Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Its time to start our annual assessment of anticipated tropical cyclone activity for the 2009 season in the Atlantic basin. Last year 43 site users offered their guesstimates for 2008 tropical cyclone activity - a record high level of participation. The 2008 season ended with 16 named storms of which 8 were hurricanes and 5 of those were major hurricanes (Cat III or stronger) and Mr Corkdork800 hit the totals right on the nose - nice job! Cieldumort (16/8/4) and HanKFranK (15/8/5) were only one off of the total numbers while FtLaudBob (17/9/5), Storm Hobbiest (16/7/4) and Hootie Hoo (15/8/4) were two off on the total numbers - all excellent forecasts! CSU and TSR were also at -2; both with forecasts of 15/8/4.
For the upcoming 2009 season, CSU and TSR are again equal in their outlooks - both are again forecasting an active season of 15/8/4 - and having no real disagreement with their logic, my forecast is similar at 14/8/4. With a weakening La Nina next spring expected to become neutral during the 2009 season, it looks like activity should remain above average. While the far western Atlantic is expected to be slightly cooler than normal, it is worth noting that the western Atlantic was also slightly cooler than normal during the 2008 season.
Initial best analog seasons appear to be 1990 and 2001 for SSTs and 1996 for pattern. I'll update this thread again in early April, but we'll keep it open until the 2009 season starts on June 1st. Here is your chance to take your own guess at the numbers for 2009. You can update them as you wish until the season starts and remember that forecast rational is not required, but please limit your responses to your actual forecasts and rationale (if any) - it makes it easier at the end of the season to compile the results and see who did well.
Cheers,
ED
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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I propose a less active season:
13/6/3
-------------------- Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Waldo Florida
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Things have been a bit to odd. I'm gonna have to bump it up a bit to 15/9/6. Hope I'm wrong, but the weather has just been to squirrely. Just a beginner's hunch.
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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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OK, I'm going with 13/8/3. Hope all are enjoying the peace!
-------------------- Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne
etc...etc....etc....
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enterlaughing
Registered User
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Loc: Wisconsin
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Let's see.......things have been rather dull and dry........I'm going with 14/5/3
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M.A.
Weather Guru
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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14-7-4
I hope everyone has had a great offseason thus far.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I`m going with 13-7-3
Edited by B.C.Francis (Mon Mar 02 2009 07:01 PM)
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
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We (South Florida) have had a cool winter. Its been a great chance of pace. Just this morning while walking the dogs in 48 degree weather I was asking myself, what does this mean for hurricane season.
I say
15/7/3
Stay warm until then!
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NC
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Let's see a weak La Nina in place that may very well go neutral or transition to Nino late in the season, so I am going with fewer storms and it could be a busy front end of season and an early end to the season. Enjoy the cool off season.
So I say
12/6/2
lowest number so far I think...we shall see
-------------------- Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Hurricane Season 2009 12/6/4
-------------------- Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Quote:
We (South Florida) have had a cool winter. Its been a great chance of pace. Just this morning while walking the dogs in 48 degree weather I was asking myself, what does this mean for hurricane season.
I say
15/7/3
Stay warm until then!
The other odd thing is that we've had virtually no rain here since November. Not sure what that means for hurricane season, but ... 16/7/4.
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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14/7/5
-------------------- Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
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One could hope that there would be a year with no US landfalls, but then I feel selfish because odds are someone else will be dealing with it. So maybe this year, whatever comes our way, let them all be cat1 and 2, or a nice tamish tropical system to raise the water table.
12/6/4
-------------------- Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I still have no reason to think we're not in a hyperactive pattern.
17/10/5 with 2 Tropical Depressions
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Loc: Miami Florida
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Can you give us another update on the 09 season ED?
Thanks
(Please use the PM capability for personal requests and responses - only post seasonal forecasts in this thread.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Apr 05 2009 07:40 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The forecast remains unchanged with Neutral to slightly above normal SST conditions expected in the tropical eastern Pacific, but the Atlantic outlook has changed with slightly below normal SST conditions expected for the entire hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Given the massive amount of Sahara dust currently blowing off of western Africa and extending all the way to northeastern South America, the cooler than normal SST forecast may well be justified.
1989 and 1996 now seem to be the best analog years. With Neutral conditions and a cooler tropical Atlantic, I've lowered my forecast for the season to 12/7/3 - a normal to just slightly above normal season. If the western African area remains dry and dusty into June, there would be a better probability for even lower numbers rather than higher ones.This thread will remain open though May 31st so that you can post your own forecasts and/or revisions.
TSR issues their Atlantic basin forecast on 4/6/09 and CSU follows with their forecast on 4/7/09.
Cheers,
ED
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Loc: Miami Florida
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Tropical Storm Risk today calling for what looks like an average season in 2009...15/8/4
Average since about 1995.
I'll also go with 15/8/4 for my numbers.
Edited by Hurricane29 (Mon Apr 06 2009 11:21 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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CSU's Forecast (issued today) calls for 12/6/2 - with similar considerations of expected conditions and lower SSTs in the tropical Atlantic.
Cheers,
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I'll go with 11/5/3 for this early.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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On a limb.
9/7/2
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