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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #84844 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:39 PM

The current forecast has it at a Cat 2 about 90 miles inland at Halletsville -- 104 miles from San Antonio, 115 miles from Houston -- and headed straight for Austin 74 miles away. This has more than a few similarities to Katrina, such as size and forecast strength. The storm surge damage along the coast east of its path could be as severe.

With the current path ~50 miles west of our home, we will be leaving tomorrow. Hope my boat off Galveston Bay makes it.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #84846 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:40 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

If you go there and turn on the tracking points and the NWS Fronts, you can see the weakness starting to build in the ridge off to the NW of Houston...

Just a little further explanation, in case I wasn't clear (someone wrote and asked me about it )

The blue and red ridge line that appears on that map when you turn on the NWS Fronts check box, had previously been completely horizontal (parallel with the gulf coast), whereas now you can see the "hump" in it over East TX where the trough is starting to create the weakness that Ike should turn north into.

Also, the 7pm CDT is out and Ike is holding strong at 100mph, with a very low pressure level (947mb). There are now 4 models pointing right at the Houston/Galveston area, including the GFDL. We'll see if this trend holds through the night or if it changes again by morning

Edited by hogrunr (Wed Sep 10 2008 08:37 PM)


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84851 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:41 PM

Quote:

The current forecast has it at a Cat 2 about 90 miles inland at Halletsville -- 104 miles from San Antonio, 115 miles from Houston -- and headed straight for Austin 74 miles away. This has more than a few similarities to Katrina, such as size and forecast strength. The storm surge damage along the coast east of its path could be as severe.

With the current path ~50 miles west of our home, we will be leaving tomorrow. Hope my boat off Galveston Bay makes it.




Just out - our City has ordered a "mandatory" evacuation beginning at 10 PM tonight.


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84853 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:18 PM

Quote:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html





Nice site. And no West turn in the latest NHC.
and Ike still hasn't turned from its "Coriollis Effect"track, close to Gustav's.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Good luck.


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84863 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:57 PM

Ohhh... not good for Galveston and Houston! The new NHC shows Ike just south of Galveston...

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #84864 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:10 PM

Keep in mind that the lines between forecast points do not necessarily represent the expected path of the storm. Drawing a straight line between the 48 and 72 hour forecast points makes it appear the forecast track is closer to Galveston, but the storm is likely to make more of a gradual curve between 48 and 72 hours, bringing it onshore further south and then arcing back into northeast Texas by 72 hours.

That is not to say that a further north landfall is not possible. Ike is a large storm and Galveston is still well within the cone and the Hurricane Watch and everyone in the area should be taking appropriate action at this point.


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84867 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:23 PM

Thank you

I realized that after I looked at a better map.

Ike is one weird hurricane....

How long can it have that double eyewall thing anyway?


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84868 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:25 PM

Okay, so that means that the actual path may be about 10-20 miles west of my house rather than the 10 miles east that the new forecast track would imply. The straight-line connect-the dots put the track just east of Freeport, which is but about 9 miles from where I am sitting. Galveston would be severely affected being just on the east side of the track. My revised evacuation plan puts me right under the track about 50-55 miles inland.

Again - 36 hours before Rita made landfall the forecast indicated landfall very, very close to that presently forecast for Ike. Twelve hours later it moved 60 miles east to the Bolivar peninsula, and 12 hours after that it moved another 60 miles east. The bottom line is we still don't have a really good feel for exactly where it's going to fall and the TX coast has warnings up nearly all of its length. This is going to be a very, very messy evacuation. Hope CNN and TWC are ready for it.

Edited by EBinTX (Wed Sep 10 2008 11:59 PM)


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84869 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:57 PM

Okay, at something like 48 hrs before landfall, here's my revised guess .. Ike will make landfall somewhere between Port Bolivar and Sabine Pass -- High Island is about midway - and then run pretty much over Beaumont / Port Arthur. Final answer !

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #84872 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:10 AM

Ike's double eyewall structure could persist indefinitely, but given the small size of the inner eyewall, it seems more likely that the outer eyewall will take over at some point. If there is an eyewall replacement, that could induce some temporary weakening, but that may be less of an issue with Ike's large size. Given Ike's unusual structure and the possibility of eyewall replacements, its future intensity is even more difficult to predict than usual. It is almost certain to remain a very large storm, though.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: EBinTX]
      #84873 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:13 AM

Just as a side note, the people in N. Houston are going nuts already. The gas stations near my house only have premium left, there was a line of cars in the lumber section at Lowes, the shelves at walmart were starting to look bare, and I even saw a lady buy 10 bags of ice from the drive thru window at mcdonalds...

(A reminder to attempt to stay on topic - this would have been more appropriate in the Disaster Forum under a new title.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 11 2008 12:46 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84875 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:27 AM

I really dont see IKE getting higher than a moderate Cat 3 with winds around 120-125mph. Reason is, its a Big Storm. Usually big storms like IKE cant consolidate their winds in combination with its pressure. Nonetheless, A Cat 3 is a serious issue, no one needs 120mph winds coming ashore!

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: scottsvb]
      #84876 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:36 AM

Quote:

I really dont see IKE getting higher than a moderate Cat 3 with winds around 120-125mph. Reason is, its a Big Storm. Usually big storms like IKE cant consolidate their winds in combination with its pressure. Nonetheless, A Cat 3 is a serious issue, no one needs 120mph winds coming ashore!




Especially when those winds do spread out so far...as Ike comes ashore (on the currrent track) pretty much all of Houston and even some suburbs north of Houston will be getting sustained hurricane force winds.

They have updated this website finally to reflect more recent information...it now shows even the north side of houston to be getting sustained winds in the mid to upper 80 mph's. If the intensity goes up, then obviously so will that.

Edited by hogrunr (Thu Sep 11 2008 02:12 AM)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: hogrunr]
      #84880 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:04 AM

Just watched the most recent visible sat and Ike seems to have reformed a new eyewall, as well as having a good deal of new convection around that new eyewall...Ike is almost 1000 miles across now. I wouldn't be surprised if Ike strengthens by the 10 am CDT update, and maybe evacs for the Houston area soon to follow.

I'm getting worried about how long we will be without power here now....

Now the 0600z UKMET and GFS models are out, they have moved further inline with the NHC right now than there 0000z models. Also note, as with Gustav, the NHC had their 5 day track right on.

Edited by hogrunr (Thu Sep 11 2008 07:20 AM)


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TarponSkyWarn
Unregistered




ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: EBinTX]
      #84887 - Thu Sep 11 2008 08:37 AM

Hello all. Don't post much here, but I do actively track hurricanes - I live in Tampa Bay! Using the link below the ECMWF model was predicting this landfall track (fairly close) all the way back on labor day weekend when Ike was barely a tropical storm. Interesting. I don't hear this model used a lot, I see a lot of focus on GFDL, GFS, and HWFI (I think). With the exception of I believe 2 model runs where it brought Ike into east Florida, the ECMWF held strong to a Houston - New Orleans land fall until Sept. 7th where it seemed to drop it, according to the link below? Question: is the model usually reliable? Was it just lucky? It really seemed to out perform other models for this storm early in the game. We all need to pray for the people of Texas and be mindful of the verbiage we use on this forum.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2008082712!!/


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: TarponSkyWarn]
      #84891 - Thu Sep 11 2008 09:43 AM

A couple of interesting notes about the 06Z runs, the GFDL has shifted back south of Galveston near the NHC track, and both the GFDL and HWRF show very little change in intensity (pressure-wise) until landfall. Of course, the max wind speed could increase even if the pressure doesn't fall, but the storm would have to contract its wind field to do that.

The ECMWF is the probably best model in the world. It is highly regarded by weather forecasters. Forecasters still usually prefer the model consensus at longer time ranges, though, which is why they were a little slow to initially bite off of the ECMWF solution for Ike.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84897 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:57 AM

the latest wind steering product shows us a good idea of steering.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

and given the storm is so massive in width, im not sure if a frontal boundries, at this point can change much of anything. this is just my opinion, but things are very favorable for a texas coast impact. i dont really see the prediction shifting much more east.


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Neverwinter
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: PA
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84905 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:42 PM

Quote:

the latest wind steering product shows us a good idea of steering.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

and given the storm is so massive in width, im not sure if a frontal boundries, at this point can change much of anything. this is just my opinion, but things are very favorable for a texas coast impact. i dont really see the prediction shifting much more east.




I agree. And I guess it really shows in the models...

--------------------
Hurricane Ike


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Neverwinter]
      #84928 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:31 PM

Ike is looking much better right now...a little better definition on the eye, but more importantly, he is breathing much better out of his West side. He had been very lopsided with only 2 quadrants really brreathing, maybe 3, and now all 4 seem to be doing so. This may be enough to help him strengthen a little, lets just hope his winds don't catch up to his pressure level.

Right now we are looking at 94mph winds at our home as he passes directly over according to this:

http://houstonhidefromthewind.org


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: hogrunr]
      #84932 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:50 PM

All modells are in a quite good agreement about the future track and landfall area. It shoould be not far to the SW of the Houton-Galveston-area, which is of course bad new, because they would get a remarkably high surge there.
The HWRF ist quite funny: All the time it had predicted a 900 hPa-monster and in the last two runs it has flipped totally to a TS-landfall!

Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 03:51 PM)


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