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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Beryl) , Major: 328 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 328 (Idalia) Major: 328 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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threw-er-back
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: MikeC]
      #84101 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:01 AM

Can someone please tell me the why lack of updates on NHC for Ike? advisories, discussions etc.

Any body have a guess what Ike will do once in the GOM

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: threw-er-back]
      #84102 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:06 AM

Quote:

Can someone please tell me the why lack of updates on NHC for Ike? advisories, discussions etc.

Any body have a guess what Ike will do once in the GOM




They update advisories every 6 hours (5 and 11 AM and PM) except when there are watches/warnings issued, when they will issue one every 3 hours. New forecast updates happen every 6 hours (5 and 11)

They only issue special advisories in between if things change rapidly, or unexpectedly.

There are no watches/warnings for Ike right now.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: MikeC]
      #84104 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:14 AM

Started recording level 3 radar here.

Hanna is still stronger on the eastern side, but convection is more toward the center.


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Raymond
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Raymond]
      #84105 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:19 AM

And some news about Ike:
1. major shift to the west in the new modell runs! There is quite some spread. The westernmost is the GFS, which brings it just along parts of the northern coast of Cuba to the central GOM! Different places of southern Florids are still under the gun (HWRF, SHIPS, UKMET). NOGAPS even recurves it just before Florida.
2. The positive news: The shear bites into the core region of Ike and the worst should be still to come! So there should be a continuing significant weakening trend at least the next day!


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kromdog
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: threw-er-back]
      #84106 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:24 AM

Eventhough there are currently no advisories or watches up for IKE yet, anyone located in the cone should seriously start making their plans this weekend (or earlier) for this potentialy strong storm. People will be off from work for the weekend and the stores and gas stations will be extremely busy!

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shewtinstar
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: MikeC]
      #84107 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:26 AM

Looking at radar seems as though Hanna is turning to the north/north east.

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Raymond
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84109 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:34 AM

Difficult to estimate from radar pics, because there is no clear center. Wait for 20-30 min. for a new center fix by the new recon flying in.
The problem about Ike is: the whole of Florida is in the cone! Western coast, eastern coast, panhandle: really nothing could be excluded right now!

Edited by Raymond (Fri Sep 05 2008 10:37 AM)


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shewtinstar
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Raymond]
      #84111 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:38 AM

Florida is in the cone for Hanna??? Or Ike???? Ike is far enough away so that the track will be changed many times. No need to get excited over him just yet. My thinking is, one storm at a time.

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kromdog
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84112 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:48 AM

Quote:

Florida is in the cone for Hanna??? Or Ike???? Ike is far enough away so that the track will be changed many times. No need to get excited over him just yet. My thinking is, one storm at a time.




The irony in this statement. This season has been so busy we are having to deal with "one storm at a time". Not a good thing.


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JoshuaK
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: kromdog]
      #84115 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:57 AM

The way things are looking right now, Josephine may be the first storm since the 'D' name, Dolly, to not make a landfall on the United States. Dolly, Ernesto, Fay, Gustav, and now Hanna and Ike have been or are forecasted to be landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes on United States SOIl. Certainly I think we've exceeded the expected amount of landfalling tropical cyclones for this year.

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kromdog
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: kromdog]
      #84116 - Fri Sep 05 2008 11:02 AM

The 11:00 AM NHC advisory now has Ike moving through the Florida straits over the keys as a cat 3-4 and into the southeast GOM.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: kromdog]
      #84119 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:18 PM

Sorry for site outage, we're nearing ordering replacement hardware for all systems soon to upgrade flhurricane to a better distributed system for the main site. (Images are already distributed) Thanks to the Donators for the assistance.

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cate
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: LoisCane]
      #84120 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:18 PM

Andy,
Thanks for your response. I do have all my important papers in heavy plastic storage boxes which I will stow in our car along with my pc ('cause I don't want my hard drive blowing all over FL!), and plenty of water and food. Plus, my sister and daughter have access to all my online accounts and copies of my insurance info, etc. I freeze my water bottles and use them to keep my coolers cold so I can store my husband's diabetic meds/insulin. Then they can also be used for drinking. I also freeze gallon jugs to put in the fridge/freezer to keep cold/frozen items cold longer, but I have stocked up on nonperishables as well. I have a percolator for making coffee on the grill, which I bought after Frances and used for Jeanne and Wilma. Cell phones are charged and gas tank topped. Just won't pack suitcases and kitties til last minute. I really prefer not to leave them and I know shelters won't take them. The problem with living in FL is that the state is so narrow and the ways out so limited. I would probably head to my daughter's in GA on Monday if Ike is predicted anywhere near us, but dread the bumper-to-bumper anticipated traffic. My mobile home, as I said previously, was seriously damaged during Frances, exacerbated by Jeanne and later by Wilma, with minimal FEMA assistance, which went to Miami-Dade for some unknown reason. At this point, I am just crossing my fingers. I can't STAND being offline due to power outages!!!!

But, can't pray it won't hit us bc that means it would hit someone else. If it skips SoFL and goes into the Gulf, I don't know what THOSE poor people would do.


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craigm
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: kromdog]
      #84122 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:23 PM

Looks Like Ike has a mind of his own and having started his wsw movement early has now flattened out headed west (trending long enough to not be a wobble) and is crossing to the northside of the projected path.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html

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ltpat228
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: cate]
      #84124 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:28 PM

Well Cate, I see you are not accepting private messages.

You say your mobile home, Frances, Jeanne and Wilma...and you seem to know what it's like going through all 3 of them, correct?

I lived on Jensen Beach in 2004 and Frances and Jeanne's eyes went right over my home while Wilma clipped me as a Cat 1 from the S/W!

Where do you live in Florida, Cate?


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Bloodstar
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: ltpat228]
      #84128 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:55 PM

The latest obs from recon seem to imply Hanna has hurricane force winds. We'll see if the 2PM advisory goes with it, but the system seems to be getting it's act together rather quickly, and even with the limited time it has left it could surprise people.

I hate to say this is the NHC's bad dream. but in a way it is, a system that strenghens unexpectedly close to the coast and moving rapidly is *not* a pleasant thought.

Ike is getting hammered by shear, but holding together rather well. It'll need the shear to relax soon though, otherwise it'll be crippled and take very long time to recover (which would be fantastic news for Florida).

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jeangfl
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: ltpat228]
      #84129 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:56 PM

I am amazed that there are no posts from SW FL - is anyone as concerned as I am re: potential track of Ike? Maps show it to be 80 miles sw of Ft. Myers Weds. a.m. If the tracks are even close to correct - that is a substantial wind/rain event for us.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: jeangfl]
      #84131 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:02 PM

HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008


AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NO OTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FROM THE 1100 AM ADVISORY.


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craigm
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: danielw]
      #84135 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:13 PM

Ike Vortex (9/5 17:10:10Z): MSLP: 959mb; Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.): 94kts (~108.1mph); Max Flt. Wind (from Remarks): 105kts (~120.7mph

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Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 05 2008 02:24 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: craigm]
      #84139 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:23 PM

Craig: has recon been in the center of Ike yet? If so, do the coordinates match with the NHC's coordinates?

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