MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Meanwhile, back to our regularly scheduled programming. 
Looks less likely that anything is going to develop in the SW Caribbean this week. Looks like the shear is winning for now. There is still some disorganized convection, but much less than previously.
-------------------- Michael
WU PWS
2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4
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Adam S
Unregistered
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What are the chances that this develops and if it does what is the time frame?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Right now, the chances are near zero for any further development due to the vertical shear. I don't expect to see anything from this area for now.
-------------------- Michael
WU PWS
2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4
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Adam S
Unregistered
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It looks like the area is getting better organized this afternoon. Does anyone think this low may develop yet?
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Adam:
See the preceeding posts regarding "shear". the shear can be seen on the visible satellite Carribean Images by the streaks of clouds from the SW to the NE.
There is generally too much shear throughout the tropics for any development over the immediate future.
-------------------- doug
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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So there is a 1012 low off the coast of Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
Positioned between two Highs.
Here is the closest Bouy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
Any chance we can get some substantial rain from this?
Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 19 2009 03:57 AM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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None, nada, zip. We're on the SW side and all it will do is funnel the dry air down over the state. Afternoon T-storms will prevail over the interior moving toward the Gulf coast later today. Until that high over the Gulf either dissolves or moves to the East, it will continue to be hot and mostly dry.
-------------------- Michael
WU PWS
2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Various model take storms of the EC and then have them make a loop back towards the coast.. Most likely not tropical, but the one is interesting as it takes the system into an area where there is some Gulf Stream support
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cg...;hour=Animation
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Of coarse I'm speaking of the Low closing in on the Mexican Coast in the Western BOC.
NHC has listed it as a INVEST:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
Here is the closet Bouy Link:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
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