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Recon flying both PTC2 (former 94L) and 95L again today, Thursday. Hurricane Watch for Nicaragua/Coasta Rica border region.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 289 (Nicholas) , Major: 305 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1359 (Michael) Major: 1359 (Michael)
11.8N 77.7W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: MikeC]
      #84727 - Tue Sep 09 2008 08:59 PM

Sure looks healthy on iR sat. Eye made quick re-appearance. Could this mean that it could regain strength even faster than what is forecast and what, if any implications on it's track would that have? IF it intensifies very quickly and IF it becomes a deeper system could it feel the effects of the passing sw trough more, causing a more ploeward motion initially before turning back westward?

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: MikeC]
      #84739 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:10 PM

Quote:

Ike's moved a bit further north (wobble perhaps?) than the earlier forecast track, which probably means a shift toward northern Texas later, but we'll see. Watching the wobbles isn't really important for huge changes, but it does impact the landfall point.




And the important thing to remember is, because of the 18Z models that came out, they won't reflect this northward wobble as far as their landfall track, so the 11pm EDT NHC update probably won't either, I wouldn't doubt if the NHC track moves slightly southward at 11.


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: watchinout]
      #84740 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:19 PM

Its going to take some time for the winds to catch up to the falling pressure. I'm expecting a Cat 4 at landfall in Northeastern Texas. Just a guess.

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: flahurricane]
      #84747 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:27 AM

Quote:

Its going to take some time for the winds to catch up to the falling pressure. I'm expecting a Cat 4 at landfall in Northeastern Texas. Just a guess.




NE Texas is Texarkana-ish. Landlocked.

If you're thinking of where Texas meets Louisiana in the Gulf, that's the Upper Texas Coast or if you include inland cities, Southeast Texas...

Don't know why, but the Texas coast is divided up Lower/Middle/Upper.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #84748 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:56 AM

The middle Texas coast looks to be the target...Thanks ShanaTX for pointing a few things out regarding the Texas coast line. The latest NHC discussion makes reference to the GFS and GFDL models.... but the last ECMWF run is right in line with the NHC track...or the NHC track is in line with the ECMWF. The Euro has verified very well lately.

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Sep 10 2008 02:46 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #84749 - Wed Sep 10 2008 02:47 AM

I'm still saying landfall will be between Corpus Christie and Brownsville. Only was off by .5 with Fay and Gustav 1dg (from 5 days out) and Hanna directlandfall. I need to keep this years landfall perfect within 1 dg LOL. I'm just waiting for a day where all the models say 1 thing, and oops he/she heads off in a totally different direction than the models indicate.

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: scottsvb]
      #84753 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:37 AM

I bet on the middle Texas coast. Second place for the lower and third for the upper coast. And alltogether I bet on .... Texas!!!

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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: scottsvb]
      #84754 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:44 AM

My guess - Port Aransas,

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84756 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:57 AM

The dangerous thing about the turn North now is that the NHC has it occurring before it makes landfall, which can make for interesting landfall. It could pull a Gus and scrape along the coastline for a while. Speed of Ike is crucial here, we'll have to see what he does.

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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84762 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:59 AM

I was wondering about Ike's slow down. He is not stalling, but compared to his clip at 14 mph for days, this slow down has me wondering. One of the things I have found so amazing since starting to learn about canes here is the ERC. Could Ike's slowdown be a combination of his starting an ERC when crossing Cuba, and now struggling to do so now? Ike is a beautiful cane, as much as you want to ever call something with so much destructive power beautiful. When he strengthens he has that buzz saw appearance with a clearly defined eye that is tight.
I also noticed something on the Atlantic WV...Is Josephine trying to make a come back?

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: DMFischer]
      #84766 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:16 AM

I think what is making Ike slow down right now is he hasn't quite reached the steering currents that are along the southern side of the ridge that is building over the north GOM. As he gets closer to this, he is forecast to pick up speed. This is something to watch carefully, if Ike stays at a slower speed, even for just a few hours, that will allow the trough weakness to move further East and will thus make Ike turn North sooner than it is currently projected.

I just found this cool website for anyone in the Houston/Galveston area. Especially if Ike turns more this way, this gives you an idea of the historical maximum wind speeds that your location has seen.

http://houstonhidefromthewind.org/


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84768 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:25 AM

Quote:

The dangerous thing about the turn North now is that the NHC has it occurring before it makes landfall, which can make for interesting landfall. It could pull a Gus and scrape along the coastline for a while. Speed of Ike is crucial here, we'll have to see what he does.




The appearance of the turn before landfall is simply a matter of connecting the dots on 12 hr points. If you look at the discussion carefully the forecasters note that most models have the turn coming after landfall. Selfishly, for me this would be a good thing.

The latest run on HWRF appears to have dropped back south and delayed the turn as well. It is beginning to look like the NHC is again on the north edge of model consensus.

Locally, this is a tough call. We evacuated from Rita 36 hours before landfall as the forecast track at that time was about as close to directly over our head as could be determined. At that time they were still saying Cat 4, maybe 5. Twelve hours later they moved the track 60 miles east, and 12 hours after that another 60 miles east. If Ike were to move 100 - 120 miles east in the last 36 hours it could be real interesting for our area. The good news if there is any is the Cat 2 outlook now. The bad news is the potential for stronger.

The mandatory evacuations for the low-lying coastal towns, like 10-12 miles away, started here this morning, with voluntary for the remainder of the county. It's already starting to be a zoo as folks react. Schools closed for the rest of the week as we found out this morning at 6:30 am.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84769 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:44 AM

The model that still concerns me for your/my area is the ECMWF model. Even the NHC commented on how accurate it has been with Ike and it still has it coming up kind of the same path as Alicia back in 1983, again basically over your head there in Lake Jackson. Basically it agrees with the NHC path, except it has it making a much sharper north turn as it gets to the coast line. The models all take a pretty good divergence at 36 hours, and I think your example of Rita is a great one to show just how easy it is for things to change at the last minute.

The 1pm CDT update will be a good gauge at the speed and track, one of the tracking points on the NOAA radar is set for that time today, so we will be able to see if Ike has varied his speed or track any at that point.

Edited by hogrunr (Wed Sep 10 2008 09:48 AM)


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 261
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Interesting wooble to the NE? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84770 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:18 AM

Looking at the Key West 248 miles radar with 40 frames (paid membership), it looks like the center of circulation is taking a shift to the NE. I imagine just a wobble, but interesting to me.

Weatherunderground Key West Radar

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
KFLGULFP5

Watch the best Clearwater Beach Cams:
Clearwater Beach Cams


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Neverwinter
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: PA
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84772 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:29 AM

Quote:

The 1pm CDT update will be a good gauge at the speed and track, one of the tracking points on the NOAA radar is set for that time today, so we will be able to see if Ike has varied his speed or track any at that point.




I agree. Hope we can see it more clearly.

Anyway, here's some amazing pictures from space:
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/hurricanes_as_seen_from_orbit.html

--------------------
Hurricane Ike


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Neverwinter]
      #84778 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:37 AM

10am CDT update is out now...basically steadily strengthening and growing in size. The 7 am update had Ike making landfall at about San Antonio Bay on the TX coast. While the landfall point is almost the same in the 10 am update, the last second norther jog to get it to that landfall point is gone. In other words, Ike's track has shifted North further out into the GOM. The piece of the track between 7 am Friday and 7 am Saturday is the section that shifted North overall.

There is still a definite split in the most recent models with the GFS on the west side, and the UKMET and ECMWF on the Eastern side. Also the peak intensity has increased.


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84781 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:49 AM

Quote:

10am CDT update is out now...basically steadily strengthening and growing in size. The 7 am update had Ike making landfall at about San Antonio Bay on the TX coast. While the landfall point is almost the same in the 10 am update, the last second norther jog to get it to that landfall point is gone. In other words, Ike's track has shifted North further out into the GOM. The piece of the track between 7 am Friday and 7 am Saturday is the section that shifted North overall.

There is still a definite split in the most recent models with the GFS on the west side, and the UKMET and ECMWF on the Eastern side. Also the peak intensity has increased.




And once Ike starts bending to the N, he won't stop. And if Ike's turning on Friday AM, why will
it turn to the W on Thurs AM?

If I lived in Houston I would be scheduling a long weekend starting this PM.


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Neverwinter
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: PA
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84783 - Wed Sep 10 2008 12:08 PM

They are starting to curve Ike north as it gets closer to the Texas coast. This tells us the ridge over the NE Gulf will steer the system NW at first and the ridge behind it will not be as strong. Hurricanes, and low pressures systems like to find a weakness in a ridge/HIGH pressure and follow the path of least resistance. It's like the two highs, one over SE Texas and the other over NE Gulf, are mountains. The Valley is in between and that spot right now is the Central and North Gulf Coast.

The update doesn't seem different to the last one...
!

--------------------
Hurricane Ike


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84784 - Wed Sep 10 2008 12:13 PM

Quote:

Quote:

10am CDT update is out now...basically steadily strengthening and growing in size. The 7 am update had Ike making landfall at about San Antonio Bay on the TX coast. While the landfall point is almost the same in the 10 am update, the last second norther jog to get it to that landfall point is gone. In other words, Ike's track has shifted North further out into the GOM. The piece of the track between 7 am Friday and 7 am Saturday is the section that shifted North overall.

There is still a definite split in the most recent models with the GFS on the west side, and the UKMET and ECMWF on the Eastern side. Also the peak intensity has increased.




And once Ike starts bending to the N, he won't stop. And if Ike's turning on Friday AM, why will
it turn to the W on Thurs AM?

If I lived in Houston I would be scheduling a long weekend starting this PM.




I agree with you completely...I'm hoping my work shuts down for Friday so I can ship my family over to San Antonio to stay with family. My boss and I have made a bet...if we work on Friday, I owe him lunch

Wow Ike has taken a nice little N wobble...the 1pm CDT update I think is going to be very interesting for the Upper TX coast

Very interesting look at the steering currents here...if you step through the last couple of slides you can see how close Ike is to reaching the weakness (edge) of the ridge to it's north...I am definitely predicting a more northerly track than the NHC is so far.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html


Edited by hogrunr (Wed Sep 10 2008 12:54 PM)


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jf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Forecast Points [Re: watchinout]
      #84785 - Wed Sep 10 2008 12:55 PM

For the past 4 hours it appears as though IKE is drifting NNW and slowing down. Do any one of you see the same pattern?

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