008 10:54 AM

Hanna's outflow looks good this AM but with the center displaced it hard to tell what's going on. Even harder to figure out the future track given the range of models. As I said in the Gustav lounge storms rarely move south so its hard to believe the NHC solution at this time... but they are the experts.

After a stall or loop Hanna looks to head NNW and more towards the Treasure Coast of FL similar to Jeanne. Now Dr. Masters mentioned that Hurricane Besty had a similar swing to the south all way thru the FL Keys before moving on to LA! However the historical data suggests the northerly path is more common.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


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craigm
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #83430 - Sat Aug 30 2008 12:43 PM

Excuse the one line post. As far as Hanna's track you might as well throw a dart.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
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scottsvb
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #83450 - Sat Aug 30 2008 02:15 PM

Hanna is up in the air right now. Models shifted eastward except the Ukmet.Further west it gets in the short term might be what will get this to florida or not.

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Evan Johnson
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #83465 - Sat Aug 30 2008 05:17 PM

5pm advisory hints at a possible wnw then NW track putting florida back on the hot spot. something tells me this is because gustav is moving further away from hanna.

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saluki
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #83472 - Sat Aug 30 2008 05:43 PM

Quote:

Excuse the one line post. As far as Hanna's track you might as well throw a dart.




It almost looks like the NHC did exactly that with its 5 p.m. track forecast, which doesn't seem to bear much resemblance to any of the models. I said a few days ago that Hanna would keep those of us on the east coast of Florida (and maybe points north based on a few of the models) guessing, and there's no reason to change that assessment. In the long term, how much impact will shear have, and will it relax (as indicated in the NHC discussion) toward the latter part of the week?


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native
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: saluki]
      #83476 - Sat Aug 30 2008 05:53 PM

You know there's got to be all kinds of explatives being muttered over at NHC with Hanna.

They've basically just split the differences with the models right down the middle. And I can't blame them...what else are they supposed to do. The models are all over the place.

The 5pm Disco (which contain alot of the same thoughts as the 11am disco, both produced by Forecaster Brown) clearly states that they have very little confidence in the track. Not only are the model tracks all over the board but so are the future intensity estimates.

I'm just doing what any sane/smart Floridian should be doing with this one. I am fully prepared and I'm just staying informed and up to date.

Personally, I'm far more concerned for those on the Gulf Coast than I am for anyone down here. Just keeping it in perspective.

Edited by native (Sat Aug 30 2008 06:14 PM)


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cjzydeco
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83479 - Sat Aug 30 2008 05:56 PM

The 12Z ECMWF takes Hannah towards the SW to just north of Hispaniola by Tuesday. It then bounces her up the east coast of Florida on Thursday with an apparent landfall in the the Cape vicinity on Firday. She then runs up and into Georgia, which would appreciate a significant rain event.

The ECMWF then bring a new storm into south Florida by Tuesday, Sept 9!

ECMWF 12Z

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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insight
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Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: craigm]
      #83496 - Sat Aug 30 2008 09:16 PM

Hi..I'm new here, but I have a quick question. In this loop, what is causing the "boiling" effect that comes off to the right?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


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cjzydeco
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Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: insight]
      #83537 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:36 AM

I'm no expert, but I think the "boiling" appearance usually indicates rising cloud tops and new storms fire up. It this case, they appear to be accentuated by the rising sun illuminating the cloud tops from a low angle.

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Evan Johnson
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Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: cjzydeco]
      #83538 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:50 AM

as of the 11am update, everyone is still very confused. there is still a fork in the models and none of them can come into agreement. the projected N then NE past shifted further west from the 8am to the 11am. we will have to wait for the 2pm and the 5pm to form some sort of consensus. this is one of the most unpredictable storms i have tracked in quite a while.

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native
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Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83542 - Sun Aug 31 2008 12:32 PM

I think we would have to consider ourselves extremely lucky if NHC were able to get a handle on her by 2 or 5 today.

I'm thinking it'll be more like late tomorrow night. I'm not putting too much stock into anything about her right now because, in my own very unmet opinion...I don't think the 11am update has her coordinates quite right. I think she's about .6 degrees further north and about .5 or .6 degrees further west. I'm also not completely convinced on the WNW movement either.

Who knows though...could just be that my eyes have had enough already with being up half the night looking at all the data I could get my hands on.

I just hope the UKMET doesn't pan out....especially if she's a little further west like my eyes see she is. We don't need another storm...tropical or otherwise to even sniff anywhere near the Gulf.


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Evan Johnson
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Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: native]
      #83546 - Sun Aug 31 2008 01:12 PM

also, in my opinion the fact gustav has sped up considerably (went from landfall tomorrow night to tomorrow early morning) might come into play for the forecast future for hanna, as the eastern most part of gustav has been helping shear the storm a bit. a lot of factors come into play just because gustav and hanna are a couple hundred miles apart.

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RevUp
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: cjzydeco]
      #83552 - Sun Aug 31 2008 02:22 PM

Problems inherent with defining a center of circulation in tropical systems are well-documented in the case of Hanna here. As several users have noted, the COC has seemingly been farther north than the official fixes. This all has a bearing on the short term forecast accuracy. I do agree, though, that Hanna will hang around the central/SE Bahamas until Thursday (waiting for Gustav to do it's thing first?). Look for Hanna to get stronger and more organized by then as well.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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JMII
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: RevUp]
      #83563 - Sun Aug 31 2008 03:32 PM

Hanna is a real mess right now, I wonder if she'll survive at all as the shear from the outflow of Gus is limiting her ability to get spun up. Heck at this point she looks more like a Tropical Wave then a TS! The eastern tip of Cuba is in for a lot of rain but the Bahamas are nice and dry.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


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Brent K.
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #83577 - Sun Aug 31 2008 05:49 PM

I wanna ask, How much weight does the UKMET have to the others? It seems like that one and the LBAR are the biggest outlier from the others.

I am in South Florida and with the tracks from the NHC it kinda worries me that the UKMET has it swinging that far west.

Why does all of the models show a loop and the NHC shows a straight WNW to NW turn. Is this a dart throwing from the NHC or are they on to something about the track?

Sorry I am a novice at forecasting and I find it fascinating on the different tracks from run to run.


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