Unusual Hurricane Ike Heading for Texas - UPDATE

Update - Friday, 1PM CDT
Hurricane Ike now about 165 miles southeast of Galveston and the forward motion is becoming more northwesterly at 10 knots. This motion is likely to continue and should place Ike onshore near Crystal Beach in the Galveston area around 3AM CDT early Saturday morning - probably as a strong Category II hurricane.
ED

Original Article
Hurricane Ike, now at 85 knots, continues to move toward the north central Texas coast. Ike has a most unusual structure with an outer wind maxima - at times resembling a secondary eye within the eyewall (and sometimes two of these) rotating around the inner center of the hurricane. This structure expands the field of maximum winds considerably - rather than just a smaller area around the center - and if this structure should continue for the next 36 hours or so, the risk of any significant intensification seems unlikely.

Similar to Gustav, and to a lesser extent Fay, the inner core of Ike has not recovered after its second landfall over western Cuba and Ike's entrance into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps a combination of factors created the unusual structure of this storm - the pull from the shortwave that passed to the north, the dry air entrainment from the west through southwest (that still continues to some degree) and the significant expansion of the storm itself are possible contributing factors. Ike will certainly become an interesting future case study.

Although unusual in appearance, Ike is still a storm that presents many dangers. Even if the intensity remains unchanged, these additional wind maxima will greatly expand the area of highest winds upon landfall to an area much larger than that which would normally be expected. From the precise point of landfall (which now appears to be in the vicinity of Sargent, Texas) the zone of strong winds could extend from 30 miles to the south to 45 miles to the north. notes that there is still plenty of time for the center to contract and the hurricane to intensify. It is also within the realm of possibility for Ike to form a 50 to 60 mile wide eye prior to landfall. Ike is one storm where the axiom 'don't just pay attention to the point of landfall' is very important.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Sep 12 2008 01:56 PM)

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