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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 80 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Depression One Forms East of the Carolinas
      #85499 - Tue May 26 2009 12:00 PM

11AM 28 May 2009
And Tropical Depression One is born. The NHC discussion indicates they think it will become a Tropical Storm before moving over colder waters in the Atlantic. If Tropical Depression One does become a Tropical Storm, it will be the fourth early season Tropical Storm to develop in the last decade (Tropical Storm Arthur in May 2008, Subtropical Storm Andrea in May, 2007, and Tropical Storm Ana in 2003).


8AM 28 May 2009
The low east of the Carolinas is holding together impressively, it is about to enter the Gulf Stream, It still has a low (30% or less) chance of forming into something, although if it does it likely will be short lived and continue to move away from the United States.

Convection has bubbled up this morning, which indicates it may be trying to organize, but this is slightly away from the center of circulation.

Original Update
A new low, designated Invest 91L, has formed east of the Carolinas. It is unlikely to develop into a depression, but it is worth watching. Again, a bit early before the start of the season on June 1st.

In the past, when we have seen early attempts at development we've wound up with mostly quiet Junes, and I do not see anything different about it.

91 should just bring a bit of rain and breezy conditions to the Carolina coastline.

This is hurricane preparedness week over at the National Hurricane Center. Check it out for some good information regarding Hurricane Preparedness.



TD#1 Event Related Links


float1latest.gif stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=1 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of TD#1
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#1


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#1 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#1 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#1

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#1
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#1 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Cuban Radar

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: New Low East of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #85500 - Tue May 26 2009 02:53 PM

It's not looking very "healthy" this afternoon. SSTs in the region are around 75 – 77ºF and only warm significantly nearer to the coast. What may have been a closed circulation earlier looks to have dissipated now.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: New Low East of the Carolinas [Re: MichaelA]
      #85502 - Wed May 27 2009 10:32 AM

Looks to be a little more twist this am and some convection on the SE side. However, I can attest first-hand from this weekend how cold the surf still is on the OBX:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-vis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Wed May 27 2009 11:25 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: New Low East of the Carolinas [Re: MichaelA]
      #85505 - Thu May 28 2009 07:48 AM

Looks pretty round and impressive to me this morning...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.htm

I mean... pre-season and all and its moving pretty fast but gonna cause strong weather up in the shipping world I would imagine.

I am sure it's cold up in OBX... one reason I am spending this weekend in Miami in our nice, warm surf!

Still has a banding sort of look to it.. if it was June 12th would we take it more serously?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: New Low East of the Carolinas [Re: LoisCane]
      #85506 - Thu May 28 2009 09:46 AM Attachment (475 downloads)

having a hard time thinking 91L is not atleast a TD this morning.. Very small impressive CDO this morning... over the center... of course its heading away from US.. TWO gives less than 30%... but looking at sats.. i'd think we have a TD... if not a TS on 91L.. With it being so small, its has a better chance before it leaves the gulf stream waters in the next day.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00905261245.GIF

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu May 28 2009 09:51 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: New Low East of the Carolinas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85507 - Thu May 28 2009 10:00 AM

I agree that it's really close, I think the NHC may hold off for another few hours to see if the organization holds together, and if it does, then pull the trigger (of course the T numbers are at 1.5/1.5 and usually the NHC waits for at least a 2.0/2.0 to call it a tropical depression). Right now, this is another one of those marginal calls that could go either way.

I know I'd written this one off yesterday, tells you what I know

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: New Low East of the Carolinas [Re: Bloodstar]
      #85508 - Thu May 28 2009 10:54 AM

Just designated TD-1 and is expected to become a TS later. So, we're off to an early start this year.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
TD1 [Re: MichaelA]
      #85509 - Thu May 28 2009 11:46 AM

Wow, blown away. They went to a full upgrade. Amazing. Not really amazing when you looked at the satellite images this morning but wow...

So, where's the data...

And Tropical Depression One is born."

Great title... good job, HONEST assessment of what IS definitely going on inside the storm .. depression!

Check loop for evolution

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irnhc/g8irnhcjava.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Depression One Forms East of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #85510 - Thu May 28 2009 01:25 PM

Nothing quite like a trip up the ol' Gulf Stream Express under some low shear to get one's engine started. Here we are, a couple of days before the season has officially begun, and we're sitting on one and a maybe post-season upgrade, already.

It is interesting to note how quiet this year's tornado season has been, and how this undoubtedly ties in to the unseasonably favorable conditions for TC genesis over the western Atlantic. SPC issued a record-low number of watches for the middle of the month of May, with only a dribble since . The Vortex 2 project has been spending more time taking measurements of highways, than thunderstorms, let alone twisters.

The jet stream has been way up in Canada recently. Canada, in May.


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Jumaduke
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: North Florida
Re: Tropical Depression One Forms East of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #85513 - Thu May 28 2009 07:00 PM

Hi everyone, I am sure there are a lot of ppl that forgot the password... I must admit I haven't been here since the late fall.

I have an observation/question:

We here in FL (myself in North Florida) have had 6-8 days of rain. Slow steady drizzle. It kind of felt like the edges of a LOW with no sustained wind.

Now, we have a depression named and I was wondering - Is there any reason to think that TD1 is the remnants of TD1/2 that sat on us all last week?

Thanks for any insight. Sorry if wrong forum.

Rob K.

--------------------
Go Gators!


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Depression One Forms East of the Carolinas [Re: Jumaduke]
      #85514 - Thu May 28 2009 10:17 PM

Quote:

Now, we have a depression named and I was wondering - Is there any reason to think that TD1 is the remnants of TD1/2 that sat on us all last week?

Thanks for any insight. Sorry if wrong forum.

Rob K.




Nah, TD 1 is a completely different area of low pressure, one that started out down in the Bahamas and has tracked more or less northward to this point in time (see here). The remnants of last week's feature are interspersed with the synoptic flow not that far from TD 1, though.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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