Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Disorganized tropical low off the northeast coast of Honduras near 17N 84.5W at 26/18Z with little movement - perhaps a NNW driift - windspeed at 20kts and pressure at 1008mb. Invest has a good convective envelope with outflow improving in the Northeast quadrant. SST is about 27C with 28-29C north of the system.
System is under modest Northerly windshear and that shear is expected to continue for the next 48 to 72 hours (perhaps even longer). Weak upper level flow is projected to be more to the North rather than the West. Given the shear, the current SHIPs intensity model seems overdone beyond the 72hr point. If the system develops further (about a 50/50 probability), forward motion should be more to the NNW then NNE and the system could pass through the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and the western tip of Cuba.
I'd anticipate that additional development would be slower in the SE Gulf of Mexico because of the persistent upper level windshear. Eventual track adjustments more to the right seem more likely than to the left. The first name on the list this season is Ana.
ED
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
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Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
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Can you explain your reasoning for thinking it will shift more East early on?
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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"If the system develops further (about a 50/50 probability), forward motion should be more to the NNW then NNE"
The key word of course is 'If", but a system that develops is influenced more by the mid to upper level flow (in this case a weak southerly flow) rather than the low level flow of a disorganized easterly wave (in this case an east southeast to southeast flow).
Movement will also depend on how rapidly the ridge to the northwest of the system develops vs the trough to the northeast of the system. If the ridge prevails the system should move more to the northwest, however, if the trough prevails the system should eventually move more northeast. Currently the low level tropical model suite moves the system to the northwest whereas the deeper models (HWRF, ) that incorporate the upper level flow eventually move the system to the northeast. Hope that this helps.
ED
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
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Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
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Yeah that's what I was looking for  Not questioning if you are "right" or not, just always curious to hear the reasonings behind things.
I was pretty sure I understood about the trough vs. the ridge, but didn't know if you had other things you were looking at, which you did.
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docrod
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
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Yes - agreed - this seems so early for a right hand hook at that latitude. I picked up on that model this afternoon in the office and passed it around (with smiles). I would hope to understand something about the validity of this particular model run by Saturday afternoon. Here in the Keys, I'm not concerned about this one tonight but for two caveats - (1) the remarkable "spin ups" of tropical systems that have recently occurred in this area (e.g.; near the Dry Tortugas) and (2) that the paradigms seem to be shifting .... take care - Rod
Edited by docrod (Fri Jun 26 2009 08:01 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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It's also a track similar to Alma in 66. Honestly though until there is a real defined center and exact cords the models will be off and rectified later... if it develops. I see the bend to the right more too... would be nice to see it give some much needed rain along the Gulf and yet not too much bad weather.
Convection today is more centered around the low pressure and it has a nice pocket and the look of a blossoming system.. if the shear dies down .... watch out.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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docrod
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
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New model posts out - more suggestion of a Florida connection ....
HWRF
GFDL
I'm certain everyone is familiar with these links.
Models suggest a slowing of forward speed midway in each model. That slow down of course raises uncertainty.
Tomorrow afternoon is still my point for a lot of action or to continue monitoring. - take care
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