MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4439
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, and in the months prior to that are several hurricane and tropical storm conferences.
Two of which are the National Hurricane Conference, that runs from April 6th through the 10th. This conference moves from year to year in different parts of the country. Last year it was in Orlando, this year it will be in Austin, TX. More information about it can be found at http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/
The other is more Florida based, it is the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference, located this year in the Broward Convention Center in Ft. Lauderdale. This year it runs from May 10th through the 15th. More information on it can be found at http://www.flghc.org/
This year is shaping up to be an average to slightly above average year year for Tropical Storms. Colorado State Predictions (as of December 10, 2008) were 14 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, and 3 Intense Hurricanes.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the NWS Morning Area Forecast Discussions:
Looks like there may be some trouble brewing. Two weeks early !! There may be more AFD's with reference to the forecasted LOW Pressure system, but after reading all of the AFDs from Tampa to New Orleans I think that most, if not all are on the same boat, with regards to the system developing.
GFS has been known in the past to spin up systems out of the 'blue'. Apparently isn't the only model that is forecasting this. See Dr Robert Hart's Tropical Model suite at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs
NWS Jackson,MS
...GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CIRCULATION IN
THE EASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH WESTWARD
TO THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL REGION ON THURSDAY...WHILE
THIS FEATURE PUSHES WERE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AT THIS TIME ON THE
EUROPEAN. THE EUROPEAN MODEL THEN PUSHES IT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THE KEEPS THE UPPER LOW AROUND THE COASTAL
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE KEEPS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
AROUND THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL FINALLY BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO THE REGION AFTER MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
Sat Morning Jackson,MS AFD
NWS Slidell,LA
WHILE THIS RIDGING DOMINATES THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...A CUT OFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH THE AND ECWMF DEPICT THIS...BUT THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME TYPE OF COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS LOW REMAINS STATIONARY...A SURFACE REFLECTION MAY
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE GREAT DIFFERENCES
ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SURFACE LOW FORMING DURING THIS TIME. THE
MODELS THEN DEPICT A NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...HAVE WENT WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY
ALSO AFFECTS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEK...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON WIND AND WAVE
FORECASTS. 35
Sat Morning Slidell,LA AFD
Mobile,AL
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)BY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ENERGY WHICH HAD BEEN PUSHING SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES SOUTH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO END EVEN OVER THE ENTIRE MARINE FA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEX...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SYSTEM FORMING...BY WED EVE NEAR
SOUTHERN FL FOR THE ...EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE .
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING.
GFS STILL CONTINUES TO MEANDER THE SYSTEM NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...WHILE THE 16/00Z HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SOLUTION.
ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORN...FRIDAY MORN FOR THE .
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE FORECAST IS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
A LULL MID WEEK.
Saturday Morning Mobile AFD
Tallahassee,FL AFD
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...THE 00Z ENSEMBLE 500 MB FIELDS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN
GOMEX/FL PENINSULA TUE...FOLLOWED BY A WWD DRIFT TOWARD THE NWRN
GOMEX BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
PRESSURES LOWER INVOF CUBA TUE...WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION INVOF THE
KEYS/SW FL COAST WED...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL W TO NW MOTION. THE 12Z
EURO KEEPS THE LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS S OF CUBA BEFORE
EMERGING AS A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SRN GOMEX BY SAT.
BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EURO
SOLUTION...WILL PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE . COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED OVER CNTRL FL DURING THE MON NIGHT-WED TIME FRAME...WITH
MOISTURE/SMALL POPS CONFINED TO SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SW FL COAST MOVES TO THE NW...E-SE FLOW WILL
ADVECT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GOMEX INTO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FCST WILL BE WINDS OVER THE
MARINE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. WILL TREND WINDS UPWARD...CAPPING THEM
AT 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS.
Saturday Morning Tallahassee AFD
Tampa Bay,FL AFD
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MODELS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH
TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO COME FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
PERIOD. 18Z RUN WAS GUNG HO FOR SOMETHING EARLY TO MID
WEEK...AND NOW IT HAS BACKED OFF TO A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
ECMWF...THOUGH STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE. 00Z WIND GRIDS ACTUALLY
LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. DGEX BRINGS A STRONGER
MORE ORGANIZED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SCENARIOS IS HOW MUCH ENERGY THE CURRENT
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY LEAVES BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN
GULF IN THE FORM OF EITHER A CUTOFF LOW OR A REMNANT TROUGH.
WITH EITHER SOLUTION...ONE THING IS LOOKING MORE CERTAIN...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE
LEANING ON 00Z ...GIVEN ITS SIMILARITIES TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. WILL BLEND A LITTLE TOWARDS THE BY FRIDAY THOUGH AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHICH FORECAST WILL WORK OUT.
Saturday Morning Tampa Bay AFD
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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this morning globals still showing a system coming up from the SE GOM/ Western Carb. and then into the eastern GOM... NW Florida area.. as of right now.. i don't see this area going east of Florida... this does bare watching for south Florida and the NE GOM coast... still need a few more days of computer runs.. but looks to me that the season will get an early start! Water temps off PCB lower 80's now. Be interesting to see what tonights show. has been showing something for about 4-5 days now... regardless, looks like a lot of TROPICAL Mositure will becoming to Florida next week! much need rain!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat May 16 2009 01:56 PM)
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