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Recon flying both PTC2 (former 94L) and 95L again today, Thursday. Hurricane Watch for Nicaragua/Coasta Rica border region.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 289 (Nicholas) , Major: 305 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1359 (Michael) Major: 1359 (Michael)
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W at 21 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Forecast Points [Re: jf]
      #84786 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:25 PM

Yes, and the NHC saw the same thing basically. They said that although Ike's eye has only been slightly drifting that the overall system was still moving WNW at 8mph. I would agree with you though and say his most recent movements have more of a NNW direction than WNW.

Also, the 12Z model tracks are starting to come out. The GFS has moved up the TX coast to be more inline with the group now instead of being the outlier down close to Brownsville, we'll have to watch the rest of the models as they come out over the next 30 min or so.


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Forecast Points [Re: jf]
      #84787 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:26 PM

Ike appears right on track with the last forecast to me.

The 12:00 Z UKMET is just in and ... it moved landfall south to cross right at the point of the last HHC track forecast. With both UKMET and HWRF having moved landfall well south, this places the current forecast track on the northern edge of the the most noteworthy models, and well north of the GFS ensemble which has landfall down by Baffin Bay. It also appears that the turns are being delayed. If the short-term current track holds over the next 3+ hours, an adjustment of the track between tomorrow AM and landfall more towards Corpus Christi or even just south would be very reasonable.

It will be interesting to see where the watches go up -- should start tomorrow afternoon.


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84788 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:34 PM

Quote:

I agree with you completely...I'm hoping my work shuts down for Friday so I can ship my family over to San Antonio to stay with family. My boss and I have made a bet...if we work on Friday, I owe him lunch




Everyone needs to make their own choice. This morning at 4 am I changed our evac plans form San Antonio to Houston in the Galleria area. If I lived in Spring I wouldn't even be considering evacuating, and especially not to San Antonio. I was there for Rita. That city is going to be packed and the roads a mess with every one fleeing from Brownsville to Victoria. Plus, that's likely to be to rain and inland storm hotspot after landfall.

Good Luck !


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84789 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:36 PM

Well this is again only if it takes a more direct aim at us, if it stays with it's current track or even a little further north, we won't. If it hits in your area, we may, especially if he makes it to cat4 or almost.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84790 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:47 PM

The 12Z GFDL has shifted north with the GFS and now runs Ike over Galveston in about 60-66 hours. Before anyone freaks out about that, keep in mind that is still on the north (and fast) side of guidance. Model solutions will probably continue to bounce back and forth for awhile, given the subtle factors that will be affecting its path.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84792 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:50 PM

Tropical Weather Statements were just issued for all of the coastal counties expected to be affected in TX. Several counties/zip codes with mandatory evacs as well as some with voluntary. Expected storm surge with the current track si 15-18 feet in matagorda bay area and a little less as you go up the coast towards Houston with Galveston Bay expecting 4-8 feet of surge.

Again, this will change if the track does.

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=HLS&node=KHGX


Edited by hogrunr (Wed Sep 10 2008 01:56 PM)


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84793 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:57 PM

Quote:

The 12Z GFDL has shifted north with the GFS and now runs Ike over Galveston in about 60-66 hours. Before anyone freaks out about that, keep in mind that is still on the north (and fast) side of guidance. Model solutions will probably continue to bounce back and forth for awhile, given the subtle factors that will be affecting its path.




Yep - just saw that. That sure changes things. GFDL has switched sides with UKMET & HWRF. I can't wait to see what they do to with the ensemble, AEMN. The NHC track is now in the middle of the pack. Those NHC folks sure know their work.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84794 - Wed Sep 10 2008 02:01 PM

1pm CDT is out...Ike is at 100mph winds now, he's looking much healthier on the sat's now. The track is shifted north again, from San Antonio Bay to Matagorda Bay near Port Lavaca. This next 12 hours or so is going to be very interesting...

Thought this was interesting from a probability standpoint...notice that from just south of Corpus all the way up to the Houston area all have the exact same probability of having 50 knot winds....this thing is still so wide open!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151325.shtml?50wind120#contents

The HWRF 12Z is out now also, and while not as pronounced of a move as the GFDL, it still shifted a little north, just above the NHC track.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84795 - Wed Sep 10 2008 02:16 PM

IKE is on a path to near Corpus Christi still. My idea has been from Brownsville-Corpus Christi, and now since its 2.5 days out its time to make it official with the data I see from Models, etc. My forecast is slightly further up from just south of Corpus Christi (near Santa)-Matagorda TX. The ridge over Mexico is having a hard time adjusting eastward and will probably not be strong enough to extend fully with the ridging over the northern gulf coast. This will cause IKE to move more WNW instead of almost due west. Landfall late Friday night or Saturday morning as a Cat 3 is still expected. I'm still 50-50 on Houston getting TS force winds, but they should get gusts over that.

BTW as a joke the GFDL has IKE imbedding with a cold front and strengthening near Lake Erie as a Cat 2... How funny is that. (Feedback problems on IKE)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: scottsvb]
      #84796 - Wed Sep 10 2008 02:38 PM

Quote:

IKE is on a path to near Corpus Christi still. My idea has been from Brownsville-Corpus Christi, and now since its 2.5 days out its time to make it official with the data I see from Models, etc. My forecast is slightly further up from just south of Corpus Christi (near Santa)-Matagorda TX. The ridge over Mexico is having a hard time adjusting eastward and will probably not be strong enough to extend fully with the ridging over the northern gulf coast. This will cause IKE to move more WNW instead of almost due west. Landfall late Friday night or Saturday morning as a Cat 3 is still expected. I'm still 50-50 on Houston getting TS force winds, but they should get gusts over that.

BTW as a joke the GFDL has IKE imbedding with a cold front and strengthening near Lake Erie as a Cat 2... How funny is that. (Feedback problems on IKE)




Sorry I'm a little confused, matagorda is north of corpus...I think you meant to leave out the highlighted part up above? And I agree with your placement, possibly even a little further up, but I don't think it will further south than that.

Just another data point, Ike's current track has his eye following an 86* eddy almost all the way to the coast...that's alot of warm water for him to have access too.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84798 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:09 PM

The intensity forecast for Ike is even less straight-forward than the track forecast. Ike continues to have a very large, broad, and atypical circulation for a hurricane, with recon recently finding hurricane force winds over 100 miles from the center (those winds being stronger than any winds near the center). Ike also appears to be entraining some mid-level dry air into its circulation from the surrounding environment.

The good news is that Ike is very unlikely to rapidly intensify in its current state of organization. Storms like this seem to have a tough time consolidating after becoming "unwound" like Ike did over Cuba. Fitful bursts of modest intensification should be the case in the short term. If Ike can overcome the mid-level dry air surrounding it, upper-level winds and SSTs may be favorable enough for Ike to eventually consolidate into more of a classic hurricane.

The bad news about Ike's size is that. even if it stays as broad and unfocused as it is now, a very large area could end up being affected by hurricane-force winds and storm surge, much more than you would expect with a typical hurricane.


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84799 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:16 PM

My wife just noted that this is getting amusing. At an estimated 66 hrs from landfall, the entire Texas coastline is in the cone.

If the county judges get excited we could be trying to break our own largest US evacuation from Rita. How about 5 million people scrambling on the highways looking for shelter ?


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84801 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:37 PM

No I said it pretty clear I think.. from Santa (which is just south of Corpus Christi) to Matagorda. Strength of the ridging will deteremine IKEs landfall!

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RedCrosser
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: New York, NY
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: scottsvb]
      #84805 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:03 PM

Ike is the "size of Texas!" --lol...in all seriousness it is a very large storm.. and I can only hope that keeps it from consolidating and from any rapid intensification. Currently, that seems to be the case. *fingers crossed*

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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: scottsvb]
      #84809 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:14 PM

Quote:

No I said it pretty clear I think.. from Santa (which is just south of Corpus Christi) to Matagorda. Strength of the ridging will deteremine IKEs landfall!




Baffin Bay would be a more appropriate landmark since the town of Santa is about 25 miles inland.

The middle of your forecast range is about where I put my guess - Port Aransas. But that was before the 12Z GFDL release, which still has me baffled. About all the other models moved to about Port Lavaca, and then GFDL moves back toward Galveston. Very strange.


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: RedCrosser]
      #84810 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:18 PM

If my eyes aren't fooling me, Ike is north of the short-term forecast track by about three hours. That may move the forecast further up the coast.

May be leaving tomorrow. This won't be any fun.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84812 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:24 PM

I see what you see EBinTX, he is definitely north of the track right now.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84817 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:03 PM

the 4pm CDT is out, another shift northward coming in almost completely north of matagorda bay now and the intensity is increased to a 4 from a 3...EBinTX, I would be packing my bags right about now for you.

Also, Hurricane watch now in effect from Cameron Louisiana, to Port Mansfield, TX


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: RedCrosser]
      #84832 - Wed Sep 10 2008 06:35 PM

Evacuation will be messy because there will be a lot of people leaving late. I hope people realize that if they're in Galveston they should stay in Houston because conditions will not be good in most places they'll be going to...

(Houston, Austin and San Antonio are all within 100 miles of the projected landfall)


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chitown
Unregistered




Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #84843 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:33 PM

Looks like Ike is getting itself together quickly and might be much stronger than forecast to be during the next update

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