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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 80 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Bay of Campeche
      #85643 - Mon Jun 22 2009 06:30 PM

In this afternoon's Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, the Hurricane Center has pointed out an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche.

It has a 20% chance or lower of actually forming, but it ends a quiet spell in the Atlantic Tropics. In the East Pacific, Andres has formed as well.

The system in the Bay of Campeche has a relatively short window to form, and likely it will not. It's mostly a mid-level system currently, and has no real organization at the surface. It's likely to enhance rain in Southern Texas, but probably won't affect the Houston area or northern Texas. Development isn't expected.



It hasn't been designated an official invest yet, so there are no models for it currently.

More to come as it occurs.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Loc: South Florida
Re: Bay of Campeche [Re: MikeC]
      #85644 - Mon Jun 22 2009 08:25 PM

It looks nice on some satellite imagery and it spins nice but Andres is near by and intensifying and I think it will have problems keeping the convection. If it does develop will be close in as it is going in.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

Fun to watch but the bigger show is in the Pacific I think. Still... right time of year for such a system/area of disturbed weather to be there.

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scottsvb
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: fl
Re: Bay of Campeche [Re: LoisCane]
      #85647 - Mon Jun 22 2009 10:35 PM

I would give it under a 10% chance of developing. Its nothing more than a surface trough northeast of Andres!

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Storm Hunter
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: NE GOM [Re: scottsvb]
      #85652 - Thu Jun 25 2009 10:55 AM

after that front came by... been watching the tail end of it and the GOM... appears to me that there may be a weak LOW in the NE GOM.... WNW of Tampa... South of Panama City.. data is kinda hinting that there may be a weak broad area... visible shows a wide surface spin in the clouds. Anyone else see what i'm talking about?

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2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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ClwStorm
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Re: NE GOM [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85653 - Thu Jun 25 2009 12:27 PM

Yes, there is a broad circulation there. You can pick it up on NWS radar out of Tampa. The waters off the west coast of Florida have been heating up the past few weeks.

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
NE GOM and Western Caribbean [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85654 - Thu Jun 25 2009 10:31 PM Attachment (379 downloads)

I looked at the NE and Mid GOM earlier today. Especially after the thunderstorm complex south of Mobile exploded at sunrise. Warm SSTs and the Sun probably exacerbated what was left of the system that dumped 1.85" of rain in Baldwin County,AL.

Of interest tonight is the moderate sized thunderstorm complex located in the Western Carribbean Sea.
The GFS hinted at this area a few days ago but was the sole model forecasting the development.

TWC went right to it tonight and Jim Cantore said it is being watched closely due to the TUTT to the north. Forecast to retrograde toward the west, and an upper level High is forecast to build in over the Western Caribbean system.
I believe the GFS forecast this system to build, cross the western tip of Cuba, and recurve through the Florida Straits. This was the 12Z forecast on June 23rd.

So far this is the only worthwhile mention of the forecast system.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
945 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

VALID 12Z MON JUN 29 2009 - 12Z THU JUL 02 2009
(edited~danielw)

...SOUTHEAST...
ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ULTIMATELY RETROGRADE UNDER ITS BASE...BRINGING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA FROM NEXT TUESDAY ONWARD.


Image courtesy of Colorado State

Edited by danielw (Thu Jun 25 2009 10:37 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Western Caribbean Friday AM [Re: danielw]
      #85655 - Fri Jun 26 2009 08:04 AM

NHC has upgraded the Western Caribbean system to a Low probability of Tropical Cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER
AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD INTO BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/260519.shtml


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