LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Personally I like salty things!
The gave it a possibility and other models have been showing development south of Cuba. With the long train of moisture draped across Florida and fronts moving across the SE... would think anything that could possibly form down there would be sucked north somewhere... towards our part of the world.
Normally... I am skeptical of the SW Carib... but am less skeptical on tropical development forming at the bottom of a dangling trof..
Either way... the yellow watch box is there to catch our attention and give us a heads up.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4434
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The disturbance in the southwest Caribbean is too disorganized and conditions just aren't all that great for development. Most likely, this one isn't going to develop into anything except cause some rain.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Interesting comment in the long-term forecast today for Tampa:
ON A SIDE NOTE THE LATEST CONTINUES TO SHOW A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD WITH THIS LOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FL ON
SATURDAY. THE 12Z AND 18Z DGEX SHOW SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENTS BUT ARE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL LOW LEAVES
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE DAY 7 FORECAST (SATURDAY)...SO FOR NOW WILL
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND DEPICT CLIMO-LEVEL POPS (30%)
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IF THE CONTINUES WITH ITS
CURRENT TRENDS AND OTHER MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH IT...THEN
RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FORECASTS.
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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Image at link. Moved due to oversize.
http://i230.photobucket.com/albums/ee260/futuremarlinsgm/tropics060809.jpg
Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 07 2009 04:40 PM)
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 158
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Just now getting on top of this thing, and there seems to be some deep convection firing up directly over a circulation center, whether or not it's low/mid/high I can't tell at this time with the fading evening satellite shots, but it appears as of the 23:15 UTC satellite image that the center of circulation is at 12.8N and 81.5W, moving just about due north.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I'm not the biggest believer in this system. It has a good ways to go before it makes a believer of me.
Yellow to Orange might help... on the page.
But, seriously... it's hung in there pretty well and looks great on funktop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ft-l.jpg
Am curious how something can develop on epac and in carib yet... doesn't really show it pulling together for a while... "slow development" so... watching the show unfold.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 158
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I dunno, tonight's big blow up of convection could be just that, and gone as soon as tomorrow morning, or it could be the low pressure system firing up into a tropical system. One can't be too careful of a quickly developing tropical system, even if is still early in June.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Yeah I want to believe this is a figment of my imagination too...because it was progged for "slow development" and this is crazy...tonight...
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv
and ..look at the .. unreal, surprising
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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When I look at surface observations, I use the NowCOAST Web-Mapping and Satellite Server since they have accurate and constantly updated data and imagery. Thats where I got the observations that indicated an east wind on the north and a west wind on the south which would be indicative of some surface reflection occuring. Not only that, but when you look very closely at daytime visible/nighttime IR satellite loops (I use Tropical RAMSDIS for this), you can see the low-level clouds starting to get drawn northward into the disturbance. All this indicates to me at least that we're starting to see something happening at the surface.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1183
Loc: fl
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If this had model support within 24hrs of a closed low..I would accept that..but no model shows really anything for 4 days still....but just looking @ the Sat you can see its being enhanced by the upper trough.
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 158
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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There is rotation within the central core of convection, you can see it on the Water Vapor loops.
I'm almost willing to bet money that if the convection persists in it's current form, that we'll have TD#2 by monday evening. All the same, I'd rather not have to deal with a tropical system one week before leaving on a month long vacation. 
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4434
Loc: Orlando, FL
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If the shear in the area was not so high we could see something develop, however it's not. It appears the western Caribbean system is going to diminish with all the shear after a little flare up. Still pretty sure that nothing will develop from this. Next week may be more interesting.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The models have not been developing this "system" in the last couple of runs. It looks like most of the shear is now N of the major convection flare up. It certainly is bubbling and boiling, but only time will tell if anything comes of this or if it simply collapses.
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Michael
WU PWS
2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4
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Adam S
Unregistered
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What are the chances this low develops into a depression and hits south Florida? Last night and this morning this low had a convection.
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
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well I think there are really two *separate* percentages in your question.
1. What are the chances that this turns into a TC of some kind? Right now, the puts the percentage at 30%, I think considering the affects of the shear as well as how much convection is present, that is a fair percentage.
2. Will this hit south Florida? This is anybody's guess, but because of it's position at the base of a trough system, it will be going north somewhere. How far East or West just depends on timing.
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Buttman
Unregistered
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Circumstances exactly similiar to this created Alberto on June 9 2006. Dont forget that.
But ya it looks like crap for TC potential ATM.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4434
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Alberto in 2006 was a little more organized at this state. It didn't have quite as much shear to deal with. It became a depression in 2006, and looking back it was in much better shape at the point this system is at now. Alberto also got tagged as an invest early too, and had a low level circulation associated with it. (see model animation of Alberto)
It did almost make hurricane strength before making landfall along the Big Bend, but didn't quite get there (See the plot history for it--click the forecaster name to see the discussions along the way).
This year the situation is a bit different in the upper air, so I doubt the disturbance will do anything, at least for several days, if at all. Shear is winning out.
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buttman
Unregistered
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Mike as a rabid FLH fan you hit the nail on the head. Historically I needed to get that out there. Alberto was better developed at this point. Probably poofs tommorrow. we will see. Shame, I wouldnt mine a quiet 2006 repeat
And you guys need to change your spam filter thingy already. 90% of the words are unreadable!
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canewars
Unregistered
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ive been an observer on this site for awhile but am having a tough time interpreting the post right above mine.. is that a joke? typically the posts are mostly intelligent and comprehendable.. and usually pertain to weather and not mumbo jumbo giberish.
The 'above' post referred to here has been deleted~danielw
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 08 2009 11:44 PM)
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Quote:
The 'above' post referred to here has been deleted~danielw
Thank you for simply deleting posts instead of archiving them in the graveyard.
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