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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: danielw]
      #84489 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:47 PM

Personally, I believe anything beyond 48 hours right now is a crap shoot. About all I think can be said with a standard deviation of confidence is that Ike will soon ht Cuba and then later will emerge somewhere in the GOM. I seriously question any models ability to accurately forecast how Ike will be affected by its time over Cuba, where it will come out and what kind of condition it will be in. I can easily see how Ike could end up on the south side of Cuba, head for the Yucatan and then head west toward somewhere between Corpus and Brownsville. Where when and how Ike emerges as it departs Cuba will be key.

At the 120 hr point the models are quite divergent, forecasting landfall from somewhere near Corpus to as far east as Apalachicola. Being just 12 miles inland south of Houston I will be watching every move carefully. But at this time it is way too early to get excited about a particular landfall possibility.


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scottsvb
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: EBinTX]
      #84491 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:54 PM

The only models everyone really needs to look at is the GFDL and the GFS, thats is unless 1 of them is a outlier.The ECMWF isn't bad but just generally gives us a idea of AROUND where a system might be. Rest of the models are not too liable. Sometimes a model, like the UKmet does well, but only if it is inline with the GFDL and GFS. So in summary, GFS-GFDL rest dont even bother looking at or you will start assuming possibilities that just wont come true.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84492 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:57 PM

By my rough calculation Ike would be about 5 or 6 days away from any potential landfall in Louisiana and at least a week from the Houston area. With that in mind, I think that Evan is correct and we should focus on the storm itself in this thread. 'Impact' concerns will be better suited for the Disaster Forum at a later time.

Someone noted that it was not only important to watch the 'cone', but also how the cone shifts over time...and that was good advice. The larger 5-day cone still covers a huge area which suggests continued uncertainty in the track beyond 3 days. Probably adding to that uncertainty is the notion that Ike is expected to grow in size after it gets into the Gulf.

While I'm at it, I'll also add that there has been some excellent dialogue in the Lounge over the past couple of days with the posting of some worthwhile information and data links.
Thanks,
ED


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: danielw]
      #84498 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:23 PM

"Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location."

Yeah..rule of thumb by my mother and older relatives.. until it's west of you or north of you... pay attention.

NHC doing an incredible job this year or I'd be really terrified with that big storm down there. Seriously, they have done a great job but as someone here said...things change

so ... him moving slowly doesn't thrill me even though the models are insistent

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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jf
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: LoisCane]
      #84502 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:38 PM

The storm has taken made a shift to the NW. Do any of you see the turn?

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: jf]
      #84503 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:43 PM

yeah i'm seeing the same thing more like a w/nw track now lets see how this plays out. If ike make landfall in cuba and stays in the north side of the island things are going to get intresting !

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hogrunr
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84504 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:48 PM

I see about three or four frames of the animation that look like that kind of turn and then the last two frames take it back to the W or WSW, so lets see over the next hour or so what overall track it takes, it is easy for the system to wobble sometimes, so we'll have to see if that's all it is or not.

It's actually right at the latitude that the track has it changing to due west, so it's pretty close to expected now.

Edited by hogrunr (Sun Sep 07 2008 07:51 PM)


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Evan Johnson
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hogrunr]
      #84505 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:07 PM

on goes, i notice a clear shift of the eye to the NW. i have studied the past 60 images for reliability. plotting it there was a jog to the nw. whether this is perminent, or just a slight movement i am not sure i will continue to study the loops and get back to everyone.

studying everything further, at 13:15 utc the center of circulation was placed at 21.04N 73.41W off of the west coast Great Inagua Island. presently (19:15 utc) the center of circulation is at 21.08N 74.17W. correction WNW maybe. anyone else taking a look at this?

Edited by Evan McCone (Sun Sep 07 2008 08:17 PM)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84507 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:15 PM

I would give it alittle more time to see if this is in fact a seriouse move more to the north. But other then that i do see this as a motion more to the w/nw.

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hogrunr
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84508 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:17 PM

Yes, I can see that it would be at a slightly more northern position, however the 19:10-19:55 UTC images seem like it leveled out to a due west movement, I don't know yet which one is going to be the over all trend (west or NW), so we'll have to see if it goes west far enough to get over cuba or if it runs up the northern coast.

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Evan Johnson
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hogrunr]
      #84510 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:22 PM

given the most recent wind steering current product, i find this slight move facinating, considering the wind current steering product shows a steady push to the south.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF


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jf
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84511 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:27 PM

This appears to be a clear shift in the movement of IKE to the NW. On the current track it would be just off the northern coast of Cuba by about 60-80 miles at its closest point to Cuba as it heads to the Florida Straits. There must have been a weakness in the ridge to the north.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: jf]
      #84512 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:31 PM

If this is really a trend now then i will really have to say that the ridge to the north is weakening right about now.

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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hogrunr]
      #84513 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:33 PM

There's certainly a jog north. The visible sat shows it moved from about 21.0 °N at 15:15 to about 21..2 °N at 19:45. Cuban radar shows the eye well and position is about 21.2 °N at 19:30. The last discussion forecast movement from 21.0 N at 15:00Z to 20.9 at 00 Z. We'll need to wait and see if this is a rel move or just a temporary jog. For anyone interested the Cuban station at Hologuin is showing a nice image.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: EBinTX]
      #84514 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:42 PM

Quote:

There's certainly a jog north. The visible sat shows it moved from about 21.0 °N at 15:15 to about 21..2 °N at 19:45. Cuban radar shows the eye well and position is about 21.2 °N at 19:30. The last discussion forecast movement from 21.0 N at 15:00Z to 20.9 at 00 Z. We'll need to wait and see if this is a rel move or just a temporary jog. For anyone interested the Cuban station at Hologuin is showing a nice image.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES




We're running a long term cuban radar recording http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?52 there too, I don't think it would be northwest. It's a good set up for the general wobble wars though. I'm thinking its going to move more west than anything and not really veer too much one way or the other.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: EBinTX]
      #84515 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:42 PM

The last images at the NASA site HERE support the continued due west movement after that slight jog north, we should know by the end of the hour if this holds up.

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willa
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: hogrunr]
      #84516 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:45 PM

New 5pm is out. NHC sticking to their guns

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HurricaneHunter
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Re: My long term perdictions for IKE [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84521 - Sun Sep 07 2008 09:07 PM


As for Ike in the short term and all models now agree it will move into the Gulf of Mexico passing over or just north of Cuba coastline. Once it make it to the GOM a shortwave trough moving over the eastern US is expected to create a weakness to the North of Ike resulting in a turn to the WNW or NW with a decrease in forward speed. This shortwave trough is the critical player in Ike's Eventual Track at the Extended ranges. Dynamical Models are still split into two camps, but the NOGAPS run now shows a head on to New Orleans, LA as a CAT 3 or 4.

As for my perdictions its a little too soon to pin point a hit for Ike. But I will say that people living anywhere between Morgan City, LA and Mobile AL will see IKE making landfall somewhere in their region.

BELOW IS A LINK TO THE NOGAPS MODEL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/js_anim_no_amer_slp_wind.html

http://www.hurricanecity.net
http://www.hurricanecity.org



Edited by HurricaneHunter (Sun Sep 07 2008 09:45 PM)


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fevernomics
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: willa]
      #84522 - Sun Sep 07 2008 09:08 PM

Quote:

New 5pm is out. NHC sticking to their guns




the track is updated on the 2's and 8's advisories... so they are not neccessarily sticking by their guns, just not a cone update on the 5's


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willa
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: fevernomics]
      #84526 - Sun Sep 07 2008 09:15 PM

Quote:

Quote:

New 5pm is out. NHC sticking to their guns




the track is updated on the 2's and 8's advisories... so they are not neccessarily sticking by their guns, just not a cone update on the 5's


Actually you're wrong unfortunately. It's updated every 6 hours.

5pm 11pm 5am and 11am


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