MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It's been over a week since Hurricane Ike made landfall in Texas and it's been relatively quiet in the tropics. However, 93L in the eastern Caribbean may form over the next few days. Convection is higher on the eastern side of the system. It has about a 50/50 shot of developing.. It would likely affect Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (again).
Beyond that a few waves off Africa have an outside chance of developing later. But most of next week will likely be slow as well, with things perhaps gradually getting more active. (But not nearly as active is the past several weeks)
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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FYI, I think you may have put up the wrong graphic for the spaghetti model for 93L. Seems to be for a different storm because when I pull up the models from the tagged link, as opposed to the graphic, its completely different.
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KikiFla
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Miami, FL
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I think that is an old model plot for Ike when it was near the Turks and Caicos...
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cosmicstorm
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Florida
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Actually, I think it was the model runs for the remnents of what had been Josephine. At any rate that graphic is in need of an update. The links are accurate to plots. This new area has an increased probability of forming according to the as upper level winds are expected to become more favorable over the next few days. I was enjoying the break in the tropics.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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The below link is directly from 's web site displaying 93L.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=93&a=2
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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It's been a nice break since Ike, however things seem to be ramping back up once again. There is a lot of convection in the tropics that will need to be watched, as conditions become more favorable for development.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The model plot on the Main Page has been corrected.
Thanks,
ED
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W TO CURACAO AND THEN INTO NERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-68W...INCLUDING THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 21 2008 07:30 AM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Radar imagery out of PR would seem to indicate that there may be a circulation centre south of St Croix, moving slowly north or north-northwest.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Radar imagery out of PR would seem to indicate that there may be a circulation centre south of St Croix, moving slowly north or north-northwest.
Satellite imagery would seem to indicate that the circulation is still not very organized overall, though, with a lot of westerly or southwesterly shear. In fact, I'd say that the radar shows only a very broad circulation (not enough for to pull the trigger, I don't believe). Recon will tell the tail this afternoon - I'd definately say it's organized enough to go ahead with the flight, even if its not yet a depression.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Where is the center is the question? There is a low level center and a mid level center and it hasn't pulled together yet clearly that I can see though recon may solve that problem.
Next problem.. it's moving very slowly, really just hanging there and going to give prolonged rain totals to PR and other areas already hard hit.
I would think the longer it sits there (and it's forecast not to move fast) the further west it will creep with the lower level flow.
Can see pre-banding going on... I'll give it an A for putting on a real show but for actual strength... a C-.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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The has (30 minutes ago) issued a STDS... saying that a tropical depression could form at any time. Per the STDS, recon is now on the way, so the first advisory should be issued on TD 11 by 2pm, I'd say.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Well... we'll see. Gonna watch. It's a big system even if you can't find it's center well.
And... even moving northwest/north it will bring heavy weather to areas already hurting.
Thanks for update.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1217 PM AST SUN SEP 21 2008
.UPDATE...DISTURBED WEATHER AFFECTING THE NE CARIB REGION THE PAST
24 HOURS OR SO AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SW TO NE AREA OF ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED
AND OVAL IN SHAPE... WITH STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTING VIGOROUS MID
LEVEL ROTATION IN A CLUSTER OF TSTORMS INVOF 17N 66.3W.
THIS FEATURE HAS DRIFTED SSW DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... BUT WITH
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NOW SUGGESTING A MORE NE MOTION AND
ELONGATION OF THE RAINBANDS THAT WERE DEVELOPING AROUND THIS
APPARENT LOW.
TUTT LOW TO THE NNW OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIFTING SLOWLY NW AND ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO RELAX... AND BANDING ON THE E SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUS
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ON ITS WAY TO BETTER ORGANIZATION AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON
STLT SIGNALS AND DOPPLER WINDS I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT THE HURRICANE RECON FLIGHT FINDS 35 KNOT WINDS AT 5-8K FT
BETWEEN SE PUERTO RICO AND ST CROIX. REGARDLESS OF WIND
STRENGTH... THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE E AND SE SECTIONS OF PR AND FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... AND A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT N FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS THIS ELONGATED
TROUGHING REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE... AND MID
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING INTO SE CARIB UNDERNEATH THIS SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH OR LOW MAY THEN LINGER ACROSS THE ATLC WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY... AND COULD
PROLONG THIS RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THUS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Sorry about the length... lots of info.~danielw
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Hurikid
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
Loc: Barbados
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Recon inside "tropical disturbance" now. Finding FL winds of 47 mph and they're not flying THAT high. It might def. be our next tropical storm by tonight if not by 5 p.m. or even inbetween now and 5
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Looks as if this system is trying to get going. Conditions are favorable for further development. The good news for us in the US, is that, given the current conditions, it should move north and be a fish spinner.
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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No, that isn´t correct. All modells turn it NW later on in the forecast period and show a landfall in North Carolina or more to the north in about 6 days. The hurricane modells forecast a cat. 1-2 with central pressure around 970 hPa.
Edited by Raymond (Sun Sep 21 2008 02:55 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Interesting timing on all those mid-Atlantic/NE landfall, as today is the 70th anniversary of the 1938 Long Island Express which killed 500 people.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Quote:
Recon inside "tropical disturbance" now. Finding FL winds of 47 mph and they're not flying THAT high. It might def. be our next tropical storm by tonight if not by 5 p.m. or even inbetween now and 5
Not yet, still no low level circulation. From the STDS issued at 4:15 (see the top page for full text):
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.
Bill
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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The mid level center is over Puerto Rico. So it´s a bit complex, to define it and to find a closed low level circulation. Recon found 41 kt at the flight level to the SE. The meteorological conditions for developement are quite good. So I guess we`ll get the first warnings, if we have a well defined center over water to the north of Puerto Rico.
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