Storm Cooper
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Not really sure where you are getting your data from but there is no "loop" in the modeling. As for the "dart throwing" by the ... the forecast track is pretty stable the last few runs. Model data can be found on the Main Page (if you did not know) and here is the a few more and it really reflects the track. These are the latest model runs. That may have been the issue.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 31 2008 10:17 PM)
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Brent K.
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Well i am looking at the runs and most of them seems to make a loop down towards Cuba then goes to the nw. Is this the models way of showing and erratic movement? (here is what i am looking at) http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=08&av=200883116
I look at a few other websites as well as this one. Just wondering is we here in So. Fla have anything to worry about
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Storm Cooper
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Just a few doing that. You should look at the majority and you will see a fairly tight group. I do certainly hope you have an idea of what the models are and how to use them. Go with the forecast track in the end and don't focus so much on the models.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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JulieTampa
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Brent, I see what you mean about the loops. It looks like many of them have loop, which the is disregarding. I'm no expert, but as a several year lurker, I notice the LBAR is always an outlier. The seems to be more reliable, and the BAM ones kindof out there, but not as much as LBAR. Would everyone agree with that? I think that since the knows the strengths and weaknesses of each model, they know which ones to account for given certain situations.
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Storm Cooper
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You made a great point and this may help as I failed to bring this up before. Read the Forecast Discussions issued from the . They often mention the models they use to factor into the forecast... and the best performers most of the time.
Here is a part of the 5PM Discussion....not too much model talk but you will get the idea...
THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER
OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE
THE AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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craigm
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Time to put the dart board away. The most reliable models IMO are the , UKMET, and HWRF the forecast usually is influenced by these the most. Environment seems to be evolving enough to clear up the range of solutions we have seen in the past couple days. UKMET has been persistent in sending Hanna west while most other models started sending her towards the Carolinas. Waiting on the 18Z UKMET to see if there is any change in the way they are dealing with the data. Last run of has moved significantly west so for the time being the recurving senario is not holding. Studying surface maps I am not seeing any feature that will pick Hanna up --yet. You can see the bulge in the ridge that wants to stall/loop her.
http://www.weathermatrix.net/weather/incoming/tropics.png
Going to be a couple interesting days coming up especially with Hanna's sudden burst of intense convection tonight. Regarding Gustav-- we need to keep everyone in that area in our thoughts tonight as it looks like they are going to take a pretty good hit.
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Weather hobbyist
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scottsvb
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Actually Hanna is quite disorganized... her center is on the NW edge of the T.Storms. Hard to pinpoint exactly where unless we had recon in there now. If Hanna stays weak thru tonight and makes it more WSW past 75dg by tomorrow afternoon, Florida will have a very good chance of getting a hurricane by Thurs or Friday. If Hanna finds its way into the T-Storm complex and it gets stronger tonight into the morning, then she may go along with the -HRW models. Tonight into tomorrow could tell us Floridas fate,and which model had the best handle on this.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum - no models currently bring a hurricane into Florida. They may eventually or they may not, but right now this is the better place to discuss any possibilities.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 01 2008 02:45 AM)
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saluki
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The first few 00Z models to come out seem to be narrowing the spread. has shifted a bit west and shows Hanna hugging the Florida coast but staying maybe 100 miles offshore on its way to an eventual landfall in South Carolina. The UKMet has moved east and now shows a landfall near the Broward-Palm Beach county line and heading northwest over Lake O through Central Florida and then north. Still awaiting , and HWRF.
And repeating what many others have posted, my thoughts and prayers are with those who will be affected by Gustav on the Gulf Coast.
Edited by saluki (Mon Sep 01 2008 05:24 AM)
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cieldumort
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Hanna is looking remarkably healthy in Infrared channels early this morning.. and it does now appear that her LLC has probably nestled under some of the coldest tops. While some shear is still being imparted over the cyclone from Gustav's outflow, this should be easing little by little today and tomorrow.
Recon is slated to be out in Hanna by midday. Chances are that they will find she may have been a stronger cyclone overnight.. possibly still so this afternoon.
Image from 1045 UTC uploaded as an attachment.
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Evan Johnson
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as i have GOES-E up i see that flare. it has become a fairly organized storm from almost being sheared apart. florida needs to keep a eye on things today and tomorrow, as all the forecast models keep moving this storm west. although some of the models come into agreement, dont let it fool you. as every update goes by and a west movement is still being upheld, this is a red flag for florida. when the forecast models tighten up like gustav did thats when you have a sure fire bet of a projected path. meanwhile lets bang our heads together and keep on top of these updates today.
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craigm
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Recon is getting close to the center of Hanna. This is about 10mins. old:
Time:
14:56:00Z
Coordinates:
23.6167N 73.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press:
843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,518 meters (~ 4,980 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
1003.3 mb (~ 29.63 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 65° at 53 knots (From the ENE at ~ 60.9 mph)
Air Temp:
18.4°C (~ 65.1°F)
Dew Pt:
17.0°C (~ 62.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Storm Hunter
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recon is about to pass through the center from the NE... i'm seeing higher flight level winds, and SFMR is seeing some strong winds too
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html
being so small i expect the system will move around a but... can see nw shear from Gustav dropping by....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ed in Va
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TWC says Hannah now a hurricane. I've got to believe this unexpected quick development is going to pull her northward sooner than predicted. The officiall forecast doesn't call for her to be a cane until Wed am.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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ftlaudbob
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00
WTNT43 KNHC 011732
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HANNA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
130 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF HANNA. DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS
NOW A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD AT ALL FORECAST TIMES. THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST FIX. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES
THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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hurricane_run
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Yes the posted a 130 Advisory on Hanna as a minimal Hurricane. This is going to be something to watch for the east coast.
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Evan Johnson
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the 2pm has hanna as a minimal category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph. the wsw track is still occuring and the storm looks very organized on the infared sat pics. the forecasted future has not changed as far as the path of hanna, and the computer models are now more tight together. narrowing the opinion of a closer hit to the florida east coast. we will have to watch it closely but it is starting to look like we might get lucky.
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scottsvb
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Only the Ukmet has a florida hit with the and close to Jacksonville. The said they will adjust the path @ 5pm. Probably a slight eastward start then following the 11am track after 48hrs. Nothing really has changed on future track reasoning except its strength. Hanna last night went into the deep convection, if she hadn't she would be further WNW closer to 74dg by now, but still she is where she is. Right now I have Hanna closer to 73W and probably 73.2W by 5pm but the might be conservative and locate her @ 5pm near 72.8. Hanna is moving WSW about 5-6mph. She should sag more SW or SSW later this evening. The question then becomes does she meander or then drift W just north of Cuba on Tuesday. This along with the speed of the ridge building back in with the exiting axis trough to her north will determine how far west she gets from Weds-Sat.
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ftlaudbob
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Quote:
the 2pm has hanna as a minimal category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph. the wsw track is still occuring and the storm looks very organized on the infared sat pics. the forecasted future has not changed as far as the path of hanna, and the computer models are now more tight together. narrowing the opinion of a closer hit to the florida east coast. we will have to watch it closely but it is starting to look like we might get lucky.
All the models I have seen have not been updated,they are from 8am this morning.Hanna is still heading WSW,so don't be surprised if the models and the official forecast track move west later today or tonight.Need to really watch this one.
Then we need to watch TD9,that one is forecast to be Ike shortly,and is on a track towards Florida. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
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If this gets anywhere near Savannah, I think this song will become infamous Hard Hearted Hannah, the Vamp of Savannah.
However, I think Hanna still is baffling, generally heading toward the south and west and doing a "loop" now, the discussion continues to mention South Florida all the way to North Carolina needing to watch, this system is more unsure by far than even Ike.
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Evan Johnson
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well the 5pm doesnt tell us a whole lot more other than the fact it will intensify to a cat 2. and its moving SSW. and all the other nonsense brewing in the atlantic is mind boggling. this is a amazingly active season so far.
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