craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Those wind speeds are not inflated looks like Hanna is back up to hurricane force:
Time:
18:06:00Z
Coordinates:
20.5833N 72.1W
Acft. Static Air Press:
842.7 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,438 meters (~ 4,718 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
997.0 mb (~ 29.44 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 159° at 51 knots (From the SSE at ~ 58.6 mph)
Air Temp:
13.3°C (~ 55.9°F)
Dew Pt:
13.3°C (~ 55.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
51 knots (~ 58.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
100 knots (~ 115.0 mph)--- Not sure why SFC winds are higher than flight level but the data is not suspect, there are several more readings confirming these wind speeds
SFMR Rain Rate:
13 mm/hr (~ 0.51 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Tue Sep 02 2008 02:25 PM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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There is some kind of glitch with recon surface wind data shortly after this reading they stopped reporting surface wind data:
Time:
18:10:30Z
Coordinates:
20.5833N 71.8667W
Acft. Static Air Press:
844.8 mb (~ 24.95 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,425 meters (~ 4,675 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
997.1 mb (~ 29.44 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 152° at 58 knots (From the SSE at ~ 66.7 mph)
Air Temp:
14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Dew Pt:
14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
105 knots* (~ 120.7 mph*) SFMR Rain Rate:
0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Don't believe the SFMR wind readings... they are so far out of line with the central pressure, flight-level winds, satellite presentation, and pretty much everything else we know about Hanna as to be completely unbelievable. The QC flag (I believe) is based on rain rate, but the fact that it is not being tripped with some of those bad obs does not mean there is nothing wrong with the instrument.
If we used the traditional reduction from flight-level winds, intensity would be estimated at 45-50 kts (with the caveat that not all quadrants have been sampled yet). SLP of 985 mb would suggest something around its current listed intensity (60 kts).
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Sep 02 2008 02:53 PM)
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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The center fixes show, that it´s continuing to move southeastward! When does a turn come? Will it be blown into Hispaniola?
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Hanna's quite the interesting storm -- atypical development, ingestion of an upper low, acquiring subtropical elements, prolonged intense convective burst in the face of Gustav-enhanced shear, and today weakening in the face of that shear. What changed today versus yesterday? Most likely the orientation of the shear and the location of a deformation axis, or area where winds come to an axis and "deform" in all directions on either side of it. Yesterday, it was in a highly diffluent area along the deformation axis, but today the upper trough along the east coast has dug a bit further south and pushed that axis away. Hanna is left in an area of weakened steering currents, waiting for the pattern to change slightly, only moving as the center continues to try to redevelop underneath the convection. Since the convection redevelops downshear, the center moves (or reforms) south. Eventually this will end and Hanna should move to the NW, paralleling or running along the FL east coast before landfall in the southeast US, but it's not going to end today.
Ike behind it is chugging along westward underneath a ridge that keeps progressing westward with it. As Ike nears Hanna, the pattern should begin to change and keep the two far enough apart from any significant interaction, but given the large size of Hanna's circulation it's not out of the realm of possibility that northerly shear from Hanna ends up impacting Ike, especially if Hanna moves slower than forecast. Otherwise, conditions appear fairly ripe for Ike with the 11a discussion doing a great job of some of the factors at play. There is a bit of uncertainty in the long-range steering patterns, an uncertainty that only increases if Hanna doesn't start moving as it is possible that the storm could help lift Ike further northward. That's being discounted right now given the lack of evidence in the model forecasts, but it's not impossible.
Josephine's likely a fish. package looks good there, with intensity leveling off in a couple of days as it nears cooler waters. Near-Africa waters in the Atlantic are running above normal for the first time in a few seasons, helping to fuel these storms so far east.
The next wave over Africa is very well organized already and stands a chance at developing in 2-3 days after moving over the open Atlantic. Several models suggest this to occur, developing a fairly intense storm for such easterly latitudes. While that is probably a bit over done, it's quite likely that we've got another storm to deal with before the end of the week. 'Tis the season for such activity -- and we're still over a week away from the peak of the season. Eventually we'll quiet down, but we probably have another week left in this run.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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What is your best guess: how long will we have to wait until we can put some confidence in the 's predicted path for Hanna?
Thanks,
VS
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole, Helene, Milton
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I'm not answering for Clark but this excerpt from the 5:00 says it all. If the official forecast track verifies in the short term, and I think this will happen in the next 24hrs, everyone along the east coast from S Florida to the Carolinas needs to prepare at least for the west side (weak side) of a Cat 1- Cat 2 hurricane --- any small deviation in the track could significantly change the impact level in your area. I sound like Mister Obvious don't I. Here is some back up to my post that I should have included, see attachment..
HOWEVER...UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A
MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. IN ADDITION...THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF
APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL. IN FACT...THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT
EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.
This post not meant to sound alarmist
Edited by craigm (Tue Sep 02 2008 06:34 PM)
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Tammster
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: West Palm Beach, FL
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It just occurred to me that some portions of Florida may soon be in the 5-day cone for 2 storms at once, depending on how fast Ike moves (and of course how slow Hanna moves).
I don't remember this happening recently...
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Oddly becoming some sort of possibility..
you know 2 days before the 1926 Miami Hurricane Hit... a lost tropical storm similar to this passed by
didn't pan out and then the 26 storm came
NOT saying that is happening, just hit me similar
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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TWO storms at the same time? Somehow I doubt that would be possible since they would interact with each other greatly. Hanna should be out to sea by the time Ike arrives. Both will likely impact parts of Florida, it appears, but... hopefully.... not at the same time.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Scott3294
Registered User
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Posts: 5
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If you play connect the dots, the 72 hour position is off of Jacksonville and then the 96 hour position is in Virginia. If you draw a straight line from one to the other, the storm stays off shore until it impacts Charleston..this is a Northward track (almost NNE).
Am I correct in my thinking that actually the storm will not move straight (point to point) but more of a curved path that may bring the storm into Georgia as it moves through Friday night into Saturday????
All of this is of course based on current forecasting which we all know can vary greatly over three days.
Thanks
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Quote:
What is your best guess: how long will we have to wait until we can put some confidence in the 's predicted path for Hanna?
Thanks,
VS
Ultimately, the track is the one in which you can place most confidence in. When Hanna starts moving, things will be a lot clearer, but in the interim there's no reason not to trust and have confidence in the track. The old adage says to always be prepared for a storm 1 category of intensity higher than forecast; it stands to follow that you should also be prepared for a storm 1 day sooner than forecast.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Quote:
If you play connect the dots, the 72 hour position is off of Jacksonville and then the 96 hour position is in Virginia. If you draw a straight line from one to the other, the storm stays off shore until it impacts Charleston..this is a Northward track (almost NNE).
Am I correct in my thinking that actually the storm will not move straight (point to point) but more of a curved path that may bring the storm into Georgia as it moves through Friday night into Saturday????
All of this is of course based on current forecasting which we all know can vary greatly over three days.
Thanks
It is likely that there will be a little bit of curvature to the track that a straight line simply cannot account for, but not a large amount. But -- don't focus on the track line itself! Track errors in the 72-84 hr time frame are over a couple of hundred of miles. All of the eastern seaboard is well within the cone of error with Hanna's forecast track and that is what everyone should focus upon. Thus, prepare as though the storm will hit, even if it misses just to the east or well to the east.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Tammster
Registered User
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Loc: West Palm Beach, FL
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I don't think two storms will hit at the same time... but I think it's definitely possible for parts of Florida to be in two separate 5-day cones at the same time.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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I think it's too early to speculate where and what Ike will be in 6-7 days. Hanna obviously will keep us all on our toes. Personally, I am keeping an eye on her, but not panicking.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I don't think two storms will hit at the same time... but I think it's definitely possible for parts of Florida to be in two separate 5-day cones at the same time.
Sorry I misread the earlier post. Not only is that possible, it's probable, tomorrow or Thursday. Ike's 5-day cone will likely include the SE portion of the state by then, and Hanna will likely still be around, too. In that case, we would have the same portion of the state in two separate 5-day cones at the same time. The "follow the leader" scenario outlined by some models a few days ago is playing itself out, it would seem.
Edit: Just looked at the tropical storm force wind potential graphics on site..The entire South Atlantic Ocean is just about in a cone for tropical storm force winds in the next 5 days, from Cape Verde, west to Florida.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Sep 02 2008 08:01 PM)
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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The 8pm advisory states that Hannah is drifting EAST, is this a typo or is she actually moving EAST?? Confirmation appreciated. An eastbound hurricane is a new one for me. 
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc:
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My question is, and I apologize if this is the wrong forum to ask, but could Ike follow Hanna as she opens up a path?
Like following in the wake of a boat where the water is smoother?
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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east...
check out wv loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
you can see the V diving down and it seems to lift Hanna a drop to the east.. imagine we can call it a loop and will loop back??
also... we could have 2 storms but one would more likely be stronger than the other
conditions change, every storm is different
miami weather radio has "tropical storm force winds possible" playing
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl
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Hanna looks, to me, like a big mess. Almost like she is being torn in half. Ike is looking much more organized. I am wondering if Ike will punch though Hanna's mess and take the lead?????
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