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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 328 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 328 (Idalia) Major: 328 (Idalia)

Off-Topic >> Comedy Shop

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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
NRL: And nary an INVEST stirred, no matter where one looked.....
      #85553 - Thu Jun 04 2009 12:11 PM

Checking the NRL Website this morning I found out ...

"And nary an INVEST stirred, no matter where one looked....." in big red letters posted on their website. (Since removed.)

Nice to see that the guys at NRL have a sense of humor, too.

Oops! What's THAT I see 'stirring' in the Indian Ocean? MJO on the prowl?

Nope! A quick check with the latest (as of June 1st) "Expert Discussion" on the MJO phenomena from the good folks at the Climate Prediction Center ( MJO Expert Discussion ) indicates that this is not the case:

• The MJO has generally been incoherent during the past week.

• Based on the latest observations the MJO is expected to remain weak during the next 1-2 weeks.

• The MJO signal is not anticipated to contribute significantly to areas of tropical rainfall or tropical cyclone development during the period.

The MJO, at this time and for several weeks ahead, appears to remain "Incoherent" to non-existant. But that will surely change as we work further into the season.

Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Jun 04 2009 05:12 PM)

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Ed in Va
Weather Master

Posts: 489
Re: And nary an INVEST stirred, no matter where one looked..... [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #85555 - Thu Jun 04 2009 01:14 PM

The long-range GFS does have something at 7 days http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

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Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
"Nary an INVEST ..." / MJO's 'Incoherence' Notwithstanding [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85556 - Thu Jun 04 2009 01:58 PM

Yes, that GFS run does look mighty interesting. We'll have to see what successive model runs do with it. And if the other global models begin to chime in.

Also, one thing to keep in mind about the MJO Phenomena: Just because the MJO is 'weak' or even 'incoherent', DOES NOT mean that there will be NO tropical cyclones, or even necessarily 'supressed' cyclone activity.

And, while it's "generally true" than a strong MJO pulse propagating through a basin will tend to enchance rainfall patterns and convective activity (and therefore 'enhance' the probability of TC formation), the obverse is not necessarily true.

There are, of course, many other factors (other than the MJO) at work within the global ocean/atmosphere environment, leading to a basins' ability to produce warm core cyclones.

There are just so many other combinations of 'requisite factors' that can come together under myriad circumstances to allow tropical cyclogenesis to occur.

On page 16 of the aforementioned MJO "Expert Discussion" (link provided above) ...

" ... The evolution is most likely a result of a combination of subseasonal coherent tropical variability as opposed to a developing MJO."

I realize that this is a "quote taken out of context", but it seems to apply, especially in view of the 'One' Depression and several very interesting 'Invests' (eg: the 'Gulf Low' that was likely a tropical cyclone at landfall) that we've already seen this season. One that the "Post-Season Analysis Team" can scruitinize to their hearts' content. Such fascinating challenges. And to get paid for it, too!

But on the other hand, one must be mindful of the fact that the GFS is often too 'bullish' on possible TC formation, due to 'convective feedback processes' within the model, and often overdoes the occurance and strength of warm core systems, especially at days 5 and beyond.

Sometimes, my "Tea Leaf Readings" provide better forecasts at Day 7. Just Joking !!

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