kromdog
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Just a note, there is a mandatory evacuation for visitors/non-residents for the Florida Keys starting tomorrow.
I was born and raised in Tampa (50 Years) and spend a lot of time fishing in the keys. I would think with a cat 4 possibly about to roll over your head, some of the "regulars" might want to start thinking about heading north also.
Edited by kromdog (Fri Sep 05 2008 09:31 PM)
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Fla. native in Ala.
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I agree. I grew up in Stuart and spent a lot of time in the keys and I would get out if facing a 3 or 4, especially when you read about the Labor Day Hurricane in the 30s.
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omg
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You have to understand the mindset of a true conch (regular as you stated) They feel that they are just as indestructible as the mangroves that formed the Keys. I know I lived there for twenty years. Conch Key.
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kromdog
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No disrespect to the conch republic. But having been there, too many nights on Duval Street can cloud your judgement.
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omg
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My point exactly. Sorry to get off subject.
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kromdog
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IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.
IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.
You know the is working overtime with all of these storms. The above is from the 11:00 PM Discussion and if you read it, I think you will agree it is impossible for Hanna to be over the north coast of Cuba anytime soon?
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cate
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The discussion led me to believe that Cuba is indeed in danger from Ike, but I'm no met by any means. It sounded and maps appeared as if Ike would clip at least the northern part of Cuba and the models seem to show it heading into the GOM. Any chance of curling around again to FL somewhere?
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cate
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kromdog...think the Hanna was just mis-speech for Ike.
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kromdog
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I believe the margin of error this far out is about 225 miles. So the answer is probably yes.
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kromdog
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kromdog...think the Hanna was just mis-speech for Ike.
"Mis-speech" or just quick typing, my point is that these guys must be under a lot of stress trying to track and predict the outcome of all these storms at one time. Especially when they know that lives may depend on their forecast.
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JonB
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Quote:
The discussion led me to believe that Cuba is indeed in danger from Ike, but I'm no met by any means. It sounded and maps appeared as if Ike would clip at least the northern part of Cuba and the models seem to show it heading into the GOM. Any chance of curling around again to FL somewhere?
The rule of thumb is if you are in the cone the potential for a strike is there.
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Survived:
Gloria '85, Bob '91, Irene '99, Francis & Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Fay 08'
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RevUp
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Looks like Florida is in for a one-two punch with Ike. First concern has to be the Keys and extreme south Florida. Beyond that, Ike looks like it will move into the Gulf and slow down (as depicted by and model consensus). Therefore, Ike remains a real concern for anyone in FL all of next week, especially along the Gulf coast of FL and further inland (tornadoes, high winds, etc.) Pay close attention to those advisories from .
Let's hope and pray that Ike gets torn up a lot as it moves along the north Cuban coastal areas and interacts with land.
Thank God Hanna didn't strengthen further before moving up the east coast.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Raymond
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Ike has slightly weakened with a central pressure around 962 hPa and max . surface winds around 95 kt. here is still an not visible eye present, which is open partly.
But the most improtant thing is, that the modells all shift south and west. So Ike will most likely travel a significant time over Cuba, which is of course horrible news for the cuban people, and then move quite a bit into the GOM. Now all of the northern Gulf coast is in the cone of Ike. Intensity forecast is much more complicated now. The meteorological conditions should become conducive for reintensification later today, but than significant weakening could occur due to long travel over Cuba. Let´s see, what will arrive in the Gulf.
And Hanna just makes landfall at Myrtle Beach at the border between the Carolinas. I guess, they declare her to be a strong tropical storm at landfall. Recent center fixes have shown no strengthening.
Edited by Raymond (Sat Sep 06 2008 03:26 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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looks to me that Hanna has finally made US landfall as a strong Tropical Storm... near the SC/NC border at 0715z. maybe just ne of North Myrtle Beach... up HWY 17 there... little river, SC... "south of the border"... she should start to weaken now.. Recon departed the area about 2 hrs ago... almost home... i don't seen anything in velocity data to show she made hurricane... i have see two reports of wind gust to 72 - 73 mph there on land on the west side of coc... dry air on the east/south side... prevented hanna from getting stronger... plus moving over 20mph
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 06 2008 03:33 AM)
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Hugh
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It's pretty bad when you wake up and think "great news... it's only forecast to be a Cat 3 in 5 days"! Yet that was my thought as I looked at the 5am forecast advisory on Ike. Then, I read the discussion...
I don't mean to sound alarmist, but this could be very bad news so quickly on the heels of Gustav. Since Gustav did not strengthen after it went over Cuba, people may be less inclined to believe intensification forecasts for Ike should it move over Cuba... and of course, there's no way to know for sure how Ike will be impacted by Cuba even after the fact because every storm is different. The only thing that is becoming clearer is that Ike is destined for the Gulf.
Edit: It also looks like Ike has decided to blow up size-wise ovenight.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Sep 06 2008 07:35 AM)
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madmumbler
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From looking at the latest spaghetti models this morning and the current cone, I would say that not only should Florida stay cautious, but if someone lives in the Gulf Coast region from the Panhandle to LA, they should be paying VERY close attention. If you'll notice, the outer edges of the 8am 5-day bubble are touching LA. There's still several days for this track to swing around either direction, but frankly, considering it's a dangerous storm with the potential to severely impact an area, no one should let their guard down.
And if you're in the Keys, considering there's only one road out, I would say yes, leave sooner than later because this is one you don't want to try to ride out.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
Edited by madmumbler (Sat Sep 06 2008 08:11 AM)
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danielw
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Rad
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Quote:
Quote:
Just a note, there is a mandatory evacuation for visitors/non-residents for the Florida Keys starting tomorrow.
I was born and raised in Tampa (50 Years) and spend a lot of time fishing in the keys. I would think with a cat 4 possibly about to roll over your head, some of the "regulars" might want to start thinking about heading north also.
Yes Kromdog I know I would be heading out if a cat 4were coming my way and I lived in the keys !! no questions asked .
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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