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#98L continues pushing inland Deep S. TX. Heavy, banding precip with gusts to Trop Storm force along the S. TX coast currently underway.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 350 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1404 (Michael) Major: 1404 (Michael)
 


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Current motion [Re: pcola]
      #84377 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:25 PM

We should have a better handle on the situation later tonight into tomorrow as the NOAA G-IV plane flies its mission to sample the atmosphere well out ahead of Ike. This data would be fed in to the 00 UTC computer models it will be intresting

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Current motion [Re: pcola]
      #84380 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:52 PM

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.

Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !


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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: danielw]
      #84385 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM

Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?

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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: danielw]
      #84387 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:38 PM

Quote:

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.

Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !




More like the cone of Uncertainty

I think at the 11pm EDT update Ike is going to have strengthened a good deal more than at the 8pm EDT update. His eye is much more defined than it was and he is looking more and more impressive.

Also, looking at the water vapor imagery from the GOES satellite, the ridge that is supposed to create the weakness for Ike to turn north with is already almost over Florida, and Ike is still almost 2 days away from turning back to the NW over Cuba...this feeds into the accuracy of the latest models at Skeetobite, I don't think you can get much more of a consensus than this. A little difference in latitude, but all the same general "western-GOM" motion.


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: jeangfl]
      #84388 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:40 PM

Quote:

Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?




The Bahamas are going to get lashed by what we call the "upper right quadrant" of the storm. This is where the strongest winds are located in a hurricane. The cone only points to where the "center" of the storm will pass over, but doesn't dictate what locations will be affected by the outer parts of the storm.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Current motion [Re: jeangfl]
      #84389 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:44 PM

Quote:

Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?




That is a great question.This situation is flud.Sunday we should know more about Florida.Good observation.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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conschscooter
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: Florida Keys
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84390 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:47 PM

I wish hurricanes were named after something other than humans. I find the use of personal pronouns weird (Ike is a he? When did a storm generate gonads?) and pronouns have the tendency to personalise what is already a crappy situation. 150 people weren't murdered in Haiti, they were killed by the weather. Perhaps we could name storms after say trees (acacia, buttonwood, cedar...etc...) That would depersonalise it/him. Besides, I don't much like Ike.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Current motion [Re: danielw]
      #84391 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:50 PM

The extra data should help the model forecasts in the short term. It will also help the hand analysis of the human forecasters at NHC, which is a big part of the short-term official forecasts.

Long term, the extra data probably won't help much, since the features that will eventually be affecting (or passing by) Ike are still a long ways away.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Current motion [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84392 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:55 PM

This is going to be intresting if it really holds true http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=6 does ?

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Current motion [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84393 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:15 PM

Very interesting stat from local tv met.17 tropical systems have been where Ike is now,and all have hit south Florida directly or went to our east.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Current motion [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84398 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:34 PM

Bob... Ike is not coming to your area. There is no model that shows it coming there and its almost impossible for it to move NW into a ridge. IKE is a GOM event with the Keys having a 40% chance.
The Gulfstream flight really doesnt matter much cause All the models agree on a west path across or near Cuba and into the SE Gulf somewhere. Its not like 1 or 2 models dont show this and the NHC wants that data to see which model is right. Also like Thunderbird said, its only for a short term (24-36hr) movement cause condtions change, thats why another flight is the next day.


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: scottsvb]
      #84399 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:45 PM

Yeah you can't get much more straightforward than this from the latest forecast discussion;

HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

The "central" line of the track now points almost directly at Houston, we'll see how this plays out. We should have additional recon data at 1am CDT that will tell us the more accurate strength and atmospheric conditions.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84400 - Sun Sep 07 2008 12:16 AM

That dont tell us more about its future path. Also a path to Houston is 7-9 days out.
Anyways like I said above about the Gulfstream Data going into the GFS, nothing changed..

I am shocked though on how far north Ike has been 24N and 59W and can make it sooo far west with
no trough affecting it to move N thru 10 days. ( Last Thursday-Next Sunday) at this time of year in Mid Sept almost!


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Current motion [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84401 - Sun Sep 07 2008 12:35 AM

Quote:

Very interesting stat from local tv met.17 tropical systems have been where Ike is now,and all have hit south Florida directly or went to our east.




Your local met should do a little more research. Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle.

Most near Ike's location do affect south Florida, but by no means all.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Current motion [Re: scottsvb]
      #84403 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:05 AM

Quote:

Bob... Ike is not coming to your area. There is no model that shows it coming there and its almost impossible for it to move NW into a ridge. IKE is a GOM event with the Keys having a 40% chance.
The Gulfstream flight really doesnt matter much cause All the models agree on a west path across or near Cuba and into the SE Gulf somewhere. Its not like 1 or 2 models dont show this and the NHC wants that data to see which model is right. Also like Thunderbird said, its only for a short term (24-36hr) movement cause condtions change, thats why another flight is the next day.




LOL,I hope your right,you could be a rich man if you could say that 100%.Sunday afternoon is when we will know.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84405 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:12 AM

the 0000UTC for the GFS is out now, shows the same thing as all the other models now, cutting across the gulf moving WNW and Turning N at the last second and hitting near Houston area. We'll see what the 1 am EDT update has to offer as well.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84410 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:51 AM

listen old timers look at this storm and see Donna... a similar path and point and same time of september

so hard to laugh it off... very hard to laugh this off

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_climo.html#a_topad

ill try.. hahaha

listen we are all a bit punchy and tired of loops and models are good... NHC has been good

then again they never had models or forecasts for jamaica getting hit did they? like 2 days before he went way far south

so we all watch, wait.. watch..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: SeaMule]
      #84420 - Sun Sep 07 2008 04:30 AM

http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/nwsfax.html

This is the link for the NWS's Fax Page. If you have Image Viewer, Office 2007 you shouldn't have any problems opening these files which are TIFF and PNG. I cannot say enough about the detail on these charts and if you can open the 850, 700, 500 mb charts, I want everybody to pay attention to all those numbers and letters off the coast of FL. That's NOAA and the Hurricane Hunters sampling the environment, dropsondes, etc. It is that data that added to other RAOB, PIREPS to make up these charts. Most forecasters re-analyze the data on these charts, particularly contours and change of heights over the past 12 and 24 hours, and given where Hanna was 24 hours ago, you're going to see some big changes where Hanna was tonight, particularly with heights. These charts are like the surface analysis, but they are current upper air analysis which all model data is based on. What I do is print off these charts and then compare them to previous progged positions for this time frame. That is how we know what model is performing best and any single point in time. Models are a headache!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: berrywr]
      #84421 - Sun Sep 07 2008 06:16 AM

Looking at the sats (WV), it looks to me like Ike is trending back to the south a little bit, as the dry air comes in. I wouldn't say WSW, but a little S of due west. I guess we just have to keep watching and hopefully things will start to be more consistent in the next couple of days.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot *DELETED* [Re: Terra]
      #84422 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:29 AM

Post deleted by Evan McCone

Edited by Evan McCone (Sun Sep 07 2008 09:03 AM)


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