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Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84592 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:01 AM

Quote:

I think the NHC made themselves very clear in their last forecast discussion on their reasoning behind their forecast...the GFS is the only model according to them that shows any kind of short wave trough moving across the US in the next couple of days. They said since the GFDL and HWRF use the GFS to get their boundary conditions, they may be picking up on this and not truly modeling that situation on their own accord. Until multiple models show this short wave trough, they won't shift their model, and actually the majority of the models in that last spaghetti model that was posted still point towards Houston, only about 4 of them point towards LA.




But those 4 are the Big Dogs of the season so far.

And Ike will not follow Gustav's track. Therefore Ike will go in East of Gustav.

Frederic 1979 or Elena 1985.

As the SciGuy, Houston Chronicle points out:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

Ike will now miss both Mountain Ranges in Cuba.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84593 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:08 AM

Quote:

Quote:

I think the NHC made themselves very clear in their last forecast discussion on their reasoning behind their forecast...the GFS is the only model according to them that shows any kind of short wave trough moving across the US in the next couple of days. They said since the GFDL and HWRF use the GFS to get their boundary conditions, they may be picking up on this and not truly modeling that situation on their own accord. Until multiple models show this short wave trough, they won't shift their model, and actually the majority of the models in that last spaghetti model that was posted still point towards Houston, only about 4 of them point towards LA.




But those 4 are the Big Dogs of the season so far.

And Ike will not follow Gustav's track. Therefore Ike will go in East of Gustav.

Frederic 1979 or Elena 1985.

As the SciGuy, Houston Chronicle points out:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

Ike will now miss both Mountain Ranges in Cuba.




and 2 of the 4 are based off of a third out of that 4 and is the only one that shows that ridge so far...as far as Ike not following Gus's tracks, that is purely "rule of thumb" or conjecture, if the winds steer it that way, it's not going to just magically avoid it because there that path "has already been used" this season.

If the theory of one Hurricane avoiding the earlier path of another is true, then Ike going West of Gus's tracks is just as much of a possibility as him going East of it.

The latest IR data shows Ike has taken his due NW turn...he is now skirting the southern coast of Cuba, while still on shore, he may go temporarily off shore and then back on over the next couple of hours.

Edited by hogrunr (Mon Sep 08 2008 10:15 AM)


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84595 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:40 AM

Quote:

...and 2 of the 4 are based off of a third out of that 4 and is the only one that shows that ridge so far...as far as Ike not following Gus's tracks, that is purely "rule of thumb" or conjecture, if the winds steer it that way, it's not going to just magically avoid it because there that path "has already been used" this season.

If the theory of one Hurricane avoiding the earlier path of another is true, then Ike going West of Gus's tracks is just as much of a possibility as him going East of it.

The latest IR data shows Ike has taken his due NW turn...he is now skirting the southern coast of Cuba, while still on shore, he may go temporarily off shore and then back on over the next couple of hours.




That's right, it won't be magic. Think of it as turbulence, like behind a tractor/trailer. AAMOF watch Gustav's "track" erupt in rain
as Ike nears it. And, yes cutting across Gustav is very reasonable, except the 4 Models have Ike veering into LA. And, again, Ike won't cross Gustav and then veer into Lake Charles. The turn will come after Ike crosses Fay's track and before it reaches Gustav's.

Ike has already moved out of the NHC's 800 Advisory by continuing West. Just beginning to come out into the Caribbean. It should turn w/in hours.

IMHO. Ike should be turning as it gets into water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Go Hogs!


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84597 - Mon Sep 08 2008 11:45 AM

The 11am EDT edition is out...from the forecast discussion:

DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE
SHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH...AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

Just wanted to add in as well that Ike's eye is now back over water.

Edited by hogrunr (Mon Sep 08 2008 12:06 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84598 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:08 PM

It wouldnt surprise me if IKE makes its landfall in SE TX just near Corpus Christi by Saturday morning! That's not my forecast but it wouldnt surprise me. Everything keeps shifting west and these troughs are July type having little- no impact on anything under 25dgN.

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Neverwinter
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: PA
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: scottsvb]
      #84599 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:11 PM

And it moves NW. Maybe, just maybe it will hit TX. It's too early to tell though...

--------------------
Hurricane Ike


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Neverwinter]
      #84600 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:17 PM

I dont have a landfall location as of right now its pretty hard to say. But if i was to put a landfall location i will put it from new orleans right along somewhere in the gulf east coast !

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Neverwinter]
      #84601 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:17 PM

Just back in checking on things - Monroe County ended the evac order as of noon today - sorry if this has been posted elsewhere ... http://www.monroecounty-fl.gov/Pages/MonroeCoFL_EmerNews/S020FFDD3

it's been a long night.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84602 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:21 PM

Quote:

I dont have a landfall location as of right now its pretty hard to say. But if i was to put a landfall location i will put it from new orleans right along somewhere in the gulf east coast !




I know you are just projecting, but this is basically ignoring everything that the NHC is saying, especially from the last update from them.

Now to wait for the 1pm EDT update and the 12Z model updates.

Also, Ike has grown in size quite considerably. He's gone from 45 mile Hurricane force and 150 mile TS force, to 60 mile hurricane force and 200 mile TS force.

Edited by hogrunr (Mon Sep 08 2008 12:22 PM)


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84604 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:54 PM

Quote:

Quote:


Also, Ike has grown in size quite considerably. He's gone from 45 mile Hurricane force and 150 mile TS force, to 60 mile hurricane force and 200 mile TS force.




Several days ago, one of the models predicted Ike would increase substantially in size. Anyone remember which one it was?


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Bev]
      #84605 - Mon Sep 08 2008 01:06 PM

IKE's core lost some structure while over the island and that will expand the wind field. IKE is off shore now about 21.2 and 78.9 No more land until he crosses western Cuba. The microwave loop on the main page took IKE from 110kts to 80kts while traversing the island. Land interaction will keep too much re-intensification from occurring. Nothing ahead of it yet to cause a more northerly slide in the track. Not slowing down so there is still a good stream of air pushing him along.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Mon Sep 08 2008 01:07 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: doug]
      #84606 - Mon Sep 08 2008 01:11 PM

New GFS shows a significant shift to the south. Now much more Brownsville than Gal/Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Bev]
      #84609 - Mon Sep 08 2008 01:34 PM

The global models (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) for several days have consistently forecast Ike to grow considerably in size once it reaches the Gulf, though they have disagreed with themselves and each other on the track. Whether or not it becomes a large and intense hurricane, or simply a large cyclone that is not particularly intense, will depend in part on what kind of shape it is in upon reaching the Gulf.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84616 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:21 PM

Looks like GFS is abandoning it's earlier solution and is trending west - UKMET also with NHC following suit. The shortwave tough that everyone has been posting about looks like it will be long gone by the time Ike could be influenced by it.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Ike Could Grow In Size [Re: Bev]
      #84617 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:30 PM

It was the GFS - and Dr Avila commented on this in the Saturday 11PM Discussion bulletin from NHC:

"HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO."

Cheers,
ED


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Ed in Va]
      #84618 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:49 PM

Quote:

New GFS shows a significant shift to the south. Now much more Brownsville than Gal/Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation




The GFDL and HWRF models both have it going to Houston/Gal with their 12Z runs. The past 24 hours has really narrowed down the strike zone towards West LA/Texas Coast from pretty much the entire gulf coast like it had been, I'd say the next 24 hours will give us more of a consensus between the Houston/Gal area vs. the brownsville area. I'll be waiting


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: craigm]
      #84619 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:51 PM

The models still disagree on their individual tracks, but there seems to be good agreement on the general scenario of Ike taking a "stair-step" path into the Gulf and eventually into the western Gulf Coast. Ike is currently moving west, but should turn more to the NW tonight and tomorrow as a shortwave slightly weakens the ridge to the north. When that shortwave moves away, the ridge will build back and Ike should turn back to the west. Finally, another trough approaching the central and southern Plains in 4-5 days should weaken the ridge again, causing another (and presumably final) turn to the NW and N.

If that scenario holds, that will mean at least 2 and maybe 3 changes in direction for Ike before final landfall, which obviously makes the track forecast complicated and uncertain. The 12Z GFS eventually tracks Ike into the south TX coast before it gets pulled to the north, while the 12Z GFDL and HWRF turn Ike to the NW over the Gulf before reaching the coast, resulting in landfall on the upper TX coast. The 12Z ECMWF is in between with landfall over the middle TX coast.

It looks like conditions will be very favorable for intensification over the Gulf, but Ike seems to have lost its inner core and currently seems to be more of a very large tropical storm than a hurricane right now. It will need to re-establish its inner core to take advantage of conditions over the Gulf. Ike's state of organization when it approaches the loop current in the south central Gulf will be crucial in determining how strong it will get.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84623 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:14 PM

It is interesting to see how much of a consensus there is within the two different tracking groups right now.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF are all aiming straight at Houston, whereas the NGFDL, UKMET, and GFS have Ike aimed straight at Corpus Christi.

The interesting thing is, the three models aimed further south, I believe, took this route due to Ikes current Westerly jog instead of the originally forecasted NW movement by now. However, if you look at the GFDL, and HWRF models on this site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

They had predicted this Westerly jog with their current track.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84624 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:16 PM

Looks like Ike is trying to make a comback if he manages to all, or most, of his center over water:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike Could Grow In Size [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #84625 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:18 PM

I've been watching both Cuban radar and various sat loops on and off through the day. It appears that Ike is still tracking due west along 21.2 °. From both radar, and the visible and water vapor sat loops it sure looks like Ike has lost most of its density, and the rain bands have certainly lost intensity through the day. The IR loop appears very broken. It looks like there is still good circulation, but nowhere near as much within the storm. I would think a lot of energy has been lost.

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