MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4440
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This July will likely be without much if any tropical activity, El niƱo is likely to keep activity quiet in August. There is not much going on (other than a wave in the Central Atlantic that has much more going against it than for it).
To keep to the side of Hurricanes without the Hype, it's important to remember. Hurricanes and Tropical storms are not the norm. A few to quite many form a year in the Atlantic, depending on the overall conditions around the area. The best way to approach development projections is to look for everything going against development rather than stretching to find things in favor of it. When the reasons for lack of development drop off, then is the time to really look.
Atlantic storm tracking is not a sport, it's an activity and risk associated with living along or near the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf coasts. Nature is something you cannot stop, but in the form of Hurricanes, at least you can be well aware of it. Flhurricane focuses on storm information and interpreting it in order to try to avoid the hype that happens all too often with media and some internet sites. Official data is most important of all, but if you are looking for more, it's important to know the motivations of those giving it. This site is donation ran (which hardly ever covers the costs) mostly as a learning exercise and is not attempting to gather popularity by drumming up every swirl in the Atlantic or by making radical statements without being backed up.
I hope everyone does take a look at all the various links on the internet and judge for yourself where to find information. The biggest problem with it is the focus, you really want to know how a storm affects you and your family/business, etc. It has nothing to do with us here or the site, and that's the approach we take here. We would much rather have no storms at all to track in a year than a major event like in 2005, or the 4 Florida systems in 2004.
This very focused attitude of the site may not work for everyone, but it's the only way to keep it relevant in the critical days before a storm in trying to keep the noise down. Local media and government is always better for an immediate local area, but longer term planning should take into account first the and other official sources, with supplemental information from sites like these.
2009 has been slow so far, but it could change, and when it does we'll tell you why something may not happen instead of trying to stretch what may to bring in the hype.
Hopefully the quiet July will continue.
97L Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 97L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 97L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ill be honest. I want Tropical Storms and Hurricanes... not a Cat 3 or higher coming into my town or anywhere.. but I want to see them develop. I think probably 90% on here also cause they love weather and are interested in Hurricanes. We just dont want to see anything as a strong Cat 2 or worse coming ashore.
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Chumply
Unregistered
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Well Well Well. What an interesting feature in mid atlantic. Euro, and seem to think it has a chance.
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Chumply
Unregistered
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Quote:
Ill be honest. I want Tropical Storms and Hurricanes... not a Cat 3 or higher coming into my town or anywhere.. but I want to see them develop. I think probably 90% on here also cause they love weather and are interested in Hurricanes. We just dont want to see anything as a strong Cat 2 or worse coming ashore.
Honestly, I cannot wait for the day technology makes these things terrible storms extinct. One day it wll happen.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4440
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Well Well Well. What an interesting feature in mid atlantic. Euro, and seem to think it has a chance.
This system is approaching a shear area that won't allow it to develop. Too many things going against this one to really give it a chance, this area of the atlantic maybe a few weeks from now into August, but chances are too low to mention at the moment.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Hey Mike,
I was looking at the loop of Central Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ft.html
I was also looking at the shear map (Mid Level ) for today:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html
Right now it looks like the mess is traveling NNW at around 12N 35W
The shear looks like it really gets going at 20N 40W
It sure looks like it it gets any slack it would try to give it a go.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4440
Loc: Orlando, FL
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At best a blob watch which will probably get looked at because nothing else has happened in a while. The system closer to Africa has a slightly better shot, but these are a huge long way from becoming a tropical cyclone and conditions out ahead just aren't there yet.
If you take the for example, just as the storm may get into a position to actually develop it will run into that shear wall.
If it persists beyond a day, then it becomes worth watching. It probably won't since there are still too many things against it right now. One thing it does have, is plenty of moisture (the eastern system anyway)
At least blob watchers have a few things to look at this week.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/ft-l.jpg
Pretty impressive development... really pulled together a lot today. Let's see if it sustains itself..
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Honestly, I cannot wait for the day technology makes these things terrible storms extinct. One day it wll happen.
Tropical storms are a necessary component to a balanced global climate. Stopping their development will certainly have a negative impact.
-------------------- Michael
WU PWS
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/ft-l.jpg
Pretty impressive development... really pulled together a lot today. Let's see if it sustains itself..
Looks a bit ragged today as is to be expected with systems coming off the African continent.
Closer to home, there is a surge in the low and mid-level easterlies which can be seen in the Atlantic visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html (freeze the last frame and turn on the wind analysis)
It's also noted on the Saharan Air Layer analysis:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time=
And analyzed as a trop wave:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
It appears to have a fair amount of dust, too.
-------------------- Michael
WU PWS
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Crownweather is talking about the possibility of a Bahamas/SE US storm next week. Anyone give any credence to this http://crownweather.com/?page_id=325
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Crownweather is talking about the possibility of a Bahamas/SE US storm next week. Anyone give any credence to this http://crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Non of the models are indicating anything developing there or anywhere else for the next week. No, I don't give credence to that guesscast.
-------------------- Michael
WU PWS
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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I know it's not everyone's favorite model, but the latest Canadian run does show a system on the west coast of FL http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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That is a twelve day forecast. Watch to see if the starts to forecast the same thing then we may have something to look for.
Personally I'm grateful for the lack of intensity, but continue to hope for several systems to influence the peninsula to rebuild the reservoirs. Still over 10 inches below normal rainfall this year and about 30 or so in the last couple. Not good!
-------------------- doug
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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It says it's 144 hrs, or 6 days....is the starting point later than today..is there some other way to read it?
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
It says it's 144 hrs, or 6 days....is the starting point later than today..is there some other way to read it?
Basically, you look for a persistent feature over several model runs. I take anything beyond 72 hours with a grain of salt, though.
-------------------- Michael
WU PWS
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Crownweather is talking about the possibility of a Bahamas/SE US storm next week. Anyone give any credence to this http://crownweather.com/?page_id=325
No, I don't give credence to that guesscast.
Take another look...
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Take another look...
Looked again. Still see nothing other than maybe a non-tropical low forming on the frontal trough over the northern Gulf, north FL and then moving up the Atlantic coast. Too much vertical shear persisting over the Carib and the Bahamas.
-------------------- Michael
WU PWS
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johnnylightning
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Saint Petersburg, FL
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I know that I can trust y'all for the most clear and knowledgeable info available when I am preparing my hurricane contingencies. You speak your minds and provide a great service at a critical time. Your experience is priceless and your advice is without hype.
Thanks!
Johnny Lightning
-------------------- Semper Fi
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