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The area over the northeast Gulf extending into offshore the Southeast now has a 40% chance to develop into a tropical or subtropical system this weekend or early next week. Lots of off/on rain in Florida in the meantime.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 265 (Milton) , Major: 265 (Milton) Florida - Any: 265 (Milton) Major: 265 (Milton)
Rem Barry
ADV#7 5:00 am EDT
23.0N 99.2W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2517
Loc: Austin, Tx
West of Spain: Post-frontal Low Undergoing More Tropical Transition
      #85133 - Sun Sep 21 2008 05:08 PM Attachment (436 downloads)

Currently in the vicinity of 36N 15W

Very interesting feature. An extratropical low has lost most of its last remaining frontal connections. Traveling over 22-24 C sea surface temps and (had been) under very low shear, a slow tropical transition has been underway.

Both quikscat and windsat passes from very early this morning (around 0700 UTC) show at that time a very symmetric surface low was already present, with the strongest winds closest to the center.

Some may recall Hurricane Vince (2005), which made landfall in a similar location as the very first officiated tropical cyclone on record to do so there.

Uploaded this early morning's windsat pass and a more recent (1800 UTC) Visible satellite image.

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cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2517
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: West of Spain - Post-frontal Low Undergoing Some Tropical Transition [Re: cieldumort]
      #85134 - Sun Sep 21 2008 05:14 PM Attachment (428 downloads)

Some recent nearby ship reports
(Time, lat, lon, wind direction from, speed in knots, pressure)
1800 35.10 -15.30 300 32.1 29.62
1800 38.10 -14.50 60 9.9 29.92
1500 34.80 -15.10 220 25.1 29.66
1200 35.00 -17.40 300 29.9 29.77

This morning's windsat upload added to this entry.

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