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#98L continues pushing inland Deep S. TX. Heavy, banding precip with gusts to Trop Storm force along the S. TX coast currently underway.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 350 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1404 (Michael) Major: 1404 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE [Re: HurricaneHunter]
      #84528 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:21 PM

very logical thinking

everyone likes to throw out the NOGAPS but its here for a reason

either way if he does move wnw starting at 11... that would be a good day earlier

watching his forward movement

discussion alluded to his movement being at 12 yet they wrote the forecast at 14

little things like this bother me a lot

weaker bm but dropsonde didn't hit it or it's not there?

too many inconsistencies

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE [Re: LoisCane]
      #84529 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:27 PM

another tool for wobble wars is the Microwave Imagery found here

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Wobble Wars! [Re: MikeC]
      #84531 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:36 PM

wobble wars ...

looks like less of a movement on the microwave animation but still a movement. goes shows more of a movment. not sure why that is, however we will just have to keep our eyes on it however tired of ike they are.


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HurricaneHunter
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Biloxi, Mississippi
Re: Wobble Wars! [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84534 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:49 PM

Take a another LOOK at Cuba Radar, it appears to be moving near WEST.

Visit my websites:

www.hurricanecity.net
www.hurricanecity.org





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gatorman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc:
Re: Wobble Wars! [Re: HurricaneHunter]
      #84536 - Sun Sep 07 2008 06:02 PM

just wondering, AEMN, NGPS, CLP5, and HWRF, have pretty much stuck to a more north then north east curve, like most earlier thought Ike would go. are these dependable models? i know most times everyone says you cant really forcast a hurricane till it passes over, or has some sort of interaction with Cuba, seems hurricanes have done weird things after land interaction, is this the same with Ike? i need to give notice to NHC, with Gustav they were right on, a long way off, they nailed it. i didnt think they had a clue last time but they were right on!! respect given,, just hope they are wrong this time!!! anyways about the modeling,, is it kind of a toss up until it gets past cuba??

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eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE [Re: MikeC]
      #84543 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:30 PM

Quote:

another tool for wobble wars is the Microwave Imagery found here




Looking at the Microwave Imagery at the site you provided, there is a wobble if not a trend to the NW.

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE [Re: eulogia]
      #84546 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:39 PM

Just to clarify, it's pretty much on the track, still moving due west and recon verfies that as well. I think the NHC's path is going to right on for the next 12 hours or so.

Indeed it looks like Florida is going to miss the worst of it, (Keys will see some effects as it will get pretty close), but the cone at large is off of Florida for good reason I think. Points west, Louisiana or Texas still the most likely, but a good way to go to determine that. Mexico isn't out of the question either. Points east will still want to watch closely until Ike clears Cuba, though. But it's important to note that those places are a lot less likely to see anything.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE [Re: MikeC]
      #84547 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:46 PM

There was only a 2 hr jog wnw then it went back to a due west motion. A west motion with a few jogs WNW will continue tonight with a bend to the WNW later on Monday.
It's too far out to make a forecast for landfall, but right now we know it wont hit S. Florida or the west coast of Florida. If I had to make a guess, it would be from Ne TX-central LA.

Edited by scottsvb (Sun Sep 07 2008 07:49 PM)


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: MikeC]
      #84548 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:51 PM

Looks like the Master, MikeC, is indeed correct - holding 21.1 - 21.2 ° through 23:30Z by Cuban radar -- steady west. Landfall near Banes in Holguin Province in about two hours.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: EBinTX]
      #84549 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:55 PM

This is going to be an interesting call for NO. Both the GFDL and GFS ultimately go west of there, but not before going making a pretty direct line and then going west just before they do.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Orlando
Re: My long term perdictions for IKE [Re: MikeC]
      #84550 - Sun Sep 07 2008 07:55 PM

Agreed with the Westward track.

Here is a 12 hour high resolution loop, as of 2350z 07sept2008, starting just before Ike hits Inagua. It bobbles North and South just a bit, but the general motion is still due West.
Note: If you do not have a very high speed connection, do not try this link. Lower end xDSL probably cannot handle it. It is almost 400Mb.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_east_full+/12h/+-noauto

I have to wonder what is left standing on Inagua.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: why this is a possible problem [Re: watchinout]
      #84554 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:30 PM

eye has gotten very small

i think the eye wall replacement cycle they were talking about finished

really think it's stronger now than 5

from visible and others

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/jsl.jpg

really small eye..

about to hit cuba

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Ed in Va]
      #84555 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:32 PM

While I honestly believe all bets are off until Ike clears Cuba, looking at the 18Z runs of GFDL, GFS and HWRF and the 12Z on NGP all appear to have converged on landfall in SW LA between the TX border and the Delta, very near where Gustav came ashore. Even the Canadian model is in agreement.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: EBinTX]
      #84577 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:50 AM

Some of the models have shifted east from the earlier runs. And I probably expect for them to probably continue that trend for now in my opinion. This is why i say this check out the trough location in about 2 days? it makes sense to me ! http://www.accuweather.com/maps-surface....c&fday=48hr Were probably going to have a stronger trough then earlier forcast as it shows digging south.

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HurricaneHunter
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Biloxi, Mississippi
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84582 - Mon Sep 08 2008 05:40 AM

I disagree with the NCH after 72 hours with their forecast. I feel that the sharp short wave through moving across the plains will pick IKE up and move it north then northeast. The GFS and GFDL have been doing very well with IKE, why would they just throw the data out the window.

I'm still sticking to my guns and say IKE will move inland from Morgan City, LA to Mobile, AL as a strong CAT 2.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W_sm2+gif/025730W_sm.gif






(It is CFHC policy not to flame individuals or agencies and to recommend that site visitors always follow the advice of the NHC. You can state why you disagree with something, but a bend in a model track is hardly a good reason.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 08 2008 09:34 AM)


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: HurricaneHunter]
      #84583 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:19 AM

Ike appears to be loosing a lot of strength over Cuba. The track overnight has been steadily westward at about 21.1 (+/-0.1) °. If that holds for another 7-8 hours Ike would emerge over the warm Caribbean waters on the south side. That could get interesting - same place where Gustav gained strength. If, however, the forecast track holds, Ike may degrade severely and have insufficient organization to become much of anything in the Gulf. Until it's emerges from Cuba I still believe it remain very undecided.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: EBinTX]
      #84586 - Mon Sep 08 2008 08:14 AM

I think the NHC made themselves very clear in their last forecast discussion on their reasoning behind their forecast...the GFS is the only model according to them that shows any kind of short wave trough moving across the US in the next couple of days. They said since the GFDL and HWRF use the GFS to get their boundary conditions, they may be picking up on this and not truly modeling that situation on their own accord. Until multiple models show this short wave trough, they won't shift their model, and actually the majority of the models in that last spaghetti model that was posted still point towards Houston, only about 4 of them point towards LA.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84588 - Mon Sep 08 2008 09:14 AM

The latest satellite imagery shows Ike has a NW jog (more like a wobble) in his motion, but is still more of a WNW motion and his eye is about to emerge over the southern coast of Cuba, we'll see if he makes it all the way off before he finishes his turn to the NW. He is definitely looking weakened, but not destroyed.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84589 - Mon Sep 08 2008 09:33 AM

It looks like Ike is heading due West or very slightly North of West which is about to bring the CoC out over water just South of the Cuban coast. We'll see soon if that shortwave trough that the GFS has picked up is real or just a temporary anomaly. At any rate, things won't begin to gel until Ike is in the Gulf.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: MichaelA]
      #84591 - Mon Sep 08 2008 09:53 AM

good morning...

latest wind steering product.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF


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