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#98L continues pushing inland Deep S. TX. Heavy, banding precip with gusts to Trop Storm force along the S. TX coast currently underway.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 350 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1404 (Michael) Major: 1404 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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jf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84316 - Sat Sep 06 2008 02:58 PM

IKe has expended its wind field to the north as well as begin to move more west than west south west. The high to the north has pressures in the southern portion that are lower than earlier today . I'm not sure how that will affect IKE in the short term. Anyone care to guess ???

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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84317 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:04 PM

I am watching the 1700 UTC - 1845 UTC and I still see WSW for me...

Also something to note, three more models on the Skeetobite model plot here have Ike taking a direct west turn now on their 18Z track. They may be picking up the ridge that Hanna is pulling East now instead of leaving it where Ike can pick it up


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84327 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:49 PM

Latest wind steering current has come out. check it out

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

looks like that gap for ike to flow north has closed.


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84329 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:01 PM

I agree and I think we will see that reflected in a pretty good westerly shift in the tracks. It may take until the 11pm EDT update tonight before we see this propogated to all the different models, but I think it will occur.

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84331 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:04 PM

slowly, i think they might be getting a handle on what this storm might be doing. all of the models are in agreement up until it gets into the gulf. then they are uncertain. im sure that cone will shift westward with further updates. while not completely satisfied (i dont think anyone is) nothing short of some sort of crazy scenario, do i think that this storm will impact the east coast of florida.

...but then again this is the atlantic basin

Edited by Evan McCone (Sat Sep 06 2008 04:08 PM)


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coastal worried
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #84333 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:10 PM

is the west coast of Florida (Tampa) in particular off the hook yet? This thing looks like New Orleans all over it!!

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Current motion [Re: coastal worried]
      #84335 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:18 PM

nothing from tx to fl is off the hook...not by a longshot

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: coastal worried]
      #84338 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:20 PM

while I wouldn't say that any point is particularly out of the woods with this yet, I would say that if Ike does follow fairly closely to the path that is laid out at this point (getting to the mid-GOM in other words) I think he will be turned west becuase of the high pressure center that will be in place over the northern GOM, this would take NOLA out of the question, but extreme western LA to anywhere on the Texas Coast would then be in the path.

Again, this is just conjecture on my part.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84344 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:48 PM

IF Ike does turn into a high cat 4 or 5,before it gets into Cuba,won't that posssible change the track.There is the polar effect,and could change the conditions around it.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84345 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:58 PM

well the 5pm is out and he is cat 4 again...all of the models except one now show the ridge passing Ike to the north, thus keeping Ike on a west or WNW path across the GOM. There was a slight southern shift in the path, but other than that, not much change right now.

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84355 - Sat Sep 06 2008 06:26 PM

The NHC track has Ike pointed almost exactly at New Orleans for the last 24 hours or so. Does that not reflect a strong probability that Ike will end up somewhere near New Orleans?

What are the reasons for hoping that Ike might change course (and, if there are any such reasons, why is the NHC not taking them into account?)?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #84357 - Sat Sep 06 2008 06:39 PM

Well because it is the 5 day forecast that is pointed right at it, it is still very inaccurate pass the "white" part of the forecast track, it could very easily go either East or West of that. However, the NHC likes to err on the side of caution and wait until they can know for sure before making any definite path changes. It does seem though that the opportunity for Ike to take the more north or WNW direction the NHC currently has in place has passed due to the weakness in the high pressure center over the gulf staying to far north. This will probably make the high pressure center push the path further to the west. I suspect the NHC is waiting until the last of their main models to update more to the western path before adjusting their official forecast.

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84360 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:24 PM

What's your guess on the current threat level for New Orleans? Do you know if they are already planning for yet another evacuation? Has Nagin made any statements?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #84364 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:33 PM

I think it's still too early for them to have said anything about that. It's still about 6-7 days away from hitting in NOLA if that's the direction it chooses. We should get some more good information in about 30 minutes with their next update.

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coastal worried
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84366 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:44 PM

live on the coast of Pinellas County. Looks like this thing is going to blow by to my west. What do I need to be looking for to say "uh oh" looks like this thing might have a chance to come my way? Slow speed? Front from the midwest? What will make this thing turn and possibly come my way...otherwise...I'm checking out the NFL for the next two days and putting this thing to bed on it's current path!!

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Taz16
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Re: Current motion [Re: coastal worried]
      #84368 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:56 PM

Right now the trend with the models is west. The data from the Gulfstream jet will give us a better idea. If the front is strong it could have a role if ike turns n or nne or ne. Time will tell.

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Current motion [Re: Taz16]
      #84372 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:14 PM

Hi - I found the link regarding storm surge predictions if anyone is interested

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/

It's experimental and the storm needs to be within 24hours of a predicted landfall.

- take care


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Current motion [Re: Taz16]
      #84373 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:35 PM

Everybody in the gulf coast really needs to keep an eye on this catagory 4 monster i should say. The latest computer models have this going as far west as new orleans. I dont see in anyway how this is going to turn out as a trough of low pressure is going to come from central plains. Here what one meteorologist thinks about the storms path !!!


I personally have a hard time believing a storm that is at this latitude (already at 23 north) will go west through the Gulf in September. And with the trough already into the central Plains, I have to believe Ike will be tugged on to steer it more and more toward the north over time.

Of course, there's the complicating factor that suggests the trough will lift enough so that it never really can grab Ike. But that suggests to me more of a stall tactic, rather than an aggressive move to the west. Still, it is an option and, until we get more agreement in the modeling, or the atmosphere shows its hand, so to speak, all options have to be left open, my leanings notwithstanding!


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hogrunr
Unregistered




Re: Current motion [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84374 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:42 PM

The problem with that quote from that Met is that it is from yesterday or the day before...The storm is now at 21 N, not 23, and with Ike being this far south, he will not be affected by the ridge coming across the US. Ever single model now, including the GFDL (was the lone dissenter at the last update) has Ike taking a left run as he approaches the mid GOM and heading due West, the NHC should have their track updated to follow suit as of the 11pm update.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Current motion [Re: hogrunr]
      #84376 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:19 PM

last night GFS was heading to ls..today at Tampa..tonight to central LA then a sharpo NE turn..4-5 day models are not in agreement..whole gulf is involved

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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