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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Current motion [Re: doug]
      #84245 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:02 AM

Quote:

It looks as if good ole Hanna is actually effecting the depth of the high




Ike will slide along Cuba's coastline. If the eye is given a choice.

Gulfport to the Florabama Border as a Large Cat 3.
Hurricanes tend to avoid each other's "Ghost" track. Again, if given a choice. and West of NO won't be an option.

IMHO.
James


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Current motion [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84251 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:23 AM

24 hours ago many of the models had Ike coming into SF,24 hours later they have shifted south.24 hours from now who knows.He is still 3 1/2 to 4 days away.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Sep 06 2008 09:24 AM)


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84252 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:25 AM

if everyone will notice, the SFWMD models are loose again, and some of them are shifting north again. surprisignly the GFDL which is always preety reliable has it making a sharp northern turn grazing the west coast. is this northern trend something that everybody will follow as the day goes on? what do they know that we dont?

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Current motion [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #84254 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:30 AM

The models have under estimated the strength & position of the high to the north from the get go... thus with every update Ike moves south. As Hanna pulls out the ridge is filling in behind her very quickly, thus Ike's chance of reaching South FL becomes less and less with each passing hour. With such a small core a brush with Cuba would weaken him, but if his eye can stay just off the coast that will not occur. In addition tracking as far south as the NHC projects now the Keys might only get TS level winds due to the small wind field. Dade & Broward will feel almost the same effects we got from Hanna. The front sliding across the US from the west has gotten a bit deeper and pretty soon its going to be over FL which will close the door on Ike's window to turn NW over the state forcing him into the GOM. Once again just keep an eye of forecast position versus the NHC's projected path, it should very easy to see when (and if) Ike makes any unpredicted movement during the Monday time frame that changes the situation.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: JMII]
      #84260 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:03 AM

I have to agree completely with you JMII, every single forecast discussion has talked about how the track continues to shift west and south and may need to shift more that way in future tracks as well. NHC has been taking the northern and eastern side of the track consensus to be on the safe side for Florida and with Ike moving as far south as he has this morning and is continuing that way, I doubt that he will be able to pick up on the ridge weakness since Hanna is moving so quickly now. Hanna is pulling the ridge out with her and she will be gone before the weekend is over and Ike won't be near Cuba until Monday.

The other thing is, if you look at the models they all expect Ike's size to gain considerably over the next 2-3 days, so don't count the keys out of the stronger winds even if Ike does dip down right along Cuba.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84265 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:24 AM

Curiously, looking at the 12Z newer runs of the BAMD, am slightly confused as to the odd shift to the north from previous runs??? Am looking at steering flow levels, and although the overall strong mid-Atlantic ridge may be slowly retreating eastward with time, cannot see any reason for Ike to not basically travel west ( or perhaps slightly north of west ) while grazing the Cuban coast. Any thoughts on what the BAMD might be seeing with regards to any weakness? Will be curious to see if later 12Z runs of the EURO and UK equally adjust there tracks slightly more northward too, or simply maintain a steadfast westward motion well into the Gulf and well south of the lower Keys, as their previous model runs have indicated.

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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84266 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:26 AM

I also agree - the sat tracks over the last three hours appear to be showing the center south of the forecast track. At 13:15 UTC the eye already looks to be south of the 18:00 forecast position. I would expect the next update to include another shift south of the near-term track guidance and possibly moving the track over Cuba out through near 72 hours. I can even see how this could end up on the south side of Cuba and then follow in Gus' recent path.

It's early but we northern GOM folks need to be watching this over the next few days.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: EBinTX]
      #84267 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:38 AM

actually, looking at the past 24 hours of GOES-E sat loops, it looks to be going WAY south of the forecast projections. this is odd i dont even think any the models called for this strong southward movement. heck, i wouldnt be surprised if next update they have this thing moving SW it almost looks like it on the IR.

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EMS
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84270 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:57 AM

Hard to see the center with the eye clouded over, but the last couple of frames on the visible satellite seem to indicate a due west movement. Could be just a wobble. If it's not, the threat to South Florida is potentially higher.

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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84271 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:58 AM

the 11am EDT is out...

...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA.

Along with this more southern track though comes more weakening from being either over, or near, Cuba. Although the gulf is expected to strengthen Ike back up quickly because of the warmth of the water. The track is set at 255 degrees still, so still WSW. The discussion again specifies how the models are distinctly split into two camps right now, one that believes the ridge over the SE will stay far enough north to keep Ike moving WNW, and the other that predicts Ike will turn north into the ridge...


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84272 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:02 AM

well lets all review the current wind steering flow currents that are layered. this should help give us some sort of idea. if everyone will notice, the GFS that had ike going into the gulf and recurving, probably got it off of the futures of the wind currents, it shows a enviroment to produce that.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

everybody check it and lets discuss it.


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84278 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:18 AM

that's actually one of the things that makes the models so hard to get accurate...they are basically creating a model using model data, and if the model data is inaccurate, then the resulting model will be inaccurate also.

So basically the GFS is using the future model that was just posted, and that model is assuming that the ridge that Hanna is part of will be creating a northerly flow weakness in the high pressure over Florida. So this still fits into one of the two camps of scenarios that are possibilities at this point. Over the next 24 hours, as we see how quickly Hanna moves out and pulls the ridge with it, we will see if Ikes south movement takes it to far to follow this or not.


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: weathernet]
      #84284 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:32 AM

The BAMD is based on the upper level wind information provided by the GFS. So the northward shift of the 12Z BAMD gives us a hint at the GFS's latest prediction for the upper level steering flow. The GFS, HWRF, GFDL, and NOGAPS now predict that the ridge north of Ike will be sufficiently weakened by the shortwave that will move through the eastern US to induce a more northwest to northward turn in a couple days. We'll have to wait and see if the models persist with this scenario, and if the others come aboard. If Ike is severely weakened by a long trip over Cuba, then the future path will still likely be farther west. Let's wait and see...

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Current motion [Re: Ronn]
      #84288 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:56 AM

exactly..both the GFDL and GFS were off by large margins 2 days out on Gustav, with the GFDL off by about 200 miles....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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finz
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: pcola]
      #84293 - Sat Sep 06 2008 12:53 PM

it looks like to me that the high pressure is weakening and ike will possible make a more west north turn over florida.....Right now it looks like its moving about due west which will make it off course of the projected path....And the models have it going more north then the previous models.....what do you guys think

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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Current motion [Re: Ronn]
      #84297 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:10 PM

Quote:

...
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...




There has been quite a bit of talk about relying on Cuba to weaken the storm. Common sense would lead us to believe this, the Mets like to talk of this, and to a minute degree it is true, Cuba can have some disruptive effects on a TS or Hurricane.

But all available data show the effect is transitory at best and non-existent at worst.. A storm's interaction with Cuba his little to no long term effect on its' strength at an eventual mainland strike.

If you study the historical data of every storm that ever traversed cuba, either along the spine, across the mountains, on a diagonal path, or just a glancing blow, only two in 90 years of historical data were actually weakened enough to be considered "shredded" and both of these were able to regain their pre-cuba strength.

1. Inez who bounced along Cuba's southern coast before making a diagonal crossing for four days at approx. 5mph. She was reduced from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 after four days of interaction over Cuba's land mass. And even she managed to eventually strengthen to a Cat 4, although slowly.

2. Dennis was reduced from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 within 24 hours of crossing Cuba. However, after exiting Cuba, within 24 hours his windspeed recovered to 145mph and Cat 4 status.

Many have managed to INCREASE intensity while crossing Cuba, see Frederick, Charley, Georges, Elena, King, Baker, Alma, Isbell, Hilda, #741 1948, #723 1946.

Most have managed to MAINTAIN intensity while crossing Cuba, see Lili, Cleo, Easy, #740 1948, #707 1944, #604 1933, #547 1926, #622 1935,

A few were weakened, but this was a temporary effect. ALL but Inez were able to regain their former strength within just 24 hours, most within 12 hours.

So the "Cuba Effect" while interesting, has had little to no ability to permanently reduce a hurricane's strength below it's pre-cuba status.

It is possible that Cuba has "saved" the mainland USA from a few strikes that might have been slightly stronger had they not interacted with Cuba, but that's conjecture. Historical data shows Cuba is a road bump, not a show stopper.

Note: I only studied storms that were Cat 3 and higher at any point during their development, not necessarily while near Cuba or at landfall. Their intensities near Cuba ranged from TD to Cat 4.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Current motion [Re: Bev]
      #84302 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:26 PM

The 12Z GFS trends toward a panhandle scenario.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: Bev]
      #84304 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:43 PM

Quote:

Quote:

...
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...




There has been quite a bit of talk about relying on Cuba to weaken the storm. Common sense would lead us to believe this, the Mets like to talk of this, and to a minute degree it is true, Cuba can have some disruptive effects on a TS or Hurricane.

But all available data show the effect is transitory at best and non-existent at worst.. A storm's interaction with Cuba his little to no long term effect on its' strength at an eventual mainland strike.

If you study the historical data of every storm that ever traversed cuba, either along the spine, across the mountains, on a diagonal path, or just a glancing blow, only two in 90 years of historical data were actually weakened enough to be considered "shredded" and both of these were able to regain their pre-cuba strength.

1. Inez who bounced along Cuba's southern coast before making a diagonal crossing for four days at approx. 5mph. She was reduced from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 after four days of interaction over Cuba's land mass. And even she managed to eventually strengthen to a Cat 4, although slowly.

2. Dennis was reduced from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 within 24 hours of crossing Cuba. However, after exiting Cuba, within 24 hours his windspeed recovered to 145mph and Cat 4 status.

Many have managed to INCREASE intensity while crossing Cuba, see Frederick, Charley, Georges, Elena, King, Baker, Alma, Isbell, Hilda, #741 1948, #723 1946.

Most have managed to MAINTAIN intensity while crossing Cuba, see Lili, Cleo, Easy, #740 1948, #707 1944, #604 1933, #547 1926, #622 1935,

A few were weakened, but this was a temporary effect. ALL but Inez were able to regain their former strength within just 24 hours, most within 12 hours.

So the "Cuba Effect" while interesting, has had little to no ability to permanently reduce a hurricane's strength below it's pre-cuba status.

It is possible that Cuba has "saved" the mainland USA from a few strikes that might have been slightly stronger had they not interacted with Cuba, but that's conjecture. Historical data shows Cuba is a road bump, not a show stopper.

Note: I only studied storms that were Cat 3 and higher at any point during their development, not necessarily while near Cuba or at landfall. Their intensities near Cuba ranged from TD to Cat 4.




As can be easily seen from this plot of Ikes projected path.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=09&av=20089613

He comes off cuba as a cat 1 and very quickly regains strength to cat 3 atleast.

Also, I still believe that Hanna is going to pull the impending ridge too quickly to the East for Ike to latch onto it. If you look at the time lines of Hanna and Ike, Hanna will be way back out to the Atlantic by Tues. at 8 am, and Ike will just then be reaching the point where the northward turn is supposed to occur


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84308 - Sat Sep 06 2008 02:03 PM

Quote:


As can be easily seen from this plot of Ikes projected path.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=09&av=20089613

He comes off cuba as a cat 1 and very quickly regains strength to cat 3 atleast.

Also, I still believe that Hanna is going to pull the impending ridge too quickly to the East for Ike to latch onto it. If you look at the time lines of Hanna and Ike, Hanna will be way back out to the Atlantic by Tues. at 8 am, and Ike will just then be reaching the point where the northward turn is supposed to occur




Statistics support Ike at Cat 3 at 96 hours rather than Cat 2. Only Inez took more than 24 hours to restrengthen, and she was busy doing an about face and heading back the way she came, obviously dealing with less than ideal conditions. Ike doesn't appear to be facing the the same unfavorable conditions.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: Bev]
      #84313 - Sat Sep 06 2008 02:50 PM

anybody happen to notice on GOES-E the slight jog northward? is it me staring at this thing all morning after and night or do i see that? check out 12:15 UTC - 17:45 UTC. could that pressure system be pulling it slightly?

Edited by Evan McCone (Sat Sep 06 2008 02:52 PM)


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