Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Looking at the Caribbean - Infrared Channel 2 Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html
It looks to me if the center of Hanna is around
23N 71W
To me it looks like it is moving NNW
Looking at this loop and the whole picture, the "S"
look is starting to appear.
Hanna is growing in size, I think that once it starts moving
it really could get herself together.
To me it looks like the shear has relaxed, and outflow is improving.
Now looking at this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-ir2.html
Wont the two lows one off of the NC (1012), and the other off New England (1004) effect the track of Hanna?
Your thoughts are appreciated.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Well you can still see what should be an exposed circulation at the point where the last fix was after all. But....it is not moving and I think another circulation feature is beneath that convective activity just based on the overall impresion in the circulation .
If that is true, it seems to be moving NW and that would keep Hanna to the east of the track., but would also allow for intensification. If the exposed area is the true circulation center, then Hanna is still very ill and not moving much.
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doug
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Hanna is weak and the only reason there are T-Storms in the blow up is due to the interaction with the ULL. Hanna isn't creating her own storms right now as its under strong southerly shear by the upper low to her WNW. As the upper low continues to move SW, Hanna will have a chance to get better organized later tonight as she moves more WNW to near GrandBahama island by Thursday. We will see tonight if she can increase T-Storm activity as I suspect the current blow up of storms might fizzle some this evening!
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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Recon found the center just south of the convective blob with 21.5 N/ 72 W. Central pressure is 995 hPa. Strongest winds until now: 47 kt flight level/ 44 kt surface. So it´s on a NNO track.
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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I was wondering what anyone thought of the 12Z that still shows Hanna brushing our coast, versus all the other models taking her well east; in the past, hasn't the ECM been a pretty reliable model?
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TheElNino1
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Orlando
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The latest 12Z European model shows Ike not Hanna brushing the East coast of Florida.
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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You are correct in regards to the .....Lets try to keep the model postings for the most part in the Lounge. Things seem to be about to ramp up.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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It's a reliable model but still a week away. It seems some of the models are beginning to pick up a turn at various points either the Florida coast or east of it. It is still to early to tell.
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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I attached a graphic that shows the tracks of Hanna, Ike, & Jo. It's amazing that in 120 hrs., Ike is projected to be where Hanna's projected in 24hrs; and in 120 hrs.; Jo. is projected to be where Ike is projected in 12 hrs.
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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It is now Hurricane Ike, per 5pm forecast.
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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Just as predicted with a possibility of a cat 3 around day 5. We will have to wait and see if around day 5 it will move more north around the ridge or be pushed further west. Someone may be looking at a major hurricane.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Did she really stall? I commuted back home after work, took a shower and went online and got 3 emails that she stalled?
So, did she stall or was she never really moving? Was she relocated or moving?
Why did she stall?
This is getting important. Honestly. She has Ike coming on her tail now and this set up is more complex now than it was this morning.
Beginning to get a little worried on Hanna's movement for the first time today.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
Imagine by 11 she will have crawled a bit to the nw..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just to clear up some confusion, Hanna is moving pretty quickly to the north now, and if it affects land, it would be in the Carolinas. I'm starting to lean toward it having less of a chance of landfall at all, and I'm glad for that.
However the forecast still has it arriving in the Carolinas (for this one especially ignore the center line), and unless it redevelops a strong core, I don't see it getting to major hurricane status.
Ike may be a Cat 3 later on, and it's still open to either move south, stall over the Bahamas (Again, sorry Bahamians), or curve out to sea, or eventually into the Southeast. We'll have to watch it because it's still a week away!.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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It's hard to make out Hanna's movement. Thanks for clearing that up. All the models seem to agree so she should be off the Carolinas as Ike approaches the Bahamas.
Cat 3... did I miss Cat 2?
Boy commuting really throws a wrench in tracking. Amazing.
This season is truly going to be one to look back at..
Had it mentioned that if Josephine pulls it together down the road she should have some running room as there is some nice spacing between her and Ike.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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NHC Special Advisory - 8pm EDT:
Ike Category 3 Hurricane - 100kt
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/032346.shtml
"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS
DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS."
See the link for the rest of it.
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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So on tuesday morning, i left New Orleans and drove home to florida seeing Hanna and ike (and that NOLA was in pretty good shape). The NOLA and Baton Rouge areas were a mess BUT there was not the devastation that we saw with nor damage from a Cat 4/5 that we feared. NOLA dodged a bullet.
Though we do not anticipate a significant impact from Hanna in central and south florida, some EOCs are going to a level 2 on thursday nite......just in case. So i'll have slept in 2 different EOCs for 2 different storms within the same week. A personal record! Hanna should bring a breeze and some rain but i think it will stay curved on up to the Carolinas.
What concerns me more is Ike. Projections show Ike reaching cat 3 or possibly cat 4 within 5 days and in striking distance of a south florida hit. Still too early to know BUT Ike bears careful watching and maybe some careful planning....
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Ike is now a Cat 4.
Not good at all. My family is in Miami and I've gone off to college in Sarasota. I am still hopeful that it will make for the Florida Straits rather than South Florida.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Cat 4 with some strengthening expected. Ike could be a Cat 5 by morning. Amazing.
Could want to go more poleward with early strengthening...
Beautiful storm, have to say that. Wondering how his rapid intensification might change the track if at all.
Wouldn't a stronger storm want to go more poleward? we'll see if he takes that dip or not.
Either way... has to be up there with one of the fastest rapid intensifications in recent history.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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It will go poleward if it feels a weakness. A ridge is building today (Thursday) over the western Atlantic near 70W and this will cause IKE to move WSW or even SW towards Hispaniola and Cuba. Eventually if he gets far enough south, does he interact with 1 of them? That will be the first question starting up cause if so, it will be on Saturday or Sunday.
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I have a thought concerning Hanna. If the storm accelerates to the NNE as it is predicted to do once hitting or brushing by North Carolina, then won't it's fast forward momentum help to increase the impact of winds on the eastern side of the storm? Let's say that the storm, for example, makes a landfall at Conneticut, Rhode Island, or long island. If the storm is, as forecasted to be, having winds of 60 mph, with a movement speed of 30 or so mph, then won't the right side of the storm have hurricane force winds in the strong Cat 1 category? It's something to think about, at least, that a large area of New England could be impacted with hurricane force winds even though the storm would be of Tropical Storm strength.
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