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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Ben F.]
      #84448 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:18 AM

Quote:

There is no chance of it coming here.





If you know anything about hurricanes,that statement is very careless and wrong.It is STILL to the SE of Florida.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Unregistered User]
      #84449 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:21 AM

Quote:

They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.




Just to repost, that is not correct..
Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Ben F.]
      #84450 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:21 AM

Quote:

Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.




Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 is a perfect example.
Hurricane Charley was forecast to hit Tampa and turned NE.
I could go on and on.

A Storm in the GOM or Caribbean requires a minimum of checking the Storms status and forecast every 6 hours. Regardless of whether you are in the Cone or not.

My personal opinion and not necessarily that of the Management or Administration.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: jf]
      #84451 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:22 AM

Quote:

The NHC website has an archive section




But you can't get an active storm's past forecast track,like Ike's from last Thursday.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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HurricaneHunter
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Biloxi, Mississippi
Re: Mayor Nagan Fears IKE [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84452 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:24 AM

Even as residents who fled the city ahead of Hurricane Gustav continued to return, Mayor Ray Nagin said Saturday that it appeared the city would need to start worrying about Hurricane Ike.


Hurricane Ike grew to Category 4 strength Saturday and could head into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, putting residents along the Gulf Coast on alert less than a week after Gustav made landfall in south Louisiana.


Nagin told reporters he's worried about fast-moving Ike and about the wherewithal of residents who one week ago began leaving ahead of Gustav. Reactions of residents who've returned have ranged from relief to find their homes not flooded to frustration with the cost of evacuating and time away from home.


"Our citizens are weary and they're tired and they have spent a lot of money evacuating, some of them, from Gustav," Nagin said Saturday evening. "My expectations this time is, it will be very difficult to move the kind of numbers out of this city that we moved during Gustav."


An estimated 18,000 residents relied on government-provided buses, trains and planes to evacuate New Orleans. On Monday, when Gustav made landfall as a Category 2 storm in south Louisiana, police estimated that only 10,000 people remained in the city out of an estimated 310,000 to 340,000 residents.


Nagin's emergency preparedness director, Jerry Sneed, said the city will have buses and trains at its disposal, should it need to evacuate people. Sneed said that if anyone is reluctant to leave -- if the call comes to evacuate again -- they should remember the images of Hurricane Katrina, which included people stranded on rooftops, surrounded by floodwaters.


"If you look at being inconvenienced by a shelter or a long bus ride, you need to remember what Katrina was like," Sneed said. "Nothing can compare to that."


At this point, the city is monitoring Ike and its still-uncertain path.


Nagin said officials are faced with a "new set of challenges," including the possibility that evacuees will not be able to rely on many of the in-state shelters at their disposal for Gustav.


The mayor said officials will need to get a good assessment on the condition of the city's levee protection system and that the potential exists for phased evacuations -- or, the evacuation of certain parts of the city considered more vulnerable to a storm.


"We may have to rely upon our levee protection system this time in a way that we didn't with Gustav," he said.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84453 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:26 AM

the way it looks right now, the chance of it nailing south florida with a direct hit is preety unlikely. THINGS DO CHANGE as i have specified before. and i agree with bob, while it is se of florida anything is possible and until it gets into the gulf should we breathe easy. however it is not looking like it will effect south florida with a direct hit at the given time. just because we arent in the cone and it isnt going to be a direct hit to south florida doesnt mean we wont get effected either. if this thing wobbles more north and it passes in between the keys and cuba, then south west and south east florida will experience some preety nasty weather. strong wind gusts, squally rains etc.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: danielw]
      #84454 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:33 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.




Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 is a perfect example.
Hurricane Charley was forecast to hit Tampa and turned NE.
I could go on and on.

A Storm in the GOM or Caribbean requires a minimum of checking the Storms status and forecast every 6 hours. Regardless of whether you are in the Cone or not.

My personal opinion and not necessarily that of the Management or Administration.




I guess the question with this situation is, were these storms forecast to hit Florida? I know things can change, but the there is a HUGE difference in a storm making a freak turn and hitting Florida when it is forecast elsewhere, and the storm being forecast to hit Florida.

In other words, if Ivan and Charley were forecast to hit Florida, then that doesn't exactly meet the example that people are trying to make now when saying that Ike is still likely to go AGAINST the forecast and turn towards Florida.

Again, not saying it isn't possible, but I think there is a huge difference in what everyone is trying to make it into. This is not a 50/50 or even probably a 70/30, but more like a 90/10 chance of Ike following the path it's projected to vs. it hitting central or south Florida.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hogrunr]
      #84455 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:40 AM

From the Mobile,AL Forecast Discussion:

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF "WHAT-IF`S"
INCLUDING THE POSITION OF HERETOFORE UNPREDICTED FEATURES IN THE
WESTERLIES THAT COULD STEER THE STORM DIFFERENTLY THAN WHAT WAS
THOUGHT OR CALCULATED...OR WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE DRY AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST WERE INGESTED INTO IKE.

IT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
ANYONE CAN SAY WITH MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE WHERE THIS TRACK WILL BE.
ONE MUST RECALL THAT THE ERROR CIRCLES (CONE OF UNCERTAINTY)
REPRESENTS A 2/3 CONFIDENCE WHICH IS A RUNNING AVERAGE OVER THE LAST
FIVE YEARS. THAT UNCERTAINTY IS THE REASON WHY IT IS IMPORTANT THAT
ALL INTERESTS CONSTANTLY STAY POSTED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THIS
HURRICANE. 77/BD

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=MOB&date=2008-09-07%2009:31:17


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jf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: danielw]
      #84457 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:43 AM

If the NHC predication of a westerly move for IKE is accurate should that be plotted from the recent wobble of IKE ?

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Loxgal
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84458 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:46 AM

Bob,
Check the archives...Then in the archive section at the top in blue there is another link for Graphics archive. Then you can pick the graphic you want. I found the 3 and 5 day cone history. It plays a loop but you can stop it, etc.

Betsy

--------------------
-------
K4RPI
Skywarn
KFLLOXAH6
Weather station on Wunderground
Survived:
Andrew, Francis, Jeanne, Wilma


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: danielw]
      #84459 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:47 AM

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071430.shtml

Key West Hurricane Local Statement:
......PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KKEY.shtml


Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 07 2008 10:52 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Loxgal]
      #84467 - Sun Sep 07 2008 11:11 AM

3 Day forecast for 11 AM Friday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/AL092008_3NLW_018_0.GIF

3 day Forecast for 11 AM Sunday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/AL092008_3NLW_026_0.GIF


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Mayor Nagan Fears IKE [Re: HurricaneHunter]
      #84468 - Sun Sep 07 2008 11:19 AM

Quote:



Nagin said officials are faced with a "new set of challenges," including the possibility that evacuees will not be able to rely on many of the in-state shelters at their disposal for Gustav.


The mayor said officials will need to get a good assessment on the condition of the city's levee protection system and that the potential exists for phased evacuations -- or, the evacuation of certain parts of the city considered more vulnerable to a storm.


"We may have to rely upon our levee protection system this time in a way that we didn't with Gustav," he said.




Thank you. I was looking for this.

There is no shelter from BR to Houma. 80 Iron men from BR to NO have been knocked down. And a guy from WDSU(Ch 361 DirectTV) showed film of the concrete
wall, the Industrial Canal. It was battered. There were holes. The levees can't take a strong TS right now.

Edited by mcgowanmc (Sun Sep 07 2008 11:20 AM)


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: danielw]
      #84469 - Sun Sep 07 2008 11:20 AM

the 3 day from fri to sunday are preety accurate as far as time frame, but thats a huge jump to the south. thanks for those posts daniel.

also note, only 3 models are pointing to a panhandle scenario now. 1 of which of the 3 doesnt even have a landfall plot yet.

Edited by Evan McCone (Sun Sep 07 2008 11:22 AM)


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84472 - Sun Sep 07 2008 11:40 AM

Quote:

now you are tapping a entirely different realm. i cant buy into that hype. refineries and gas stations have reserves as well as the state. just like any other state, in the event that a storm is projected and or hits their main supplier, they either go to their secondary supplier or tap off their reserve. maybe our gas prices will go up a bit but thats about all. as it is most areas in palm beach county where i live are 20 cents above national average anyway so it doesnt phase me.




But now you're into my forte. You can go to theoildrum.com.

The experts I rely on: WestTexas, Khebab, Ace, Gailthe Actuary.
Mexico has dropped it's exports to the US by 30% over last year.
Just in the last week 1 million bpd have not been produced in the GOM.

Even if we don't get another hurricane, MOL is here now. And don't even rely on the NYMEX as a predictor.
Port Fourchon/the LOOP won't be up for at least another week and crude is down?

And oyu think those crews are going to be put back iinto the GOM with a CAT 3 on the way?

And a BTW-there's not enough gasoline for another Evac of NO.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84474 - Sun Sep 07 2008 11:55 AM

personally i think we should keep our eyes on where the storm is going and what it is going to do before we start to worry about the pre storm and after storm effects of what ike is going to do to the oil industry. even still we should keep this forum page to just what the storm is doing and what it is going to do.

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84476 - Sun Sep 07 2008 12:01 PM

Sure you can Bob. If you click on the Archive section then click on maps it'll play the tracks out for you in loop. you can slow the play speed down or make it go faster. There's also a stop button I believe which will let you sort of "freeze frame" it.

If you can't slow it down enough, you could always go back through the Archives for the Public Advisories and/or Discussions which always give the coordinates in them as well and compare that way.


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willa
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: pcola]
      #84478 - Sun Sep 07 2008 12:09 PM

Quote:

Quote:

They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.




Just to repost, that is not correct..
Kate's path was directly over where Ike is now and she hit the panhandle. Baker was almost exactly on Ike's current point and made landfall in Alabama. Storm #597 (1933) was directly over Ike's location and made landfall in S. Texas. Frederic was within about 40 miles of Ike's position and made landfall in Mobile. Eloise was close to Ike's position and hit the panhandle




I should of been clear.. any category 3,4,5 hurricanes...

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_climo.gif
Actually just 2.


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RCinNOLA
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84483 - Sun Sep 07 2008 12:44 PM

While I normally just lurk here for the great info. on hurricanes, I must reply to your incorrect statements as a resident of NOLA and south Louisiana.

Port Fourchon reopened to some traffic Friday, LOOP started offloading Friday as well.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/5985161.html

There is plenty of gasoline in in the New Orleans area, as soon as they started opening Wed. and Thursday, most
had plentiful supplies throughout the area. Most residents filled there tanks up upon return, so i would say there is more than enough for another evacuation.
We are keeping a very close eye on Ike, but now is not the time to panic.


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RCinNOLA
Unregistered




Re: Mayor Nagan Fears IKE [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84484 - Sun Sep 07 2008 12:53 PM

Quote:

There is no shelter from BR to Houma. 80 Iron men from BR to NO have been knocked down. And a guy from WDSU(Ch 361 DirectTV) showed film of the concrete
wall, the Industrial Canal. It was battered. There were holes. The levees can't take a strong TS right now.




This is incorrect as well, the wall shown was a Port facility wall, not part of the flood protection. The industrial canal walls had waves splashing over, there was minor erosion near a few R/R gate, but not much else. The New Orleans area is in good shape, the Grand Isle levee and one near Lafitte were breached, but not in the metro New Orleans area.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/09/corps_cites_areas_needing_quic.html

While we would prefer not to have another storm come this way, to say they cannot take a strong TS is both incorrect and could induce a panic which is unjustified.


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