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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84679 - Tue Sep 09 2008 12:58 PM

The South Florida Water Management District has a great summary of the models that includes NOGPS, HWRF and the GFS Ensemble (AEMN). From that view it looks like NHC is about middle of the envelope. The one that concerns me is UKMet - by NHC's acknowledgement it "can be quite skillful".

http://tinyurl.com/5qd7on

Edited by EBinTX (Tue Sep 09 2008 12:58 PM)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: EBinTX]
      #84681 - Tue Sep 09 2008 01:31 PM

It's interesting you said that because so far actuallly UKMET has been the most accurate one on Ike. It is the only one that had him originally dipping down so far south of Cuba and is the original one to pick this more southern route that the track is on right now. Alot of times it seems like it picks up on things that others don't at an earlier time.

Also, last night the NHC said that no Global models had picked up on the ridge coming down from the US over days 3-5 so they weren't paying attention to the Regional model that still had it in play. Well now, the UKMET ( a global model) has picked up on it, so we'll see if the pattern holds with the UKMET picking up on the features earlier than others.


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scottsvb
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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84684 - Tue Sep 09 2008 02:33 PM

The Ukmet will adjust with the rest of the models as IKE will move towards S TX. Houston wont get anything but maybe a band come up.Its too early to say forsure though. Its still 3-4 days from TX-MX!

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Thunderbird12
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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: scottsvb]
      #84685 - Tue Sep 09 2008 02:43 PM

I would not be surprised to see the model consensus bounce back to the north a little bit. Of the global models, the GFS and NOGAPS show little or no interaction with the approaching trough in 3-4 days, while the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models do show some interaction, causing a somewhat further north track. The ECMWF is the best model overall, so I would hesitate to pick against it if it came to that. We'll see if there is any better model consensus among the global models today.

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84688 - Tue Sep 09 2008 03:31 PM

The usual suspects are flipping to the North.

Watch GFDL flip in the next update.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84689 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:01 PM

Some reasoning from the most recent NHC forecast discussion:

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


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Neverwinter
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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84690 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:07 PM

It is indeed moving through the West. Don't you think it will be nice if we have a debate or poll about what or where it will make it's landfall?

edit- Not here. Not ever. Especially at 5 days out. Things will change... just watch~danielw

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 09 2008 04:39 PM)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Neverwinter]
      #84691 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:21 PM

Only if we have the ability to change our vote as many times as the NHC can

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84701 - Tue Sep 09 2008 06:07 PM

As someone suggested, the GFDL track has indeed shifted north http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
On the other hand, how much faith can you place in a model that has Ike at hurricane strength over MO in 168 hours?
Gonna come as a real shock when the Hurricane Watch is posted there!

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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hogrunr
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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Ed in Va]
      #84702 - Tue Sep 09 2008 06:14 PM

Well there are two different aspects to the models...the NHC seems to keep the intensity aspect and the track aspect as two seperate beasts. So alot of times they will take the track forecast from some and completely ignore it's intensity forecast.

The 12Z models are out for all models at that FSU link posted above, they all have a shift northward, so all of the major models are at or north of Corpus Christi now.

As wide as this storm currently is, it will still have great affects to Houston/ Galveston even if it doesn't take a direct hit.

Edited by hogrunr (Tue Sep 09 2008 06:16 PM)


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Raymond
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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Ed in Va]
      #84703 - Tue Sep 09 2008 06:14 PM

Now all the modells (12:00 UTC runs of GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET, CMC) show the northward turn during day 4 and move Ike to the middle of the Texas coast, somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. They all pick up the solution already provied by the ECMWF at 0:00 UTC. So there is really a very good agreement between the dynamical modells on this track.

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hogrunr
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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Raymond]
      #84705 - Tue Sep 09 2008 07:22 PM

Ike's eye is just starting to emerge over the GOM and he's in pretty good shape for having just spent so much time bouncing off of Cuba. He is also moving faster than the NHC has predicted so far. He is going to be arriving at his next tracking point a couple of hours early. We will probably see a decent amount of strengthening by tonight at the 11pm EDT update and certainly by tomorrow morning. He seems to still be on track.

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mark0209
Unregistered




Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84707 - Tue Sep 09 2008 07:32 PM

I live on the Tx and LA border, what chances do you think we will get hit?

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: mark0209]
      #84708 - Tue Sep 09 2008 07:47 PM

well we can see from the recent huge swings that nothing is out of the question yet. It was pointed right at Houston, then Brownsville, now back up to Corpus/Houston area...while you are probably more likely to get the after affects than the direct hit, it would be smart to keep waatching.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84714 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:13 PM

The 5pm EDT update is out

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.


So they have shifted the landfall point very close to San Antonio Bay, or close to Port Lavaca, and according to the forecast this is conservative compared to the rest of the models. Basically they are following the ECMWF model exactly now, since it has been accurate so far on Ike.

There are also extremely favorable winds and atleast 3 warm eddies that he is supposed to pass near or through on his current track. The GFDL and HWRF intensity models have Ike reaching cat4 by landfall. His speed has slowed to 10mph, the speed over the next 48 hours is very important to the forecast track. In other words, the slower Ike goes, the further away from shore he will turn North.

Edited by hogrunr (Tue Sep 09 2008 09:23 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84716 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:40 PM

Ike did rather well going over cuba twice... the small inner core still together... the surface and mid-upp level centers didn't get misplaced that much...i think that has a lot to do with how big Ike is... which to me is a negative factor now... i think ike will make a run up to Cat 4 and or maybe 5 here in the next day or so... hitting the loop current in hours ahead... i also think now that the storms projected landfall will slowly move east and north with time. Will need some good G-IV data in the models to pick out a landfall point.. There seems to be a good chance that Ike could make landfall as a major Hurricane.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #84718 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:39 PM

It is possible that we could see rather rapid re-intensification. The system looks like it is in very good shape with good outflow and an intact inner core. I suppose explosive re-instensification is not out of the realm of possibility.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #84721 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:55 PM

Quote:

It is possible that we could see rather rapid re-intensification. The system looks like it is in very good shape with good outflow and an intact inner core. I suppose explosive re-instensification is not out of the realm of possibility.




I definitely agree...the key to me was how low his pressure stayed (968) even with him only being a cat 1.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Loc: Oklahoma
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84724 - Tue Sep 09 2008 11:34 PM

The inner core is still there, but it is not in good shape at the moment. The convection is weak and recon shows the winds in the inner core are actually weaker than the winds further removed from the center in an outer wind maximum. In its present state of organization, it is not likely to rapidly intensify. It may rapidly intensify at some point in the future, but there could be a rather slow period of reorganization first before it is able to take advantage of the favorable environment in the Gulf.

There is some very dry air apparent on the water vapor image over the central Gulf, but the size of Ike's circulation should keep the interior of the storm relatively insulated from it.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84726 - Wed Sep 10 2008 12:44 AM

Ike's moved a bit further north (wobble perhaps?) than the earlier forecast track, which probably means a shift toward northern Texas later, but we'll see. Watching the wobbles isn't really important for huge changes, but it does impact the landfall point.

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