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#98L continues pushing inland Deep S. TX. Heavy, banding precip with gusts to Trop Storm force along the S. TX coast currently underway.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 350 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1404 (Michael) Major: 1404 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: native]
      #84166 - Fri Sep 05 2008 05:41 PM

Quote:

Very frustrating. I'm still not sold on the more southerly track yet. I usually do not get sold one way or the other until MOST ALL the models come into some semblance of harmony. Right now, as it stands, we've got two different camps...so for right now, I'll split the difference between the two.

I still think that unfortunately, we'll have to wait until late tomorrow to really start "feelin' the love" with the models and forecasted track.

I'm going to wishcast here and go to bed tonight and wish/pray like heck that I'll wake up and somehow the shear will have eaten him alive and he's all gone! (I know, not likely but, a girl's gotta have a dream!)

Man, I hope the Keys start evacuating post haste. Like say 4am for visitors/tourists and Sunday A.M. for residents. I know it took us 7 hours just to get from Key West to Key Largo during Fay. We left at 9am on Sunday. Brutal.




Mandatory evac for visitors 9am Sat; for us conchs staged evac starting at 8am Sun; please don't clogged up the road for me please ... - take care.


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KimKeyWest
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc:
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: docrod]
      #84168 - Fri Sep 05 2008 05:54 PM

I think this is what you're looking for: http://redcross.tallytown.com/map/Surge-MonroeCounty.pdf

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #84170 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:02 PM

Quote:

Not sure if this is what you are looking for or not;

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm




Hi - thanks - I've seen this page - I should have been clearer - sorry. There is a SLOSH model I believe that will forecast storm surge for specific storm events; there was something under development on a "tides" website (Fed gov site) about two years but I cannot find that link or if it has morphed into something else. At that time the link had experimental storm surge information on hypothetical storms. The link would be active then inactive.

Lacking this site and web page that I did see about two years ago; are there storm surge estimates well ahead of time or are they only available hours before the strike?

The second storm surge we had from Wilma was amazing and caught many of us in the Keys by surprise.

- thanks again - Rod


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: native]
      #84171 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:08 PM

Most of the models end up with, at least, Ike paralleling the Gulf coast of FL. If that plays out, then a very large area of FL will be impacted. I still don't like what my gut is telling me. At any rate, if Ike enters the GOM, someone is going to suffer a major to severe hurricane. The models do cluster along the NHC forecast with a couple of outliers to the East and West. The GFDL, which has been fairly accurate, shows the course going south over Cuba and then up the FL Gulf coast which would lead to a weaker storm in the Gulf. The GFS shows Ike crossing South FL and then recurving to the NE into Tampa Bay. I have to keep pointing out that everyone in the cone needs to be on alert. This is an evolving situation and things could change radically on short notice. I'm going in to work tomorrow morning to unload an emergency truck load of hurricane supplies - my day off.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: docrod]
      #84173 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:25 PM

Looking at the various water vapor loops you can see how the cone make prefect sense: ahead of Ike is a flow from the NE pushing him SW, then there is the flow (or wake) behind Hanna coming from up the SE over Cuba. You can clearly see the ridge building using the Eastern US view here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html Also visible is the front that squeezing Hanna and accelerating her N currently and will push her NE rapidly after landfall. This front doesn't look to be deep enough to push Ike back E if (or when) he reaches the Gulf unless he move much further N. In other words if he reaches the Gulf the track would be more towards the Panhandle then Ft. Myers/Tampa, but that is WAY too far down the road to determine at this time.

The current flow over FL is still SE but it seems the ridge is building in quicker thus the reason for Ike moving SW. My worry is the weakness over the southern Bahamas/NE Cuba that will give Ike a chance to sneak NW a bit sooner. The models favor the ridge building in strongly behind Hanna and thus keeping Ike south while he continues to marches west. This solution seems very likely to me so I'd say the NHC track looks good for now, just watch for Ike's position relative to the forecast solution come Monday - if he is N of his forecast position then South FL should be on alert. Regardless of his position the Keys have to be in full on prep mode by Monday since Ike will come close enough regardless of any track errors.

The good news is (like Andrew) so far Ike has a small hurricane force wind field (45 miles presently) so a track thru the lower Keys will only produce Cat 1/2 effects on the upper Keys, Dade county might only see sustained TS level winds and Broward would feel only TS gusts. Keep in mind these are just my uneducated quick estimates, PLEASE check the various wind field products issued by the NHC to see what to except once we are under a watch/warning situation.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Saint Lucie County EOC [Re: docrod]
      #84174 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:27 PM

Below is the link for Saint Lucie County, Florida's Emergency Operations Center.

I check it frequently and just noticed on their Situation Report link on their Quick Links menu that they are activating the EOC's Hurricane Information Hotline beginning 0800 Saturday, August 6th.


http://www.stlucieco.gov/eoc/situation_report.htm


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Current motion [Re: ltpat228]
      #84175 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:32 PM

IKE may have begun a more westerly motion, now that it is regaining structure. The eye is reappearing more centraly located in the midst of the dense overcast. The key is if that flow over the Bahamas becomes more zonal, E to W.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: doug]
      #84178 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:11 PM

It appears that the shear over Ike has begun to relax since the outflow on the north side is improving and the storm's overall structure is becoming symmetrical again. We should begin to see an eye redevelop soon. It still looks to me that the motion is slightly South of due West.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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Coastal Worried
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: MichaelA]
      #84179 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:21 PM

first time poster here. Love the site. Rookie wannabe weather chaser. Live on the coast of Pinellas county. Is this one I have to worry about or are we out of the woods with this thing?

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finz
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: Coastal Worried]
      #84181 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:25 PM

Hey Guys i live in miami....I just began to notice a west track from ike.....how will this affect the path and will the path more south or north

ps can u send me the link to the computermodels page.....cause i wanna see that too:)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: Coastal Worried]
      #84182 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:27 PM

Re: Coastal Worried and finz

Be ready to get ready or evacuate. Hopefuly, Ike will stay away, but it is way too early to tell. Sunday and Monday will be the time that things will become more definite. I'd be making your plans now and be ready to execute them on relatively short notice.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Fri Sep 05 2008 07:29 PM)


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finz
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: MichaelA]
      #84183 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:29 PM

yea and to make it worse...I live on the beach(miami beach)....so yea.....Since ike is moving more west than wsw,will the path change?

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coastal worried
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: finz]
      #84184 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:33 PM

I've been in Pinellas county 20 years and the storms always seem to turn. Is Pinellas situated in such a manner that storms just don't come here for some geographic reason? Like it's hard for them to make the turn around the keys and then hit Pinellas???

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: coastal worried]
      #84187 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:42 PM

Nothing special, just lucky, Charley was supposed to come to the Tampa Bay region before he made that hard right turn. There have been much weaker systems which have come very close to the Tampa Bay area, though in recent times. If I'm correct, Hurricane Easy in 1950 was the last major hurricane to affect Tampa Bay. It came ashore just North of the region (worst case scenario for storm surge in Tampa Bay). In direct answer to your question, yes they can come here.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Current motion [Re: MichaelA]
      #84188 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:51 PM

Ike still has a south component to it's motion but yes - it's mostly west. Ike is about to enter those waters that Hanna stirred up for a few days. I'm beginning to think that the Keys are not going to get a "shield" from Cuba. We will soon know if Hanna has any effect. - take care

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Current motion [Re: MichaelA]
      #84189 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:52 PM

looks like the 18Z GFDL takes Ike farther west into the Gulf with its eyes in the panhandle/mobile region...the GFS takes it in the same general direction but stalls it in the gulf and the heads it northeast, but the GFS seems to stall systems often after 4 days..did it with Gustav and fay, and the stalls never happened, the storms continued on the track

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: pcola]
      #84193 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:01 PM

Both seem to be trending farther south over or even south of Cuba. Still a major to extreme storm in the eastern Gulf is not good. The HWRF has also chimed in with a track over Cuba.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Fri Sep 05 2008 08:09 PM)


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chaserwannabe
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: MichaelA]
      #84196 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:10 PM

The advisory is late.....I have bad mojo about this storm

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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: chaserwannabe]
      #84197 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:21 PM

It's out now...basically a carbon copy of the previous advisory...literally almost no change in anything.

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watchinout
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84199 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:51 PM

Been looking at models, tracks, and graphs and adding it together with what some of yall are saying and it looks like theres a possibility of Ike passing through the Florida Straits into the Gulf and making a curve into or near the Cedar Key area . Wondering what the rest of you think?

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