MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
This is the lounge for TD#10 (Josephine), right now I think the most likely fate of this is the classic fish spinner, but there are some models bending it back more west, the is also leaning toward moving more west, so the jury is still out .
Edited by John C (Tue Sep 02 2008 02:05 PM)
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Just thought I open up this lounge and say Josephine's rements are still out there around 17.5 N and 58W as of Weds afternoon. Some models want to pick up on her but its pretty iffy right now. She has a flare up enhanced by the upper low to her west. If she can gain more convection and get a better defined circulation in a day or 2, she might be a threat to the bahamas!
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Josephine or 91L heading to Florida. Now in what strength, its hard to tell. Most models have a strong wave- a moderate tropical storm. Alot of dry air might be a problem for this to become more, but not sure yet.
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
What models are you looking at? What I can find shows two going south of FL (maybe one grazing the tip) and two out to sea.
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Um,, , ,GFDL,HRWF,Nogaps,Ukmet, and most dynamical models! LOL, now again, most have this as a strong wave, some show up to a moderate T.S ala (ships,GEM)
|
Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
|
|
I hope they keep the name Josephine! I have been watching this area and well id say there is 50% of her contribution. The developing part that is. Had there been no wave to entrain i think the remants would not have fired back. Further there is the argument well had there been no remanints then the wave would have developed so pick your poision.
|
jessiej
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
|
|
The Tropical Cyclone Model Output Maps site is showing Invest 91 as a Low Pressure System. See attached.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/
--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
Well, that really nails the track. I guess we're going to have to wait awhile for anything definitive.
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
DianneT
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
Loc: Davenport, FL, USA
|
|
Hi! I'm new here. Here's my question. Since Josephine was once a TS and then not a TS, if she forms again, will she still have the name Josephine or the next name on the list? Thanks! 
|
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
|
|
i dont believe the storm will. once it leaves status of a tropical storm and the center stops tracking it and it comes back it will most likely be issued a new name. so long as ike is still lurking this new tropical low will be a weather-maker for florida. latest wind steering product here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF . i personally dont think there is a enough time for this thing to get any stronger then a tropical depression, but who knows.
Edited by Evan McCone (Fri Sep 12 2008 08:32 AM)
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
This area showing a bit of interesting convection firing today. Looking at the models for this, it could head right across Florida. I know all attention is focused on IKE, but does anyone have a read on whether this is going to develop/expand/stay the same?
--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
|
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
|
|
right now it looks like the leftovers of josephine are having a hard time of doing much of anything. there is no forward movement right now it is kind of lurking which can be a bad thing if it were somewhat organized however, that is not the case. i will be watching it all day to see if it musters up enough steam to stay organized and begin a westwardly or north westardly movement whatsoever.
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Upper Low has been hindering this for days now. The ULL never went SW as predicted by the . Chance of this becoming a TD is less than 10% in the near term.
|
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
|
|
only one model has this thing spinning up into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. the closest it will get is borderline tropical depression before it makes any kind of landfall. id sooner concentrate on the area of showers out to the east that actually have time to develope into something.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
