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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Current motion [Re: Unregistered User]
      #84200 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:53 PM

Just tuned in to TWC and met on duty now...said he would not be at all surprised to see in the 11pm udate the S component removed from Ike's current WSW movement. I also heard Dr. Steve Lyons on a little bit earlier...I really like him, no fuss no muss, just lays it out.

He kept mentioning the more westerly component and the whole timing thing...

All in all, what I personally took away from watching them both was that they don't seem completely sold (yet) on the models that forecast the extreme south track, south of cuba senario.

Far more worrisome for the Keys and South Fla. east and west and --d forbid the Gulg.

I'm still on the fence about putting up the shutters I just purchased in the pouring rain this morning....I"m really leaning towards....just put em' up. What's the worst that can happen? I (we) in SoEFla get spared and I get practice...I'll take it!

Edited by native (Fri Sep 05 2008 08:55 PM)


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Current motion [Re: watchinout]
      #84202 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:10 PM

Quote:

Been looking at models, tracks, and graphs and adding it together with what some of yall are saying and it looks like theres a possibility of Ike passing through the Florida Straits into the Gulf and making a curve into or near the Cedar Key area . Wondering what the rest of you think?




Way to early to say yet for you - you have time - just have materials in line and be ready. My final prep day is tomorrow morning but I'm in the FL Keys. But I have everything I need - for water, food, evac, gas, generator check, home concacts, .. etc .... just get prepared.


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Current motion [Re: MichaelA]
      #84203 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:22 PM

Hi - haven't seen that one yet (updated HWRF) - we (I) depend so much on Cuba this time of year. - thanks

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Current motion [Re: docrod]
      #84205 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:29 PM

Quote:

Hi - haven't seen that one yet (updated HWRF) - we (I) depend so much on Cuba this time of year. - thanks




Good grief, that is a HUGE change for me. I expect a long night and long Saturday. - again - thanks for pointing that out - Rod


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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
Re: Current motion [Re: docrod]
      #84211 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:40 PM

Cone is huge. What do you think the odds of it swinging North to Jacksonville are? I know it sounds silly, but everyone said Fay was heading out into the Gulf. Practically went over the top of my house. Luckily, it wasn't that strong, which is why I like living inland.

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter


Edited by GlenJohnson (Fri Sep 05 2008 10:43 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 377
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Current motion [Re: native]
      #84212 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:49 PM

Quote:

I'm still on the fence about putting up the shutters I just purchased in the pouring rain this morning....I"m really leaning towards....just put em' up. What's the worst that can happen? I (we) in SoEFla get spared and I get practice...I'll take it!




I put up the shutters for Charlie and he swung inland missing me....after I hacked my way to my parents partially destroyed house, it didn't bother me a bit that I had put up the shutters for nothing!! I think you have the right idea.....just put them up...time yourself so you know your window in the future and count your blessings if it was a complete waste of time!! If this thing gets to the key and still aimed at us in the cone...and is level 3/4, I will put mine up guaranteed. (I can do it in 2 hours!!!)

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #84213 - Fri Sep 05 2008 11:05 PM

Well things are looking much improved for all of you folks in Florida (not the keys, they are probably still going to get atleast some of Ike), but the latest advisory shifts the track south and west again. The forecast discussion says most of the reliable models take Ike down near or over the north coast of Cuba. The 4-5 day track has also shifted more westward to point more towards the central gulf, and the discussion says it could be moved more west again as we progress over the next day or two. The next recon flight is scheduled to get to Ike near 1 am CDT (2am EDT) , so that data will give us some more information.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84222 - Fri Sep 05 2008 11:45 PM

IKE's impact of anything north of Palm beach looks pretty slim to none right now, but things can change.The ridge is forecasted to be stronger and thats been the assumption by the ECMWF and GFDL, but now the GFS has come along with the UKmet. If this trend continues until Sats 12Z run then its impact on Floridas east coast will be gone except the Keys.

Never underestimate the GFDL when a system is developed. Its accuracy rate is very high and was the only model just 24hrs ago that predicted a path near Cuba or into the NW Carribean. I wont make a projected landfall until Saturday. Right now my guess is that there is none in S Florida, except maybe the Keys. I Dont think the west coast of Florida will get much at all except down near Naples. Anyways things can change, but they are changing for a more and more west movement.


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coastal worried
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: scottsvb]
      #84223 - Fri Sep 05 2008 11:53 PM

local Tampa weatherguy had the following concern: IKE passes the Keys and then slows down and basically loses it's steering currents. At this point, speculation on his part, it could possibly get pulled by a trough to the North East, impacting the West Coast of Florida.....anybody see this playing out....

www.spaghettimodels.com

seems to show a lot of models making a sharp turn Northeast across west central florida???

Comments? Thoughts??


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Current motion [Re: coastal worried]
      #84224 - Fri Sep 05 2008 11:57 PM

right now that is speculation. There is a 10% chance it will do that and the same chance it will head towards Texas.He must of been looking at old models data from todays 12Z earlier.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Current motion [Re: scottsvb]
      #84227 - Sat Sep 06 2008 02:48 AM

These model have been moving all over the place from west then shifting back to east. By tomorrow night into sunday we will have a better handle on these models. This track is all going to depend on that trough of low pressure coming from the west. Will it weaken the ridge enough for ike to make a nw turn and then possible ne turn ? thats my first scenario for this storm. Or would the high stay in place and drive ike to the west all the way into the gulf ? thats my second scenario. Here the trough postion where it suppose to be by at least monday http://www.accuweather.com/maps-surface....c&fday=48hr So in a way i do think ike is going to feel a weakening in the high pressure and some one from the panhandle to the west coast of florida is going to get this storm. These are my early predictions. Land fall point still to early to tell

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84231 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:59 AM

as of now, like the front page of the CFHC says. dont concentrate on that center line. when we are out of that cone i can worry less. and everyone who is talking about the two high preassure systems are correct. there is a slight moment of oppourtunity for ike to make a north turn early. however it is a race against the clock. if the 2 highs meet it will form a wall and the storm will continue west. if ike beats it before the 2 systems meet it will give ike all the chance it needs to make a right turn. lets just watch it today. warnings have been issued so we got our 3 hour updates

Edited by Evan McCone (Sat Sep 06 2008 08:01 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Current motion [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84232 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:05 AM

It looks as if good ole Hanna is actually effecting the depth of the high as it digs SW on its east side and how quickly the short wave coming from the west will erode the west side and how deep that will be. I guess the faster Hanna pulls NE will impact how deep the ridge will dig by tending to flatten it out the further north it goes. IKE is located just east of the apex of a very sharp point on that ridge, and the steering just west of that point is definitely wnw. As Hanna pulls out that should make the whole area a little more east to west. That could happen today before IKE actually impacts Cuba. My unskillful observations also suggest that the west side of the high will erode into the middle GOM as the trough approaches from the west. This poses a definite issue for recurvature as it increasingly seems IKE will bypass south Florida. But I am not comforted by that. I don't see IKE as a middle Gulf coast storm but more likely something east of the Mississippi River. This definitely has my attention in west central Florida as there is nothing more ominous than a strong storm being SW of our area with a probability of a future NE track.

--------------------
doug


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84233 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:06 AM

From the 8am update:
ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.



South Florida is still very much in the cone.Looks BETTER for us this morning,but as we all know there will be changes to the track and the models.He is still well to the south east of Florida.Given the wide cone,the NHC is not all that confident in it's forecast.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: coastal worried]
      #84235 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:09 AM

It is simply too early to tell where Ike may end up along the US Gulf Coast. Needless to say, ANY location from Florida to Texas is a possibility. The current NHC track brings Ike into the eastern GOM in four to five days. The margin of error for this time range is significant.

The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. In this case, a severely weakened Ike would probably make it farther west than currently forecast. If Ike remains mostly over open water to the north or south of Cuba, then everything depends on the strength and orientation of the high pressure system to Ike's north. I'm inclined to believe that Ike will pass over, or to the south, of Cuba. The high pressure system over the western Atlantic really seems to be nudging Ike to the SW this morning.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84236 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:10 AM

look at the current GFS animated model. it has ike going into the gulf, then a pressure system moving in from the NW pushing ike back ene towards florida... interesting stuff here.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008090606&field=850mb+Theta-E&hour=Animation

Edited by Evan McCone (Sat Sep 06 2008 08:13 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84240 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:30 AM

As a Tampa resident, I dont think its coming to Tampa until it actually Does.! Tampa hasnt been hit directly since 1938 I think? I have to double check on that.I'm not saying this wont but like alot of people in the Tampa-Sarasota area, tooooo many times has the path a of hurricane suppose to track over you (within 24hrs) and the last minute it moves east of you or up to the panahandle. Of course everyone should prepare, but optimisum reigns supreme in this area.

The models shifted back some on the 6z run to the east and has a potential Florida impact on the west coast or the panhandle. Still thats 4-5days out. We need consistant runs. 12Z are next and the question is, what will they do.

I'll give my 3 day forecast later today and sunday I'll make my landfall prediction unless its more than 3 days out.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: scottsvb]
      #84241 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:52 AM

exactly, models, and projected paths right now are sloppy at best. as others have said the NHC isnt entirely sure what the heck is going on at this moment. that is displayed by their cone of error. too many people put their trust in that line. and i dont blame you its the National Hurricane Center. but you know when they are unsure, and you should be as well.

as all of us here (or most of us here) all know being florida residents we must rely on the dreaded "multiple possibility scenario". following weather here is stressful and tenious at best. but we have all been through this drill with long range storms. 3 or 4 factors always come into play and the long range storms are never surefire. we have a frontal boundry here, we have a pressure system there, the cone can be highly unstable, so can the projected path. we should all be used to this by now.

due to the fact the NHC has clearly stated they are not sure of this path. i will continue to worry as if this storm will hit impact anywhere in the cone. too many factors come into play to be making hot shot projections and panicing people more than they already are.

i feel bad for the bahamas, but their hurricane warnings gives us a better idea for storm prep due to 3 hour updates.


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jf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Current motion [Re: scottsvb]
      #84242 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:52 AM

Ikes decent to the south south west is slowing and even though its speed has not slowed IKE will not reach the NHC plotted points at the 11AM update. If this trend continues the models will have a slight move to the east and maybe north. Every degree LON/LAT is critical to Florida. From the readings coming from the high pressure system to the north of IKE it seems as though there is a 50/50 chance of the high weakening just a little and allowing IKE to move more westerly before it decides whether to go into the Gulf to Cuba or Florida.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Current motion [Re: jf]
      #84244 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:02 AM

west florida coast is absolutely in play, along with the whole gulf....again, imo, the NHC has done a good job withn the bigger storms, they stuck with their projection for 3 days with Gustav, while others said west towards the tex border and east towards mobile...their track record on the larger storms has been very good...the GFDL and GFS are keeping very close to the west coast of FL, but again, 4 days out....nobody knows

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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