Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#98L continues pushing inland Deep S. TX. Heavy, banding precip with gusts to Trop Storm force along the S. TX coast currently underway.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 350 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1404 (Michael) Major: 1404 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)
iso
Unregistered




Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Unregistered User]
      #84003 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:05 PM

Locally (just north of the Cape up to New Smyrna Beach) in the first 4 days of September I've measured surf wt's from 80-83F (Today was 83).

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: iso]
      #84008 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:33 PM

Another model trend I'm noticing is that Ike may slow down a lot as it approaches Florida. The thought of a major slowing down near or on the coast of Florida after Fay is not one I want to see, so we'll forget that for now. It's not all likely,


Either it could slam into Cuba (Like the GFDL and HRWF show tonight) or head just north and enter the Gulf, Get near or over florida (If it gets near the "ooh it may turn" Floyd-esque event may happen, better for Florida, worse for points North. Or it could just flat out slow down and slowly crawl over Florida into the Gulf (If the trough gets weaker, this is possible), but unlike Fay, as a much stronger storm.

And what I hope happens, it could go out to sea, but with the trends today, that looks less likely right now unfortunately.

Still the probabilities for any of the above actually happening are pretty low, and I'm not going to guess outside of tossing these up. It may wind up doing something crazy like diving south too.

There's the model round up tonight.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: iso]
      #84009 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:33 PM

Looks to me, with the latest satelite image and loop, that Ike has started to make his turn to the southwest.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #84010 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:38 PM

looks west to me... don't see any southern component personally

but moving back and forth so fast between links I'm getting dizzy

models aren't making me happy

i'll check again when i get back from the store.. if there is any food left

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: LoisCane]
      #84012 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:51 PM

Notice the flattening that is ocurring on the Water Vapor loop on the northeast quadrant. My eyes may be tricking me, but I see a turn with a southerly component is happening or just about to happen. I may be wrong and I will stand corrected if so.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #84014 - Thu Sep 04 2008 08:13 PM

I agree with Dan...I don't quite see the southern component yet, but I do see the Northerly component is gone and the flattening on the NE side of the storm.

The other thing is, if the SW turn does start this soon, it is before the forecast to do so and will keep Ike from going over Hanna's waters for a couple of extra days and I think by then that the waters won't be nearly as cool as they could be.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jessiej
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: hogrunr]
      #84016 - Thu Sep 04 2008 08:30 PM

Here's a link to the European model. It is showing Ike going thru Western Cuba and making landfall in the Central Gulf.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...8090412!!!step/

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: jessiej]
      #84017 - Thu Sep 04 2008 08:38 PM

How has that european model performed in the past? Ike is the first storm of the season that has caused me any real concern. Ike looks to be trouble for Florida. Anyone guessing how the models are going to tend on this one in a day or so? Right now, it looks like Florida better take notice.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #84018 - Thu Sep 04 2008 08:51 PM

The ECMWF has preformed rather well this season. I have myself favored it for the past 3 years or so and this season it has pretty much run the FSU Super off the road (what I am told), I don't see the FSU stuff... Read the NHC products and just be prepared. The NHC is the very best at what they do, and the Official ones to do it.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: hogrunr]
      #84019 - Thu Sep 04 2008 08:52 PM

I'm starting to get that deer in the headlights feeling. Every site I vist has the same tone. We need to collectively stay calm. This is why I would rather live in a hurricane prone area than a tornado active area. We still have time to watch and prepare. The cone of possible center locations at 120 hrs is huge. The problem I am having is the improvement in track accuracy over the years. We have already started having conversations about moving critical documents from our construction trailer, if the current senario pans out it certainly won't survive. Looking at synoptics right now the pattern seems to me to be far less complicated compared with Hanna's movement. The main influence on IKE is the strength of the ridge building (which the models seem to have a handle on) as compared with the variety of issues Hanna has faced - outflow from Gustav, strong shear from ULL to the North, weak steering currents.
We are looking at a strong storm projected to be in our back yard in a few days and everyone needs to stay prepared. From Cuba to the Carolinas and the Gulf coast down the road if IKE decides on that route.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: hogrunr]
      #84021 - Thu Sep 04 2008 09:05 PM

My prediction is that Ike will be just south of the projected path at 0600 UTC.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: craigm]
      #84022 - Thu Sep 04 2008 09:23 PM

i couldnt agree more. im starting to get the opinion that if ike hits florida isnt as important as where in florida will ike make landfall. for us floridians thats what we should be working on at this moment. a general opinion that it is going to hit has been formed. lets try to figure out where now, it will make landfall within the next couple of days and help everyone prepare.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84023 - Thu Sep 04 2008 09:36 PM

For the heck of it, even realizing it's a bit too early, I looked at my County's EOC page and below is what I saw!

It's called Hurrtrak Advanced and shows the probabilities of Ike hitting my area. It's in .pdf format and am not sure if it will show on my post an an attachment.
Well I am sorry as I'm trying to include it as .pdf and apparently that won't work on this site.

I live in Saint Lucie County, Florida with major towns of Port Saint Lucie and Fort Pierce; and am about 40 minutes north of West Palm Beach.

Okay, I was at least able to provide the link for my EOC's probability map. And on my end when I click on to the highlighted "Ike" word, it then takes me to the .pdf graph of which days will have what kind of wind in my area. Hopefully you can view this, too.

http://www.stlucieco.gov/eoc/storm_map.htm

Edited by ltpat228 (Thu Sep 04 2008 09:58 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: ltpat228]
      #84027 - Thu Sep 04 2008 09:53 PM

And as everyone can see from that last post....Ike has just as much a chance of going south and hitting cuba as it does of hitting Florida! Keep watching, but don't freak out yet....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84029 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:01 PM

Ike has been moving due west from what I can tell, he looks to be just south of the NHC's next forecast point by about the width of his inner core (eye wall diameter). As noted by others the NE quad is feeling the push already, so a WSW motion should begin as forecast, just slightly eariler. It will be interesting to see if the NHC shifts the cone slightly south to compensate. And if that's the case then UKMET & GFS are both wrong already, however this far out such a small tweaks means very little. The only good thing about such a well formed hurricane is the eye is clearly defined thus tracking any movement is much easier.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
flhurcnwtchr
Unregistered




Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: JMII]
      #84030 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:09 PM

what is sctsvb saying about all of this with ike? does he have a special website that we can get on his consensus? any input is greatly appreciated.. thanks all

Register then PM him your questions.

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Sep 04 2008 10:23 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
St_Petersburg_Layman
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Loc:
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: flhurcnwtchr]
      #84034 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:31 PM

I have lurked on this website for a few years and really appreciate all the information from the laymen to the mets. First time I have ever felt the need to post so here it goes. A couple of days ago the trend in the models started showing the southerly component with a northwesterly movement into FL. My fear at that time was that the trend would continue and actually move further west. The recent GFDL has Ike slamming Cuba then turning north and then northeasterly towards the FL gulf coast. The recent HWRF has Ike running through the striaghts and then making the same northern and then northeastern turn. I hope this does not turn out to be another trend but I fear it may be. St. Pete/Clearwater/Tampa would be destroyed by a storm on that path and strength.

Once again, thanks for all the information and I look forward to learning more.

Edited by St_Petersburg_Layman (Thu Sep 04 2008 10:32 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: JMII]
      #84036 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:38 PM

Very good point, the eye is so wide open currently he is easy to follow.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

and yeah.. just a drop perhaps of the forecast point..which is no big deal but they have been hitting the points perfectly, not happy its to the south of it... or close to south of it. See how the next few frames come in.

ships model brings it way too close to miami/fll

yeah, when the little kids are tracking, watching and everyone is talking there is a fatalistic feel about this, especially because the NHC was sooo good with Gustav's track from far out

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
iso
Unregistered




Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: St_Petersburg_Layman]
      #84038 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:42 PM

my children's babysitter, a 3rd generation resident of east central florida, always mentions the july 1926 hurricane (came up the east coast from south florida, nearly wiped the then thriving town of scottsmoor in north brevard county off the map) when talking about hurricanes. some of the tracks so far this year look similar to that busy year for florida:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/82/1926_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: iso]
      #84040 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:52 PM

Yup. Good observation.

Cat 4s everywhere. Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas slammed. Not many years like 26.. thankfully.

Strong high that year and this year.

right now the 11pm has the hurricane over Miami Tuesday night..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 472653

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center